WPAC: HAGIBIS - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

JTWC will either maintain 140 or go >= 145

[Highteeld]

Remained at 140, dropped 1 mb.

20W HAGIBIS 191009 0000 19.8N 140.3E WPAC 140 908

[1900hurricane]

I think 140 kt is ok again for 00Z. Microwave estimates are all higher (around 155 kt actually), but 89 GHz imagery reveals a weak outer eyewall feature just outside the primary eyewall. With how weak and close in to the primary eyewall it is, it might be a meld candidate, but it's probably keeping the winds a little lower than they would be otherwise. Visible imagery looks slightly skeletal vs the large CDO seen earlier, so that's another hint of that feature.

[euro6208]

Seems like Hagibis cannot go above 140 knots Utterly fail by satellite estimates.

[Highteeld]

Eye temperature starting to notably increase. Wouldn't be surprised if it's near 19*C at the 110z ADT analysis.

[Highteeld]

Eye temperature starting to notably increase. Wouldn't be surprised if it's near 19*C at the 110z ADT analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/8etPK8Q.png

Modest increase

2019OCT09 011000 6.9 907.9 137.4 6.6 6.6 6.6 NO LIMIT ON OFF OFF OFF 18.41 -71.87 EYE 30 IR 68.8 19.98 -140.28 ARCHER HIM-8 23.4

[1900hurricane]

Reminds me quite a bit of peak Trami '18 right now.

[Highteeld]

[CryHavoc]

Eye temperature starting to notably increase. Wouldn't be surprised if it's near 19*C at the 110z ADT analysis.

https://i.imgur.com/8etPK8Q.png

That is a damned symmetrical donut shape. Could rapidly deepen overnight and get a full CDG ring again. Storms that have "the look" tend to be ready to go nuclear. Weird to talk about a 140kt storm getting ready to go nuts, but hey, that's the WPAC for you.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 090300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 20W (HAGIBIS) WARNING NR
016//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (HAGIBIS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 305 NM
SOUTH OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS (KTS) OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI)
DEPICTS A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC EYE WITH CONVECTIVE BANDING
WRAPPING INTO THE CENTER. STY 20W HAS MAINTAINED A 20 NM DIAMETER
EYE, SUPPORTING GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION. HOWEVER, THE
IMMEDIATE EXTENT OF THE CIRRUS SHIELD HAS DECREASED IN THE PAST SIX
HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS SET AT 140 KTS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE
BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATES OF T7.0/140 KTS FROM
PGTW/RJTD/RCTP ALONG WITH A 090033Z SATELLITE CONSENSUS OF 152 KTS
AND A 090110Z ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE (ADT) ESTIMATE OF T6.9/137
KTS. UPPER-LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD AND EASTWARD
OUTFLOW WITH DEVELOPMENT OF A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL AS A TROUGH
PASSES TO THE NORTH. THE OVERALL ENVIRONMENT REMAINS FAVORABLE FOR
BRIEF DEVELOPMENT WITH LOW (10-15 KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) AND
WARM (29-31 CELSIUS) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST). TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD, STY 20W IS BEING STEERED BY A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR) TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO SIGNIFICANT CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY FROM
THE LAST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STY 20W WILL CONTINUE ALONG ITS NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AS A
PASSING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTH CAUSES THE STR TO REORIENT.
THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT IS EXPECTED TO PERSIST WITH LOW VWS, WARM
SST, AND STRONG UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST
REMAINS MORE AGGRESSIVE THAN MULTI-MODEL INTENSITY GUIDANCE DUE TO
THE POSSIBILITY OF A BRIEF PERIOD OF ENHANCED POLEWARD OUTFLOW AS A
RESULT OF INTERACTION WITH THE PASSING TROUGH. HOWEVER, AS THE
OUTFLOW BEGINS TO BE SHEARED BY THE PASSING TROUGH, GRADUAL WEAKENING
IS EXPECTED. THROUGH TAU 36, NUMERICAL MODELS REMAIN IN GOOD
AGREEMENT. GFS AND THE GFS ENSEMBLE REMAIN THE EASTERNMOST OUTLIERS
WITH NAVGEM AND AFUM AS THE WESTERNMOST OUTLIERS. AT TAU 72, THERE IS
190 NM OF CROSS-TRACK AND 200 NM OF ALONG-TRACK SPREAD AS THE MODEL
SOLUTIONS DIFFER IN TIMING OF RECURVATURE. PLACED NEAR THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS, THERE IS GOOD CONFIDENCE IN THE OFFICIAL JTWC
FORECAST IN THIS PORTION OF THE TRACK.
C. IN THE EXTENDED FORECAST PERIOD, STY 20W WILL BEGIN TO RECURVE
AS A SHORTWAVE TROUGH PASSES OVER JAPAN, WEAKENING THE STR. AS VWS
INCREASES AND SST COOL AFTER TAU 72, THE SYSTEM WILL CONTINUE TO
SLOWLY WEAKEN AS IT APPROACHES HONSHU. AS STY 20W TRACKS OVER LAND,
FRICTIONAL TERRAIN EFFECTS WILL ALSO BEGIN TO ERODE THE SYSTEM. STY
20W WILL BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE TROUGH AROUND TAU 96,
ACCELERATING NORTHEASTWARD AS EXTRATROPICAL TRANSITION OCCURS. BY TAU
120, THE SYSTEM WILL BE FULLY EXTRATROPICAL AND EMBEDDED IN THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES. NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN FAIR CROSS-TRACK
AGREEMENT AFTER RECURVATURE OF STY 20W. HOWEVER, AS THE SYSTEM
ACCELERATES, ALONG-TRACK SPREAD GREATLY INCREASES THROUGH TAU 120.
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS;
BASED ON THE VARIATION IN MODEL TIMING OF THE RECURVE AND ALONG-TRACK
SPEEDS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.//
NNNN

