ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[StPeteMike]

Publix in Saint Augustine was dead at 5:00. Not a good sign. Plenty of bread, deli, meat, seafood. Fully stocked.

I work at Publix in St Pete and compared to Friday and Thursday, Saturday was almost a normal Saturday.

I've heard the same for others.

I used to work at 866 in Clearwater and 705 in Largo, which store are you at?

28 in downtown. We got 10 pallets of 24 bottles Spring on Thursday night and blew through them Friday.

[Stormi]

So how the people in Florida are reacting now that the NHC don´t show a landfall in Florida but Dorian's movement seem to show another thing? they are still prepared in general?

I fought hard for my generator, & am holding all supplies - as things can change...What scares me more than anything is how many people were either returning items needed or taking down shutters yesterday. I hope they're keeping updated...Just in case. IF & it would be a serious opps, the models can't handle this storm's intensity, I believe some out here would be caught off-guard.

[Bocadude85]

https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168033130260787201

and so it begins

That’s very impressive considering it’s just the first band, even if Dorian stays off the coast of SE Fla rainbands like that will be rotating ashore.

[Chris90]

In regards to the intensity debate, I think what these storms over the past few years have been showing us is that the eyewall profile can really favor the lower levels (and quite often does in my opinion). I think there's been a lot of evidence to show that it is not unreasonable for SFMR to exceed the 700mb or 750mb flight level.

One of my favorite pieces of data are the eyewall dropsondes, and I like to look and see how the winds change as it descends. Sometimes you'll see big drops over small distances, like 160kts at 921mb and then 140kts at 925mb, and sometimes you'll see much smaller differences over larger distances, like 165kts at 920mb, and 162kts at 935mb, indicating strong winds are maintaining fairly consistently over a thicker chunk of the eyewall.
NOTE: Those values stated above are not from any dropsonde in Dorian, they are just values I made up as an example to illustrate my point.

Now, getting to REAL Dorian data. That dropsonde in the NW eyewall that measured 155kts at the surface is strong evidence to me that verifies the Cat 5 SFMR values, and not just because of the 155kts at the surface, which was 955mb. The strongest wind it measured was 170kts at 881mb, and EVERY single value between the 170kts at 881mb and the 155kts at 955mb (surface) was above 140kts. That's 140kt readings through the entirety of the 74mb layer above and to the surface. The only Cat 4 readings that occurred were above 881mb closer to the flight level, which would explain lower flight level winds than SFMR.

I respectfully disagree with the NHC, but I think some are being too harsh on them with this. Their job is so exceptionally stressful, especially at times like this, and they have to focus on more than just intensity data. They're trying to provide millions of people with the best info they can to ensure the safety of all individuals in the path of this storm. There's so much that goes into their job, so I think it's important to remember how much easier it is for all of us to sit here and make judgments. We're not in their position, and they have those positions for a reason. They're the best at what they do, and they work really hard. Thanks to them and all the other pro-mets we have for the hard work they do, and I hope when this hurricane season is over ya'll get a really nice break with some exquisite R&R.

[StPeteMike]

NHC calling it 8!

I ran the numbers from the first recon position 5 hours ago to the most recent. it came to nearly 12 mph.

That was the reason for my question. It seemed to have picked up speed. Not good. If this somehow hits Florida, its going to leave a bad taste in the mouths of many. I fear we have gotten too confidant in models. The NHC would likely take a pounding. I imagine they are on pins and needles.

Miami area is around 197 miles from Abaco Islands. At 12 mph, Miami would start seeing squalls from Dorian by 5 pm today, that’s if nothing changes. NHC better hope something changes shortly.

[STRiZZY]

I work at Publix in St Pete and compared to Friday and Thursday, Saturday was almost a normal Saturday.

I've heard the same for others.

I used to work at 866 in Clearwater and 705 in Largo, which store are you at?

28 in downtown. We got 10 pallets of 24 bottles Spring on Thursday night and blew through them Friday.

Would have loved to unload that truck

[psyclone]

I remember the paranoia when Floyd was moving through the Bahamas. they said it would turn and sure enough it did. I'm expecting the same thing here but it sure is unnerving until it actually happens..

[StPeteMike]

Would have loved to unload that truck

Today’s was 27 pallets, 10 being just gallons of Publix spring water haha I was exhausted after today.

[ConvergenceZone]

EURO more west at 48 hours. We'll see where the North turn happens this time.....Jump on over to the models thread...

[caneman]

I remember the paranoia when Floyd was moving through the Bahamas. they said it would turn and sure enough it did. I'm expecting the same thing here but it sure is unnerving until it actually happens..

Yep. Thus setup has happened many times and every time the NHC was right while the masses were sweating bullets

[CronkPSU]

EURO more west....Jump on over to the models thread...

all the all clear posts after GFS are cancelled...again...

[Sanibel]

2:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.3°N 75.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 934 mb
Max sustained: 150 mph

Big pressure drop...Making a run at category 5 on approach to Abaco...

[rdcrds]

Looks sw. doesn’t matter, probably old data. Nhc saw tech and gs 0z runs, all east


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[rdcrds]

Ahhh 72. Due north, that was close


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[KBBOCA]

Ahhh 72. Due north, that was close


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This run of the Euro takes the idea of a coast hugger or coast scraper pretty literally.... would be nerve wracking to watch every wobble.

What was the closest Matthew got to the EC of FL? I seem to recall it brushing the Cape?

[STRiZZY]

Ahhh 72. Due north, that was close


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I can only see 24hr plots but from 48 to 72 it looks NNW to me.. but that could just be from the missing time-frames.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks sw. doesn’t matter, probably old data. Nhc saw tech and gs 0z runs, all east


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No, this is new data from G-IV.

[Aric Dunn]

Expect warning for the FLorida east coast by the 5am advisory

[Jr0d]

I found a loop of Floyd just to compare the synoptics vs Dorian. I slowed the video to 0.25 to get a better idea of how the north turn played out.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=g0sXyflXQCQ

Obviously a much different set up that Dorian, however John Hope's follow the cirrus clouds seemed to predict the north turn.

[KBBOCA]

Expect warning for the FLorida east coast by the 5am advisory

I hope so, really. Right now the uncertainty is still high and the westward trend of many models means people can't sit back and think they're off the hook. Warnings will hopefully keep more folks vigilant and empower emergency managers to issue evacuations for vulnerable areas.