ATL: DORIAN - Models

[d3v123]

So confused. Some people saying weaker trough, some people saying big trough. Some saying east shift, some saying west. Lol

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro is west not east.

[b0tzy29]

12Z Euro - 100% shifted West..wozers..

[KC7NEC]

Is this going to come down to global modeling versus tropical modeling? I assume tropical has higher resolution?

This pdf has some interesting tidbits about the models; when they are good, and when they are not. SO bassed on it here is some related items to your question:

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/outreach/prese ... asting.pdf

Global Models
Good:
• Developed for general
weather forecasting
• Handle large-scale pattern
and steering flow well
Bad:
• Can’t see details of TC inner
core
• Sometimes struggle with
storm structure and intensity,
which can affect track
forecasts

Regional Hurricane Models
Good
• Higher resolution means they
can potentially do a better job
of handling interactions
between TC and environment
Bad:
• Limited coverage means
features far away from TC
may not be handled as well,
which can degrade longerrange forecasts

[MrJames]

West but offshore heading NNW

[tolakram]

[MrJames]

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Afternoon everyone,

I have not posted in a few days mostly watching, But foer the sake of accuracy can we please have the ones on this board that knw how to read the models , post. As one poster said he can't figure out waht is what it's east it's west. At this time we need to knw not be gues thing thank u.

[chris_fit]

Very similar to 00Z

[shah83]

Looking at the synoptics, the difference between the EC and CMC are pretty minimal. It's not going to take much for further west runs in the future. GFS is different in that it has the trough directly north and pulling east, where the other two has the trough to the east and a bit less influence. CMC has more ridging than EC.

[otowntiger]

Very similar to 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/z4jjapa.png

Someone just said west by 50 miles. This plot shows no change.

[Vdogg]

Models have actually been fairly consistent the past 24 hrs. Track corrections seem to be less in magnitude, they may finally be getting a handle on this storm. We still have another day or two before it HAS to turn north according to the NHC, so I wouldn't get hung up on the continued west movement just yet.

[tolakram]

Afternoon everyone,

I have not posted in a few days mostly watching, But foer the sake of accuracy can we please have the ones on this board that knw how to read the models , post. As one poster said he can't figure out waht is what it's east it's west. At this time we need to knw not be gues thing thank u.

No, this is a discussion forum and this thread is for people to discuss models. If you need accurate information you go to the NHC and local authorities, not here. All we ask here is people stay on topic. Under no circumstances should anyone base a decision on a model run.

[chris_fit]

Very similar to 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/z4jjapa.png

Someone just said west by 50 miles. This plot shows no change.

I dont see anything of the sort

[typhoonty]

Very similar to 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/z4jjapa.png

Someone just said west by 50 miles. This plot shows no change.

That is the 12Z, which is why it is no change

[Blown Away]

12z looks E of 06z...

[Ian2401]

12z UKMET ensembles??

[tolakram]

[otowntiger]

Models have actually been fairly consistent the past 24 hrs. Track corrections seem to be less in magnitude, they may finally be getting a handle on this storm. We still have another day or two before it HAS to turn north according to the NHC, so I wouldn't get hung up on the continued west movement just yet.

Agreed. I think wide swings either direction are finished. Of course relatively small adjustments now could still make pretty big differences to impacts on the coast and down the line. But I agree- the models seem to have a latched on to a fairly tight line.

[MrJames]

TT shows the last 12z run (yesterday) instead of the last run (00Z) for the trend. It is 50 miles west of the last 12z. My error. Also, looking at the 6z Euro run. This may be east of it.