ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Smurfwicked]

00z Euro init https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/604b465c20bab497d29a5a647a155176.jpg


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Looks like Dorian is due south of 24hr EURO forecast point by a pretty good bit if im looking at it correctly.

[caneman]

Ok ... so UKmet says Dorian will only reach 78.3 by 8am tomorrow morning. And 78.8 by 8am Tuesday morning.

Dorian better hit the thrust reversers

Just to my (admittedly) totally untrained eye on the radar, it looks like it has slowed down since a little before the 11pm.

At the 2 am advisory, it's still at 5 mph

[STRiZZY]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg


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It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

[birddogsc]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg


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It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

Radar and sat indicates slower movement in the last 30 mins or so. We'll see if that holds.

[sponger]

Close to the end of this insanity. SC and NC have a few more nervous days ahead but I always prefer being down the center 5 days out, which they are not but close. Will Euro maintain its pinnacle as king of the global models, or will we all learn something about ridge pumping? No one on this planet can answer that but there it is.

[AtlanticWind]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg


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It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

Look at the latest loop, look likes it just stalled

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168405893152722944

[STRiZZY]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg


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It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

Look at the latest loop, look likes it just stalled

Just noticed that, almost looks like it bounced back east a touch.. Like it hit a wall..

[sponger]

In 24 hours it’ll be on the western tip of Grand Bahama according to the 00z Euro. Hard to imagine a slow down that abrupt any other time but possible with the weak steering that’ll occur. https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20190902/53d8a4cd47af8de9bc0bc99ff9edc9bb.jpg


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It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

Look at the latest loop, look likes it just stalled

Appears that way but really a South wobble.

[Sanibel]

There's your stall and turn or stall and drift...

Imagine having a category 5 hurricane stall on top of your little island village and sit there and grind...

[STRiZZY]

It will have to average about 2mph to meet that point in 24hrs.

Look at the latest loop, look likes it just stalled

Appears that way but really a South wobble.

Hours long wobble? Pretty consistent movement in that direction imho. But I'm obviously no expert. Although (could just be my sleepy eyes) but it looks like it's slowing down.. need to take a break from the satellite for awhile I suppose haha.

[AtlanticWind]

This is start of the drift the Euro has been forecasting

[TheDreamTraveler]

[sponger]

Look at the latest loop, look likes it just stalled

Appears that way but really a South wobble.

Hours long wobble? Pretty consistent movement in that direction imho. But I'm obviously no expert. Although (could just be my sleepy eyes) but it looks like it's slowing down.. need to take a break from the satellite for awhile I suppose haha.

It really looks like a stall because the wobble is a small 360. Energy spent rotating instead of forward. Could be the beginning of a slow down as we saw some weird center movements on modeling many times at this point,as it predictably and hopefully stalls.

[SouthernBreeze]

wonder how far the eye is offshore there at SC/NC line?

[TheDreamTraveler]

wonder how far the eye is offshore there at SC/NC line?

The eye is right at the shore but doesn't look like a landfall. Still decent amount of wind and rain though. Hatteras looks like the entire eye would pass through it for sure.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1168411411246194688

[Hurrilurker]

The good news is once it moves out, it moves out fast. Hopefully that limits the amount of rainfall and flooding.

[MrStormX]

One thing we haven't been paying much attention to is where Dorian goes after it's brush with the Carolinas.

I note that the 0z GFS landfalls it into Maine/Atlantic Canada as a significant hurricane still. The 0z Euro pushes it out to sea, with a slight possibility of a Newfoundland encounter.

[J3r3my]

One thing we haven't been paying much attention to is where Dorian goes after it's brush with the Carolinas.

I note that the 0z GFS landfalls it into Maine/Atlantic Canada as a significant hurricane still. The 0z Euro pushes it out to sea, with a slight possibility of a Newfoundland encounter.

Hell. Dorian goes to hell.

But seriously, where do you think it will land after FL?