ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AlabamaDave]

The only "good" news for the Bahamas is that Freeport, with over 50,000 people in its metropolitan area, is on the west end of Grand Bahama and not projected to get the worst of Dorian's winds (although they will get an extremely long period of being in the area of hurricane force winds, so only a very thin silver lining). Also, 70% of Bahamians live in Nassau (over 200,000 people), which is well away from the core of the storm. Hopefully the few people who live in the areas being hit evacuated well away.

[EquusStorm]

175/922

[HurricaneEnzo]

Pressure 922 winds 175mph.....

Sent from my SM-N975U using Tapatalk

[Hypercane_Kyle]

..CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...
9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

[TexasF6]

175MPH PER TWC!!!!! NHC DIRECTOR

[Bad_Hurricane]

Hurricane Dorian Tropical Cyclone Update
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
930 AM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...CATASTROPHIC CATEGORY 5 DORIAN CONTINUING TO INTENSIFY AS IT
APPROACHES THE ABACO ISLANDS...

Data from an Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter aircraft indicate
that Dorian has continued to intensify, and now has maximum
sustained winds near 175 mph (280 km/h), with a minimum central
pressure of 922 mb (27.23 inches).

The eyewall of catastrophic Hurricane Dorian is currently reaching
the Abaco Islands. This is a life-threatening situation. Residents
there should take immediate shelter. Do not venture into the eye if
it passes over your location.

Hazards:
- Wind Gusts over 200 mph
- Storm Surge 15 to 20 feet above normal tide levels with higher
destructive waves

These hazards will cause extreme destruction in the affected areas.
and will continue for several hours.


SUMMARY OF 930 AM EDT...1330 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.5N 76.6W
ABOUT 25 MI...40 KM ENE OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 210 MI...340 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...175 MPH...280 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 275 DEGREES AT 8 MPH...13 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...922 MB...27.73 INCHES

$$
Forecaster Brennan/Blake/Zelinsky/Avila

[KWT]

well now 7 hours of sleep and still chugging west.. I suppose im not surprised..

It isn’t suppose to slow down until tomorrow morning I believe.

Most models show a dramatic slow down pretty much now...

Winds upto 175mph now I see...

[hurricaneCW]

NHC will likely bump him up to 170-175mph at 11am, the data and continued pressure falls support it.

If you're wondering why the pressure isn't closer to 900mb that's because Dorian's a relatively modest sized hurricane.

Ok nvm the NHC isn't shy about the quick update.

[MetroMike]

Wow-what a beast. I am very surprised that NHC didn't push at least Hurricane Watches in Florida. I feel like models always have issues with these monster storms.

For now Tropical storm watches will suffice.
They will go from there and upgrade as needed.

[edu2703]

NHC will likely bump him up to 170-175mph at 11am

NHC already did it

[Aric Dunn]

well now 7 hours of sleep and still chugging west.. I suppose im not surprised..

It isn’t suppose to slow down until tomorrow morning I believe.

Most models show a dramatic slow down pretty much now...

Winds upto 175mph now I see...

and all models except the Euro continue to show wnw motion.. its clearly has not been doing that.

[supercane4867]

These people staying on the islands have nowhere to go. Very bad situation

[hurricaneCW]

The only "good" news for the Bahamas is that Freeport, with over 50,000 people in its metropolitan area, is on the west end of Grand Bahama and not projected to get the worst of Dorian's winds (although they will get an extremely long period of being in the area of hurricane force winds, so only a very thin silver lining). Also, 70% of Bahamians live in Nassau (over 200,000 people), which is well away from the core of the storm. Hopefully the few people who live in the areas being hit evacuated well away.

The Euro rolls Dorian over Grand Bahama island from east to west, I don't think Freeport escapes anything.

[AutoPenalti]

It isn’t suppose to slow down until tomorrow morning I believe.

Most models show a dramatic slow down pretty much now...

Winds upto 175mph now I see...

and all models except the Euro continue to show wnw motion.. its clearly has not been doing that.

Hmm, then I’d give a few more hours

[supercane4867]

9:30 AM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.5°N 76.6°W
Moving: W at 8 mph
Min pressure: 922 mb
Max sustained: 175 mph

150kt and 922mb, exactly the same as Andrew at peak intensity, and it's still getting stronger!

[Chris90]

Just recently there was an unflagged 170kt SFMR reading...
I'm shocked. I didn't ever expect Dorian to outperform Irma at a recon level. One of the dropsondes recorded a gust of 194kts descending to the surface.

[StormPyrate]

Going down fast, Radio out of Freeport.
http://streema.com/radios/play/Radio_Bahamas_ZNS_3

[northjaxpro]

Perfection

https://i.imgur.com/1Upyz0H.gif

https://i.imgur.com/DweIIVQ.jpg

I have lived here all my life and i have never seen such an extremely well organized tropical cyvlone so powerful.just off.our coast. RIight now at this writing, Dorian is stronger than what Hugo, Mattthew, and Floyd were on approach., the big major hurricanes that threatened Jax the past 20-30 years. It is frightening to really process in full. Just an incredible cyclone no doubt about it!!

[MetroMike]

It isn’t suppose to slow down until tomorrow morning I believe.

Most models show a dramatic slow down pretty much now...

Winds upto 175mph now I see...

and all models except the Euro continue to show wnw motion.. its clearly has not been doing that.

NHC says westward motion will continue through the day.
No surprise here.

[ronjon]

well now 7 hours of sleep and still chugging west.. I suppose im not surprised..

Aric 06z Euro even further west than 00z. Check out NDGs post with the simulated radar from the 06z Euro...hurricane force winds forecast very close to east coast beaches.