ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Ritzcraker]

May be just a wobble, but last few frames on slider seems a tiny north trend if you look at a straight line since sun rise

Not seeing that... actually looks like more of a south wobble to me

[Chris_in_Tampa]

Eye on Miami long range radar :

With National Hurricane Center track on it:
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/cur ... scale-loop

GIF:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar_lite.ph ... Z&loop=yes

Flash:
https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid ... 11&loop=no

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/fl/key-west/amx

https://www.wunderground.com/wundermap? ... rm-cells=0

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/PBCountySheriff/status/1168157957894418433

[johngaltfla]

Stronger ridging to the NW.
FL is sitting in a CAPE trough.
UL High over FL is not going away today.

https://i.imgur.com/6oL17BC.png

https://i.imgur.com/jYPn5oU.png

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I still have Dorian moving around 10 mph as well.

Which in my opinion reduces the odds of the "stall" the models were calling for.

[drewschmaltz]

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I still have Dorian moving around 10 mph as well.

yeah it is 4 hours ahead of the 11pm advisory position last night.

Its not just the downstream implications that concern me. It's that the forecast is off. Its obviously not dialed in.

[johngaltfla]

https://twitter.com/PBCountySheriff/status/1168157957894418433

Smart, smart move.

[supercane4867]

Center pass from NOAA plane coming up in a few minutes. Just in time for 11AM advisory

[DelrayDude]

May be just a wobble, but last few frames on slider seems a tiny north trend if you look at a straight line since sun rise

Not seeing that... actually looks like more of a south wobble to me

I was going to say the same thing! I’m not sure if my eyes are playing with me but it appears to almost moving wsw by a hair. Could just be a wobble.

[chris_fit]

Posted this in the Models thread but wanted to post this here since I see some Pro-Mets commenting here...

Maybe a Pro can chime in here....
I don't think ANY model predicted Dorian to get this strong at this location - What bearing does that have on track? Any merit to this "pumping the ridge" theory?

[skillz305]

May be just a wobble, but last few frames on slider seems a tiny north trend if you look at a straight line since sun rise

definitely a wobble, headed due west right now

[1900hurricane]

Eye is really torching now on multiple bands. I'm expecting another 3-4 mb pressure drop this pass.

[supercane4867]

Extrap 913mb

[craptacular]

Sure looks like it is on WV, any idea if Gonzo is flying around today?

Gonzo finished a mission this morning, and landed to New Orleans. Plan of the Day shows next flight takes off overnight for similar early morning mission.

[chris_fit]

913mb

[tropicwatch]

913mb wow!

[deltadog03]

yeah and G4 data confirms the 592/591 ridge still in place as well as the 250mb steering.

wsw motion could happen at any time. not for sure but could.

I still have Dorian moving around 10 mph as well.

yeah it is 4 hours ahead of the 11pm advisory position last night.

I agree. it will be telling to see how long it can keep this speed and movement up. A 3-6 hour delay in slowing this down could have some bigger issues down stream as well.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

913mb!!

[jlauderdal]

Here is Irma and what it did with “the cone”

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2017/I ... e_and_wind

sad to see how little understating there was in regards to the track and nhc is usually very good but not always

[cjrciadt]

Extrap 913mb

Noooo, it's tooo much, just insanity!!!

[johngaltfla]

geez my bad...I thought you meant Florida's east coast...sorry!!!

That's okay, if I were on the east coast I would NOT head to Polk County or the Gulf Coast. There is no definitive idea where this storm will go or turn over the Peninsula if it makes landfall. Tallahassee and NW Florida might be a good bet, Dothan, AL, etc. better.

You had to bring Dothan into it lol. But, people here started prepping last week as a “just in case”. Last Wednesday they had almost wiped out all the generators from Sam’s Club.

I always make a reservation some of your local hotels in July and Early August for various weeks in August, September, and October just in case we need to bug out.