ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

And we thought Irma was crazy, what a time to be living in

[ricka47]

The latest HWRF shows Dorian 's eyewall.roughly abou 25 miles.inland , moving up along the I-95 corrodor to a position.just SW of Savannah by.12Z Thursday morming. Jax being hammered.on the souyhrtn edge of thee inner core.

This woulld be absolutely catasttophic fot NE Florida and Southeast GA if this.pans out. An extremely slow moving cyvlone. Rainfall rates are just going to be thtough the roof with this cyclone's slow movement.

Driving me nuts up here on AI. My barometer has been rapidly rising (.03 in 2 hrs) which to me indicates enforced ridging. Storm still on a western course, no reason it would turn into a rising pressure environment this soon. I noticed that HWRF path a bit ago too. Only decent info in that forecast is the winds were sub 105KT here which would seem logical given the water temps off the west of the gulf stream... but still, a potential disaster for here for sure along with everything south to Ormand. I don't understand the NHC reluctance to issue stronger alerts. What you see is what you are going to get and what I see here is a disaster, mortally and financially.

Of course the NHC gets paid to be right, I just do informed guesses.

Same here - same island - same anxiety. We're ready to leave Tuesday AM if need be. I'm also praying that the NHC has it right!

[Highteeld]

919 to 920 mb likely after dropsonde in the eye

[pcolaman]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

[ColdMiser123]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168090883889278976

[GCANE]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

[Jay Fitmob]

Jim Edds was able to post a few minutes of video:
https://www.pscp.tv/w/1OwGWdlBbYjJQ

Love that we have the ability to send videos like this!

[SunnyThoughts]

We could being near recird barometi pressure reafings with Forian attsined.

He gas not e en reavhed the Gulf Stream Current yet. Perfect vonditions in ace, virtually no eind shear a d he will reach the Gulf Steam tomorrow. Thebis nothing to stop this thing ftom strengthening.
Dorian just may reach 200 mph SUSTAINED wind.

I can't even wrap my head around what that would look like, or feel like. Nor do I want to.

[Highteeld]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

~11 mph

[underthwx]

Mother Nature at its worst, no boundaries

[pcolaman]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

~11 mph

so picking up speed?

[supercane4867]

I think we might get some 200kt gusts aloft on dropsonde reading soon

[xironman]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

I come up with close to 12mph

[tropicwatch]

People are not going to be happy if the NHC shifts the track westward at 11am.

[crownweather]

 https://twitter.com/crownweather/status/1168158844574457857

[CronkPSU]

People are not going to be happy if the NHC shifts the track westward at 11am.

well they got over it with Charley, if it is what it is happening, they HAVE to move the cone no matter how bad it looks, could save thousands of lives

[supercane4867]

Satellite presentation keeps getting better and better

[SootyTern]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

So these must not be the steering currents most influencing Dorian? Otherwise he looks like he has gotten under the ridge to the west and would start taking a dreaded SW track.

[underthwx]

Where, and how, do the residents of the Bahamas in the path of Dorian go to protect themselves?

[Aric Dunn]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.