WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[Cunxi Huang]

[Highteeld]

WMG pixels have been more consistent in the eye over the last hour. Upgrade back to cat 5/140 knots would seem prudent for 18z -- although 145 knots with the latest AMSU would work too.

[Cunxi Huang]

JMA all 7.0.

24 019111 CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
25 019112 DATA TROPICAL (DT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
26 019113 CLOUD PATTERN TYPE OF THE DT- NUMBER 3
27 019114 MODEL EXPECTED TROPICAL (MET) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
28 019115 TREND OF PAST 24-HOUR CHANGE (+: DEVELOPED, -: WEAKENED) 0.0
29 019116 PATTERN TROPICAL (PT) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0
30 019117 CLOUD PICTURE TYPE OF THE PT- NUMBER 1
31 019118 FINAL TROPICAL (T) NUMBER OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE 7.0

[Highteeld]

Eye temperature really starting to increase:

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181636550922125312

[Highteeld]

https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181636550922125312?s=21

I remember that. AMSU went nuts and put out something like 170 knots for Yutu after the ERC. So weird how the JWTC increased the 2nd peak to 150 knots and downgraded the first to 150 knots.

[Highteeld]

Rapid increase in WMG over the last hour:

[Hayabusa]

Maintains at 915 mb

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°20' (19.3°)
E140°55' (140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

[Hayabusa]

140

20W HAGIBIS 191008 1800 19.2N 140.8E WPAC 140 909

[Highteeld]

[CryHavoc]

Maintains at 915 mb

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°20' (19.3°)
E140°55' (140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

Amazing that structurally it looks a full 20 knots weaker than it did yesterday and still is operationally the exact same storm. Just unreal.

[cheezyWXguy]

Maintains at 915 mb

TY 1919 (Hagibis)
Issued at 18:50 UTC, 8 October 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 8 October>
Scale Large
Intensity Violent
Center position N19°20' (19.3°)
E140°55' (140.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (12 kt)
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 240 km (130 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 650 km (350 NM)

Amazing that structurally it looks a full 20 knots weaker than it did yesterday and still is operationally the exact same storm. Just unreal.

Agreed. Yesterday’s initial peak was severely underestimated in the official advisories

[Hayabusa]

This is looking like Japan's literally the biggest storm of the year , how strong I don't know maybe a safe bet at least a strong cat 1. I wouldn't be surprised if it is stronger than that, or even as strong or stronger than Faxai.

[Highteeld]

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 082100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
015//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 337 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE NEWLY FORMED PRIMARY EYEWALL CONTRACTING INTO A FAIRLY
SYMMETRIC, 20 NM DIAMETER EYE WHILE A BROAD AREA OF CONVECTIVE
BANDING CONTINUES TO WRAP TIGHTLY INTO THE SYSTEMS CENTER. THERE IS
GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. A 081932Z SSMIS 91GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE (ERC) IS
COMPLETE AND THAT THE PREVIOUS EYEWALL HAS FULLY DISSIPATED. BASED ON
THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE STRUCTURE AND DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI)
ESTIMATES OF T6.5/127 KTS FROM PGTW, T7.0/140 KTS FROM RJTD, AND
T6.9/137 KTS FROM ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT), THE INITIAL
INTENSITY ESTIMATE IS SET AT 140 KTS, FURTHER CORROBORATED BY THE
SATELLITE CONSENSUS INTENSITY ESTIMATE. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS
SUSTAINED STRONG RADIAL OUTFLOW, ENHANCED TOWARDS THE EAST AND SOUTH.
AN AREA OF DRY AIR WITH HIGH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) TO THE NORTH
OF THE SYSTEM IS INHIBITING DEVELOPMENT OF A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL. WITH LOW (05-10 KTS) VWS AND WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST), STY 20W REMAINS IN A FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT. STY 20W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD UNDER
THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. AFTER TAU 24, A PASSING MIDLATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH WILL
CAUSE THE STR TO RE-ORIENT, ALLOWING STY 20W TO TURN TO A MORE
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS IT ROUNDS THE RIDGE AXIS. WITH LOW VWS,
HIGH SST, AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW, THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS
EXPECTED TO PERSIST. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS MORE
AGGRESSIVE THAN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DUE TO THE POSSIBILITY
OF SLIGHT RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE NEW EYE MAY CONTRACT FURTHER.
ADDITIONALLY, THERE MAY BE A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED POLEWARD
OUTFLOW DUE TO TROUGH INTERACTION. AFTERWARDS, GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED AS THE OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BE SHEARED BY THE TROUGH. GFS AND
THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS WHILE THE NAVGEM AND
AFUM SOLUTIONS ARE THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS, CREATING VARIATION IN
THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE. THE OFFICIAL JTWC FORECAST IS PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, LENDING GOOD CONFIDENCE TO THIS PORTION OF
THE TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED PERIOD, A SHORTWAVE TROUGH OVER JAPAN WILL MOVE
THROUGH THE AREA, AGAIN ERODING THE STR AND ALLOWING STY 20W TO
RECURVE AFTER TAU 72. THE SYSTEM WILL SLOWLY WEAKEN IN RESPONSE TO
INCREASING VWS AFTER TAU 72, OFFSETTING THE OTHERWISE FAVORABLE
ENVIRONMENT. AS STY 20W APPROACHES HONSHU, LAND INTERACTION MAY BEGIN
TO ERODE THE SYSTEMS INTENSITY. AT TAU 120, AS STY 20W BEGINS
INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINIC ZONE, THE SYSTEM WILL ACCELERATE TO
THE NORTHEAST AND BEGIN EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION. THROUGHOUT THE
EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, CROSS-TRACK AGREEMENT IS GOOD, WITH
APPROXIMATELY 180 NM OF SPREAD. HOWEVER, THE TIMING OF THE RECURVE
AND EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION VARY BETWEEN MODELS; THUS, THERE IS 700
NM OF ALONG TRACK SPREAD AT TAU 120, WITH NAVGEM REMAINING THE
SLOWEST AND MOST WESTWARD MODEL, AND GFS, THE GFS ENSEMBLE, AND JGSM
SIGNIFICANTLY FASTER THAN AND EAST OF THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. THE
JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY WESTWARD TO BE PLACED NEAR
THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL TIMING OF
THE RECURVE AND ALONG-TRACK SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS
PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

HWRF 18Z has Hagibis as a sub 900 mb up to 18 tau

[Highteeld]

[Nancy Smar]

CIMSS TROPICAL CYCLONE INTENSITY CONSENSUS FOR 20W (20W) 2019
CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10082139
SATCON: MSLP = 900 hPa MSW = 156 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 147.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 150 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 235 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -0.3 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 908 hPa 137 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT082210
CIMSS AMSU: 897 hPa 156 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10081203
ATMS: 928.0 hPa 126.6 knots Date: 10071524
SSMIS: 893.0 hPa 155.0 knots Date: 10082139
CIRA ATMS: 939 hPa 111 knots Date:

[Highteeld]

Anyone have a guess for 00z update?

[Nancy Smar]

2019-10-09 00:00 UTC

- Hagibis (1919) -
Position: 19.82N 140.40E
CI: 7.0 / DT: 7.0
MET: 7.0 / PT: 7.0
FT: 7.0

JMA still all 7.0.