ATL: DORIAN - Models

[drezee]

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

[otowntiger]

Very similar to 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/z4jjapa.png

Someone just said west by 50 miles. This plot shows no change.

That is the 12Z, which is why it is no change

i understand- isn’t 12z the one that just ran, and the one in that graphic? If so it is no different than the previous models and we have at least 2 people say it has shifted west and one claiming by 50 miles. It’s easy to get confused.

[TheDreamTraveler]

Euro looks close to a north carolina landfall

[AutoPenalti]

Aric, what’s your thought on the NE initialized run

[tolakram]

[Blown Away]

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

Why would you ignore 6z/18z?

[Hurricane_Apu]

The biggest problem I see is that the actual storm is already sitting between the 12 and 24 hour points on that Euro run.

[storm4u]

Runs on mostly 0z and 12z data

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

Why would you ignore 6z/18z?

[TheDreamTraveler]

While the decrease in the chance of a florida landfall is occurring, I think there is an increase chance for a Northern Carolina hit occurring. So I'm not sure why the NHC isn't shifting the tracking even further west in the North Carolina area, since many reputable models are showing a brief landfall in NC. I just don't get it. Even the latest EURO model shows that.....

A possible NC landfall is still a good ways away. So things can still change drastically. Especially with the ton of uncertainty before the turn away from florida still not being known correctly.

[sponger]

The good thing is the Euro confirms the West movement we are seeing, through tomorrow and still keeps it off the coast. The bad thing is the storm is already West of the Initial by at least 30 miles. Is this always the case with the Euro? I never noticed in all my years of model watching.

[RL3AO]

Runs on mostly 0z and 12z data

I would ignore the 6z and 18z runs. Compare to 12z and 0z

Why would you ignore 6z/18z?

This is an old school myth. Almost all the data for models come from satellites. Maybe the 0/12z thing was true in the 80s, but it isn't anymore.

[Stangfriik]

The good thing is the Euro confirms the West movement we are seeing, through tomorrow and still keeps it off the coast. The bad thing is the storm is already West of the Initial by at least 30 miles. Is this always the case with the Euro? I never noticed in all my years of model watching.

That's an interesting point. If it initialized 30 miles east, does that necessarily mean that the track could be 30 mile more west?

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Florida will still get low grade hurricane force winds on its east coast


We are pretty sure it stays off our coast but we wont celebrate till it lifts north

Everything righr now is guess work till it stalls (any minute now) and heads north. Any dips wsw would be cause for major alarm

[KC7NEC]

Florida will still get low grade hurricane force winds on its east coast


We are pretty sure it stays off our coast but we wont celebrate till it lifts north

Everything righr now is guess work till it stalls (any minute now) and heads north. Any dips wsw would be cause for major alarm

Not just that but Hurricane/TS winds ALONG the coast instead of a narrow area at landfall.....Riding the coastline is actually a worse case than landfall

[NFLnut]

Very similar to 00Z

https://i.imgur.com/z4jjapa.png

Someone just said west by 50 miles. This plot shows no change.

I dont see anything of the sort

I also don't see much of a move in the 12z EURO. IF at all, maybe 5-10 miles west but ultimately unchanged. But I don't see anything close to 50 nor even 25. Still, this close to the coast, 5-10 miles is even too close for comfort.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Florida will still get low grade hurricane force winds on its east coast


We are pretty sure it stays off our coast but we wont celebrate till it lifts north

Everything righr now is guess work till it stalls (any minute now) and heads north. Any dips wsw would be cause for major alarm

Not just that but Hurricane/TS winds ALONG the coast instead of a narrow area at landfall.....Riding the coastline is actually a worse case than landfall

Im still watching for any WSW dip. If that happens, panic

The only models and ensembles show that movement end up hitting florida

This hurricane is painful to track.

[northjaxpro]

Florida will still get low grade hurricane force winds on its east coast


We are pretty sure it stays off our coast but we wont celebrate till it lifts north

Everything righr now is guess work till it stalls (any minute now) and heads north. Any dips wsw would be cause for major alarm

Not just that but Hurricane/TS winds ALONG the coast instead of a narrow area at landfall.....Riding the coastline is actually a worse case than landfall

Especially when you factor in Storm Surge potential

[TheDreamTraveler]

Florida will still get low grade hurricane force winds on its east coast


We are pretty sure it stays off our coast but we wont celebrate till it lifts north

Everything righr now is guess work till it stalls (any minute now) and heads north. Any dips wsw would be cause for major alarm

Not just that but Hurricane/TS winds ALONG the coast instead of a narrow area at landfall.....Riding the coastline is actually a worse case than landfall

It would keep its intensity and wouldn't weaken as much because the entire center wouldn't be over land either...so yeah definitely would be worse in some ways. That's what people were worried with about Matthew. He still did a lot of damage but not as much as everyone feared.

[RL3AO]

The good thing is the Euro confirms the West movement we are seeing, through tomorrow and still keeps it off the coast. The bad thing is the storm is already West of the Initial by at least 30 miles. Is this always the case with the Euro? I never noticed in all my years of model watching.

The model initialized over six hours ago. It was exactly where the NHC had it at 8am eastern.

[hohnywx]

Looking at the 18Z position on the main 12Z dynamic model runs, the actual position (we're almost at 18Z now) is pretty much dead-on it appears to me. Any other opinions?

Well, that's what I thought until I just saw the 12Z Euro's 18Z position, which is about 30 miles too far NNE. The Euro has it clearly north of that Bahaman island whereas it is really on the northern edge.

This was the point that was made about the Euro being 30 miles too far north. Is this valid? On my phone and can’t check