ATL: DORIAN - Models

[NDG]

Yep, HWRF looks to stay on its previous forecast track so far.
I am staying up tonight to watch the Euro, curious to see what it does after the collected data around Dorian.

[caneman]

Am I correct in saying that every model pushed West except for the GFS?

[shah83]

UK also held serve, if not exactly moved much east.

[AxaltaRacing24]

Am I correct in saying that every model pushed West except for the GFS?

and icon

[caneman]

Am I correct in saying that every model pushed West except for the GFS?

and icon

Icon is still very close to landfall right?
Generally speaking it seems on average we now have landfall or just 30 or 40 miles off shore as an average of models?
In totality has there been some what of a move west on average by models when compared to last night?

[tarheelprogrammer]

HWRF looks slightly NE

[La Sirena]

Am I correct in saying that every model pushed West except for the GFS?

and icon

I didn’t think the UKMet moved west.....

[Jerry]

The GFS had some of the new data in the 18Z and it moved more west and the 0Z was fairly close to the 18z.. I think it will be telling if the EURO moves west tonight.

[NDG]

Through 51 hrs is very similar to its earlier 18z run, maybe 5 miles east.

Edit: I spoke too soon, at 58 hrs it makes a nice jog to the north, now about 10-15 miles NE from its 18z position.

[AutoPenalti]

Through 51 hrs is very similar to its earlier 18z run, maybe 5 miles east.

Edit: I spoke too soon, at 58 hrs it makes a nice jog to the north, now about 10-15 miles NE from its 18z position.

What run is that?

[AdamFirst]

HWRF is on its way toward the coast once again after a strange little wobble in the 50 hour range.

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF is on its way toward the coast once again after a strange little wobble in the 50 hour range.

Correct. Here is a close up




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[NDG]

Through 51 hrs is very similar to its earlier 18z run, maybe 5 miles east.

Edit: I spoke too soon, at 58 hrs it makes a nice jog to the north, now about 10-15 miles NE from its 18z position.

What run is that?

0z HWRF, fairly similar to its earlier 18z run, just a tad east, 5-10 miles.

[sponger]

HRWF landfall near Port Orange! An absolute disaster for North Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=78

[AdamFirst]

That wobble on the HWRF spared an impact point from the core south of the Cape. Looked like it was going in there.

Edit: HWRF, not GFS

[Stormi]

HRWF landfall near Port Orange! An absolute disaster for North Florida.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 0100&fh=78

No thank you

[TheProfessor]

0z HWRF is pretty similar to it's 18z run towards the mid to late hours.

[ConvergenceZone]

Here comes the EURO

[sponger]

Here comes the EURO

Looks like plenty of ridging to start. No surprise.

[STRiZZY]

ECMWF initializing at 990??

I know it's usually off but wow..