ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Cuda]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

[shah83]

00z ICON is materially west and south at hr36.

[CronkPSU]

18Z EURO

"The Turn" happens exactly at 45 hours, around 11am EST on Tuesday.... Put that in your calendars. Turn occurs on the north-west end of Grand Bahama Island

which is interesting since the NHC has it Monday night...

[p1nheadlarry]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

He’s still a student actually but all else aside he never said that’s what would happen, but that HWRF is coupled with ocean and that is what the HWRF sees.

[caneseddy]

ICON takes a slight WSW dip and stalls maybe 50 miles off Palm Beach and then heads NNW along the coast owhat looks like landfall in Melbourne/Space Coast

[Cuda]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

He’s still a student actually but all else aside he never said that’s what would happen, but that HWRF is coupled with ocean and that is what the HWRF sees.

Didn't realize he was a student. He's so knowledgeable it seems! Thanks for the correction.

[Blinhart]

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

He’s still a student actually but all else aside he never said that’s what would happen, but that HWRF is coupled with ocean and that is what the HWRF sees.

Didn't realize he was a student. He's so knowledgeable it seems! Thanks for the correction.

If I remember correctly he actually used to be a regular contributor here before he went to college.

[MrJames]

GFS is running

[AutoPenalti]

GFS initialized north of Dorian...

[Tailspin]

The mean of where the vortex may be as per 18z ens eps.


https://imgur.com/E2Zg1Cn

[StormTracker]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

He did actually reference that in the video...ST

[Cuda]

Levi's not considering that the Gulf Stream has a constant flow of warm water replacing what has been upwelled thusly cancelling out his expected upwelling effect...

You don't think that a pro met who puts out detailed videos nightly such as his doesn't realize the gulf stream has warm water?

I'm fairly certain he is aware of it. He just doesn't think it is going to be enough to cancel out the upwelling.

He did actually reference that in the video...ST

He absolutely did. He even drew a little oval acknowledging where the gulf stream runs.

[MrJames]

Looks about right. The eye going full pac-man on Grand Bahama.

[AutoPenalti]

Looks about right. The eye going full pac-man on Grand Bahama.

https://i.imgur.com/EH55zrj.png

You’re looking at analysis.

[NDG]

Can we really trust the GFS when it keeps being right biased on the forecast track in the short term?

[AxaltaRacing24]

Can we really trust the GFS when it keeps being right biased on the forecast track in the short term?

I personally have never cheered harder for this model to be correct in my life.

[supercane4867]

looks slower and closer to the coast

[shah83]

00z Icon has severe impacts on the Carolinas for, I think, the first time.

[sma10]

Hmmm, it looks to me like the GFS, very short term, places Dorian north of Grand Bahama, approx 27n 78.5w tomorrow morning at 8am. That looks like a hard sell atm

[Raebie]

looks slower and closer to the coast

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/9be3f4ac0abdc9d4cb6c5e59b127e9e824d1a356490236a42baa51637d1f13bd.gif

It looks like you're comparing hour 48 to 54.