ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[supercane4867]

Up to 155kt on the best track now. I think it will be upgraded to 160kts on the next center pass from recon

[johngaltfla]

Here's the mid level soundings from this morning, that 591+ dm ridge is still still hanging strong to the north of Dorian, in fact heights if Charleston have not fallen yet, still at 592 dm.

https://i.imgur.com/6SZtLQy.gif

yeah that does not include what G4 found.. 592 ridging NW of DOrian as well east of JAX and Saint Augustine.

looks like a whole lof of ridge pumping.

Yeah, amazing how so many models have missed this, but that's possibly partly due to the lack of data going in during those 36hrs where we had no sampling.

Given the ridging and the fact it's going to getting hotter soon inland over the us may keep it trucking west enough to bring the worst conditions close to the east coast if not over.

I'm not shocked. The biases of the models are being displayed and if they blow this forecast there will be hell to pay. We will all know in 48 hours however and that is when it gets interesting. I think the ICON in the 72 hour windows, however has been very, very good.

[hipshot]

Use the data from the air force plane I have it moving 16 miles in an hour and 20 minutes.

so that converts to what ? thank you

Pretty close to 12 mph.

[tigerz3030]

My concern from recent history is these things tend to go more west when this strong. Irma was due to hit east coast FL and wound up on west coast of FL. Michael last year was supposed to track more east over south central Ga and wound up over SW GA. Differences of ~90-100 miles. If Dorian does this then the peninsula of FL is in danger!

[StormingB81]

I live in Brevard County about 9 miles from the coast just south of Cocoa Beach. As prepared as we can be! Just wonder what we will see in a couple of days....

[AlabamaDave]

Forgive my ignorance, but is it possible that models don't perform quite as well with very intense storms, because they don't have nearly as much "experience" with them to model from? I've always wondered about this same thing with southern snowstorms versus northern ones. Seems like accumulation/intensity predictions for southern winter storms are not as good as for places to the north. And I've always wondered if that's because of much more limited data from the past for models to ingest into their algorithms.

[CronkPSU]

Forgive my ignorance, but is it possible that models don't perform quite as well with very intense storms, because they don't have nearly as much "experience" with them to model from? I've always wondered about this same thing with southern snowstorms versus northern ones. Seems like accumulation/intensity predictions for southern winter storms are not as good as for places to the north. And I've always wondered if that's because of much more limited data from the past for models to ingest into their algorithms.

I think there is something to that...kind of goes along with the so strong "it creates its own environment" theory

[ObsessedMiami]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

Here in Dade, we’ve been out since yesterday. Everyone has stopped preparations. No lines for gas or at Publix yesterday. Everyone enjoying their weekend because it’s all clear. Local news even saying if your shutters aren’t up, don’t worry. We, as storm enthusiasts, know to not pay attention to the cone directly and always watch the storm until it passes us. Most lay people don’t. They go by what they’re being told, and right now they’re told we’re in the clear. There isn’t even a TS watch for Miami Dade at the moment. Schools aren’t closed Tuesday.

to
I would have to think that the TS Warning will be extended south to Homestead today, especially if the storm continues west. That would trigger many of the closings for Tuesday

[ThetaE]

Dorian has developed noticeably more banding this morning, on both satellite and radar imagery. It's an indication that the environment is incredibly favorable (hence the strengthening), but it also means that Dorian's stretch of no ERCs may be ending in the next 12-24 hours....

[supercane4867]

Still heading west at a decent pace

[johngaltfla]

north and west....Polk County and Gulf Coast

not like they can hop in a car and drive there

geez my bad...I thought you meant Florida's east coast...sorry!!!

That's okay, if I were on the east coast I would NOT head to Polk County or the Gulf Coast. There is no definitive idea where this storm will go or turn over the Peninsula if it makes landfall. Tallahassee and NW Florida might be a good bet, Dothan, AL, etc. better.

[nativefloridian]

To be fair nearly half the Florida peninsula is still in the cone as it is, if people ignore everything but the center-line track that's kind of on them

Here in Dade, we’ve been out since yesterday. Everyone has stopped preparations. No lines for gas or at Publix yesterday. Everyone enjoying their weekend because it’s all clear. Local news even saying if your shutters aren’t up, don’t worry. We, as storm enthusiasts, know to not pay attention to the cone directly and always watch the storm until it passes us. Most lay people don’t. They go by what they’re being told, and right now they’re told we’re in the clear. There isn’t even a TS watch for Miami Dade at the moment. Schools aren’t closed Tuesday.

That might change after the 11am update

IMO it should change. Better to err on the side of caution before it's too late.

[KC7NEC]

My concern from recent history is these things tend to go more west when this strong. Irma was due to hit east coast FL and wound up on west coast of FL. Michael last year was supposed to track more east over south central Ga and wound up over SW GA. Differences of ~90-100 miles. If Dorian does this then the peninsula of FL is in danger!

This ^^ I feel like almost every time after we have a Cat 5 Storm there ends up being this same discussion but when it comes to doing the forecasting it's disregarded for the models.

[mrbagyo]

I checked the ADT 9.0 just to entertain myself.
Meh. The VMax output is just horrendous. ADT's algorithm needs an overhaul.

[Aric Dunn]

Pretty much the exact same postion of the ridging over the eastern US and the stalled trough over illinois.. everything is hold position except dorian that it..

[AtlanticWind]

My concern from recent history is these things tend to go more west when this strong. Irma was due to hit east coast FL and wound up on west coast of FL. Michael last year was supposed to track more east over south central Ga and wound up over SW GA. Differences of ~90-100 miles. If Dorian does this then the peninsula of FL is in danger!

This ^^ I feel like almost every time after we have a Cat 5 Storm there ends up being this same discussion but when it comes to doing the forecasting it's disregarded for the models.

I have always noticed the NHC forecast for powerful storms to be better than weaker storms
Hope that continues

[JaxBeachFL]

Just took a tour of Jax Beach & Neptune Beach (Jacksonville’s barrier island) in the golf cart. During Matthew & Irma I’d estimate we had a 60-70% boardup rate. Today I saw less than 5 residences boarded up & only a handful of businesses. Furthermore I didn’t see anyone dragging shutters out or stowing away lawn furniture. There is little to no prep occurring in this area.

The eastern shifts yesterday caused most beaches residents to not take this storm seriously. Just a normal Sunday here with people heading off to church, yoga, and breakfast.

[CrazyC83]

I didn't expect to wake up to a monster like this. The worst part is land is in the way.

[eastcoastFL]

Dorian has developed noticeably more banding this morning, on both satellite and radar imagery. It's an indication that the environment is incredibly favorable (hence the strengthening), but it also means that Dorian's stretch of no ERCs may be ending in the next 12-24 hours....

If Dorian goes through and ERC it may weaken it but on the downside it would expand its wind fields and size bringing more of Florida under TS or hurricane force winds...

[tolakram]

Miami long range