ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

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cheezyWXguy
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5921 Postby cheezyWXguy » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:02 am

Bostonriff wrote:
cheezyWXguy wrote:
Bostonriff wrote:It's a steady-state top-ended hurricane with an annular appearance in an otherwise high pressure environment preventing it from growing larger in size.
Not annular
[x] symmetrical appearance
[x] relative absence of convection occurring outside the CDO
[x] diurnal pulsation of the cirrus cloud canopy associated with outflow is subdued
[x] less prone to weakening as a result of negative environmental factors (such as that undercutting light westerly shear at ~250mb last night).
[x] maintain peak intensities for extended periods of time
[?] average or larger-than-average eye

...Dorian is a really small hurricane, and its eye might be considered average or larger for a storm of that diameter.

The (edit: second*) box certainly is not checked, as there is still very prominent banding in all quadrants. The remainder are not exclusive to annular hurricanes by any means, but Dorian's consistent eyewall structure (despite being smaller than average, to average) is probably the best case for your argument. Annular hurricanes come close to looking like a donut on IR, like Isabel did for a portion of its time as a cat5.
Last edited by cheezyWXguy on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:03 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5922 Postby norva13x » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:02 am

Sanibel wrote:Wiping the small town of Elbow Cay off the map right now...You're looking at one of the worst hurricanes to ever hit the Bahamas...It spent all night and morning intensifying before landfall to strong category 5...The Bahamas are getting their Labor Day storm...

This is one of the strongest hurricanes to ever threaten Florida...It is expected to turn north before impacting Florida directly...


Hopefully that turn will happen before
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5923 Postby Bostonriff » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:05 am

Tops are warming a tad as the island grind commences, so I'd say we've seen the peak.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5924 Postby hohnywx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:05 am

Dr. Greg Postal on TWC showing the reasonable worse case scenario...hurricane force winds along the FL East Coast north of West Palm Beach. The current forecast track would leave the hurricane force winds 20 miles offshore. However, and he stressed, the average track error by the NHC at 48 hours is 70 miles.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5925 Postby Nasdaq » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:06 am

Josh Morgerman - central abaco primary school  https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1168095182279139328




Jim Edds - Hope Town Inn and Marina  https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1168123731530670080




Jim was trying to get across the bay to marsh harbor, but stated he was unable to do so.
Last edited by Nasdaq on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:19 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5926 Postby supercane4867 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:07 am

Bostonriff wrote:Tops are warming a tad as the island grind commences, so I'd say we've seen the peak.

The warming is most likely due to peak daytime sun light.
Last edited by supercane4867 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:07 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5927 Postby norva13x » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:07 am

hohnywx wrote:Dr. Greg Postal on TWC showing the reasonable worse case scenario...hurricane force winds along the FL East Coast north of West Palm Beach. The current forecast track would leave the hurricane force winds 20 miles offshore. However, and he stressed, the average track error by the NHC at 48 hours is 70 miles.


I'd say the reasonable worst case is the storm tracking into Florida interior, or along the coast with several eyewall passes. I am not predicting that but it cannot be off the table.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5928 Postby La Sirena » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:07 am

Sanibel wrote:Wiping the small town of Elbow Cay off the map right now...You're looking at one of the worst hurricanes to ever hit the Bahamas...It spent all night and morning intensifying before landfall to strong category 5...The Bahamas are getting their Labor Day storm...

This is one of the strongest hurricanes to ever threaten Florida...It is expected to turn north before impacting Florida directly...

I agree that what is happening to the Bahamas is sad and terrifying.

I don’t agree with your last comment. It makes it seem as if it’s all clear. Direct or indirect impact......Dorian has really done nothing that is expected so far.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5929 Postby Highteeld » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:09 am

Any obs?
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5930 Postby underthwx » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:09 am

I'm sure there is live constant news coverage of Dorian in Florida, and elsewhere, is there now a heightened sense of alertness?...there must be, with Dorian posing a real threat for Florida...can one of you provide a good link for live local coverage?...Thankyou
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5931 Postby tropicwatch » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:10 am

Don't know if AF will get a reading from the center this time. Eye might be over Marsh Harbor.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5932 Postby d3v123 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:10 am

If anyone uses snapchat you can zoom out into map mode and watch what people are posting around the world. People posted themselves out driving around in the storm (!) and some people walking the streets trying to find shelter as soon as 40 mins ago in Marsh Harbour. Some clips of the storms surge already too. Very sad and hope people driving take shelter sooner than later.
Last edited by d3v123 on Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:11 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5933 Postby KWT » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:10 am

landfall looks very close indeed now, probably within the hour from the looks of things unless the steering currents collapse now.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5934 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:12 am

Hopefully the chasers get some amazing footage (as safely as possible of course). It's rare to be able to record cat 5 winds on land- during the daytime as well.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5935 Postby Kazmit » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:13 am

d3v123 wrote:If anyone uses snapchat you can zoom out into map mode and watch what people are posting around the world. People posted themselves out driving around in the storm (!) and some people walking the streets trying to find shelter as soon as 40 mins ago in Marsh Harbour. Some clips of the storms surge already too. Very sad and hope people driving take shelter sooner than later.

Yeah, this is a great way to view live conditions. Most webcams are either down or have low quality.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5936 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:13 am

On a lighter note, it seems Josh now has a cool material for the second season of Hurricane Man.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5937 Postby Canelaw99 » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:15 am

underthwx wrote:I'm sure there is live constant news coverage of Dorian in Florida, and elsewhere, is there now a heightened sense of alertness?...there must be, with Dorian posing a real threat for Florida...can one of you provide a good link for live local coverage?...Thankyou

Here in Dade, only WPLG has coverage. All other local stations have paid programming/infomercials on.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5938 Postby dexterlabio » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:15 am

Also, Dorian making landfall in less than an hour while at around 180mph/913mb and STILL intensifying must be a record in this part of the world, am I right?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5939 Postby Yellow Evan » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:15 am

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 155019 UTC
Lat : 26:34:47 N Lon : 76:52:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 935.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +21.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Hurricane - Discussion

#5940 Postby TheAustinMan » Sun Sep 01, 2019 11:16 am

If you look closely enough you can see Elbow Cay move into the eye of Dorian as the stationary feature on the western side of the eye.

2 MB. Source: CIMSS RealEarth
Image
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