ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[FLeastcoast]

My Mom lives in Hollywood only about 3 miles from the beach. Do you think I should tell her to leave? She keeps telling me that there is nothing to worry about since the city officials have not called for evacuation.[/quote]

She should be fine there. Winds 20-30 mph. Very little tidal increase, maybe 1-2 ft. Dorian is going to slow down significantly this afternoon/evening then begin a slow turn to the NNW.

Thank you very much

[supercane4867]

[ObsessedMiami]

i think there should be voluntary evacs on the east coast. Mets should definitely be honest and say”We think it’s going to stay off our coast because of current thinking. Here is the current thinking. Then tell them the impacts on the coast even though eye stays offshore. Then show video of cat 4 almost 5 michael and it’s devastation to really alert people of what a cat 5 can do and then say, Current thinking is just that, current thinking. Folks just because it’s forecasted offshore doesn’t mean it’s not coming on shore. It is too close to call. If u feel like u could be in danger, then go to a place of safety. It’s not worth taking a chance with your life or your family’s life. We don’t want to overhype it yet we don’t want to underestimate the potential danger either.

Some people would listen to that and head out. others would want to wait to see exactly what Dorian wants to do til it’s too late. it’s about communicating the severity of this situation. if they aren’t communicating that and all people know is the eye is staying offshore, people will go about their business and say, well it’s staying offshore so no big deal. Only TS warning that doesn’t sound bad. So obviously tv mets are erring on the side of it’s not coming onshore but not telling them what the impacts will be thereby minimizing the danger of this cat 5 storm.

To be fair to TV Mets, they are only following the lead of the NHC here. They really can’t go out on a limb and contradict the NHC forecast. The NHC has to take the lead in what you are suggesting, and so far, they haven’t, or are confident they don’t need to. I hope they are right.

[abajan]

It's official. Cat 5. (But, of course!)

[supercane4867]

Bahamas radar

[Joe Snow]

8:00 am up date Dorian now a CAT 5 Hurricane

[Weatherboy1]

Just for some perspective, Dorian is now just 5 mph shy of what Hurricane Andrew was when he slammed into Florida in 1992 (according to re-analysis work done years after the storm). Fortunately for FL, the OFFICIAL forecast track is different than Andrew. But considering some models are showing the turn occurring as little as 50-ish miles off Palm Beach County, I am following this VERY closely. Models aren't 100% accurate down to the mile even a day or two out. Look at Irma, Irene, Wilma, Matthew, etc. - only small deviations from forecast track ended up resulting in much different locations suffering the worst damage.

[chris_fit]

Anyone chasing this thing in the Bahamas? Any live reports on Periscope or what not?

[stormsurf]

On the beach in south PBC. No wind, ocean is still flat. Earlier this am I thought the storm was moving @290 and now I see back to 275. Was I mistaken earlier? I think the NHC Director said it best that they are confident but everyone in the cone should be ready to go.

[gatorcane]

06Z Euro shifts slightly west again on the turn. See models thread.

[ronjon]

I think it would be prudent for the NHC to at least post a Hurricane watch for a portion of the Florida east coast at their next advisory - perhaps they will. Or I suppose they could wait for the 12z suite of models. Any further westward shifts from the models this cycle, and I think a Hurricane warning goes up along the Florida east coast.

[supercane4867]

Anyone chasing this thing in the Bahamas? Any live reports on Periscope or what not?

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1168068156180615168

[Airboy]

Have Bahamas had any Cat 5s hitting them before?

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/extremestorms/status/1168012744924073984



These guys need to stay safe...

[TallyTracker]

Radar is showing what appears to be the beginnings of an EWRC. There is a moat starting to show up outside the eyewall. May weaken Dorian slightly, could increase the wind radius as well.

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[edu2703]

Have Bahamas had any Cat 5s hitting them before?

1932 Bahamas Hurricane

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Structure continues to improve. Dorian could go sub 920mb today.

[northjaxpro]

I think it would be prudent for the NHC to at least post a Hurricane watch for a portion of the Florida east coast at their next advisory - perhaps they will. Or I suppose they could wait for the 12z suite of models. Any further westward shifts from the models this cycle, and I think a Hurricane warning goes up along the Florida east coast.

Agree with you Hammy

[HurricaneFrances04]

INIT 01/0300Z 26.3N 75.1W 130 KT 150 MPH
12H 01/1200Z 26.4N 76.3W 135 KT 155 MPH

8:00 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.5°W

About a 14 mile between between the 11 pm forecasted position and the actual 8 am position. Not that big, but they can add up.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/extremestorms/status/1168012744924073984
These guys need to stay safe...

Hope Town which is on the northern end of Elbow Cay which is also where the Elbow Cay Lighthouse is. Praying for these folks!