ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[xironman]

I have it going in Freeport around midnight. It'll be scary in the dark.

[EquusStorm]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

[CFLHurricane]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

~11 mph

Yeah, Dorian will turn about as nimble as an aircraft carrier.

[NDG]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

[hipshot]

well now 7 hours of sleep and still chugging west.. I suppose im not surprised..

It isn’t suppose to slow down until tomorrow morning I believe.

Most models show a dramatic slow down pretty much now...

Winds upto 175mph now I see...

Well it better start slowing soon because it is still moving about 8knts and pretty much due west.

[CronkPSU]

Where, and how, do the residents of the Bahamas in the path of Dorian go to protect themselves?

north and west....Polk County and Gulf Coast

[1900hurricane]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

[KWT]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

https://i.imgur.com/6SZtLQy.gif

As many of us expected, the models once again have underdone the ridging. ECM and ICON done a good job this far with continued westerly motion.

I think it's going to be in Freeport region sooner than expected.

[GCANE]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

Steering is going more SW on every update.
Too close to FL now not to make a landfall IMHO.

[supercane4867]

[Aric Dunn]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

https://i.imgur.com/6SZtLQy.gif

yeah that does not include what G4 found.. 592 ridging NW of DOrian as well east of JAX and Saint Augustine.

looks like a whole lof of ridge pumping.

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168090883889278976

Amazingly enough, this could be the story that isn't heeded until it's too late.

[KC7NEC]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

Yes and No. The Media was touting it all day yesterday that the storm was going to turn away from Florida. I read multiple reports of people taking back down shutters returning supplies to stores. Yes, people should be taking precautions when in the cone and read the data for themselves.... reality is that most don't.

The scary part to me is IF they do have to shift trackback, and IF it does turn into a Landfall scenario people will now have much less time to prepare or evacuate.

[cheezyWXguy]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

Was wondering that when it was being said that the SFMR readings were comparable to those of Irma that justified her intensity at 180mph. But then again, she was very near land as well when those readings were taken.

[norva13x]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1168090883889278976

Amazingly enough, this could be the story that isn't heeded until it's too late.

Starting to feel pretty damn worried here in Orlando

[johngaltfla]

People are not going to be happy if the NHC shifts the track westward at 11am.

"People" will panic. So I'm sitting tight until the 1100 update.

[supercane4867]

How deep is the water where the crazy SFMR values are being recorded?

Actually the waters east of Great Abaco is not all that shallow. I believe they are >1000ft deep

[GCANE]

The evacs will be insane.

[HurricaneBelle]

Where, and how, do the residents of the Bahamas in the path of Dorian go to protect themselves?

north and west....Polk County and Gulf Coast

not like they can hop in a car and drive there

[Hayabusa]

The center of Hurricane Dorian, at 01/1200 UTC, is near 26.5N
76.5W. This position is about 35 nm/ to the east of Great Abaco
Island in the Bahamas, and about 225 nm to the east of West Palm
Beach in Florida. Dorian is moving W, or 275 degrees, 8 knots.
The maximum sustained wind speeds are 160 knots with gusts to 170
knots. Dorian is a Category 5 hurricane.

160 knots sustained?

https://tgftp.nws.noaa.gov/data/hurrica ... ussion.txt