[Highteeld]

SUPER TYPHOON 20W
Wednesday 09oct19 Time: 0033 UTC
Latitude: 19.85 Longitude: 140.25
Storm position corresponds to AMSU-A FOV 9 [1<--->30]
-----------------------------------------------------------------
| Estimated MSLP: 892 hPa
| Estimated Maximum Sustained Wind: 161 kts
| Estimate Confidence: Good ( +/- 10mb +/- 12kts )
-----------------------------------------------------------------
Storm is sub-sampled: Bias correction applied is -8.1 hPa
Channel 8 (~150 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 6.68
Channel 7 (~250 hPa) Tb Anomaly: 6.61
RMW: 23 km
RMW Source is: MW
Environmental Pressure: 1001
Satellite: NOAA-90
ATCF data for Month: 10 Day: 09 Time (UTC): 0000

RMW likely too small.

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 10090033
SATCON: MSLP = 899 hPa MSW = 154 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 149.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 136 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 230 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -2.6 knots Source: IR

Member Estimates

ADT: 910 hPa 135 knots Scene: CDO Date: OCT090310
CIMSS AMSU: 892 hPa 161 knots Bias Corr: 0 (MW) Date: 10090033
ATMS: 927.8 hPa 124.5 knots Date: 10080414
SSMIS: 893.0 hPa 155.0 knots Date: 10082139
CIRA ATMS: 939 hPa 111 knots Date: 10071616

[euro6208]

At least 150 knots if they decide to ignore dvorak. Dvorak does poor with systems like this.

[euro6208]

SATCON continues to climb. Up to 157 knots.

[Highteeld]

20W HAGIBIS 191009 0600 20.7N 139.9E WPAC 140 909

[NotoSans]

 https://twitter.com/philipslau681/status/1181844880990949377

[doomhaMwx]

[Hayabusa]

[Hayabusa]

It wants to challenge Ida's 949 mb landfall pressure record