ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[1900hurricane]

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 01 SEP 2019 Time : 155019 UTC
Lat : 26:34:47 N Lon : 76:52:12 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.4 / 935.9mb/124.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.4 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 21 km

Center Temp : +21.5C Cloud Region Temp : -68.0C

Scene Type : EYE

Crazy eye temp.

[AutoPenalti]

Any update on forward speed? Seem to have slowed just a tiny bit.

[igoldfish]

Hey All, faithful lurker here.
I'm in Ft Myers, inside of Sanibel Island, in a flood zone. Haven't seen any mention of what to expect for the SW Fl Coast. Given current conditions, is there any chance Dorian will come across the peninsula before heading north or go out into the Gulf? My home can take a possible Cat 2. Some of the latest spaghetti models are making me nervous again.

And thank you all for your good work. It was only because of some some, last minute, courageous forecasting that many of us survived Hurricane Charley.

[supercane4867]

[CronkPSU]

I'm sure there is live constant news coverage of Dorian in Florida, and elsewhere, is there now a heightened sense of alertness?...there must be, with Dorian posing a real threat for Florida...can one of you provide a good link for live local coverage?...Thankyou

none of the channels in Orlando are doing live coverage outside their regular news shows at noon

[leggy77]

If you look closely enough you can see Elbow Cay move into the eye of Dorian as the stationary feature on the western side of the eye.

2 MB. Source: CIMSS RealEarth
https://i.imgur.com/28jgopP.gif

That puts Jim Edds in the eye right now. The hotel he is at is right there. The eye will also go over Josh as well. Hopefully we will get some good observatios here soon.

[Pebbles]

If you look closely enough you can see Elbow Cay move into the eye of Dorian as the stationary feature on the western side of the eye.

2 MB. Source: CIMSS RealEarth
https://i.imgur.com/28jgopP.gif

This ranks up there as one of the most interesting observational posts I've ever seen on these forums. It just makes me shake my head in wonder at the leaps we've made in satellite technology. Such a mix of emotions looking at that.

[alienstorm]

Making landfall

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

All of us should hope and pray that everyone in the Northern Bahamas will be okay. Given the wind speed and pressure, this is like being hit by a giant tornado plus a tsunami.

[al78]

OMG, when I said "wake me up when there is an interesting hurricane to track", I didn't mean armageddon for some hapless islands. I can't believe how much this hurricane has exploded in intensity, when this was first developing, the five day forecasts never had it above a minimal hurricane, now it is a 155 kt category 5 monster.

Good luck to those in the Bahamas currently getting hammered, and for the sake of Florida this thing had better turn soon.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=ldDa9TSDIkU

[psyclone]

Dorian looks like a tropical storm....that happens to contain a rain wrapped 50 mile wide Joplin tornado..

[KWT]

Isn't Elbowsclay where Jim is at. Hope he has a good pressure sensor, could see some outstanding pressure report as well.

Best of luck Jim, I pray for the best.

[supercane4867]

Recon eyewall penetration coming up in 10 minutes...

[weathaguyry]

If anyone uses snapchat you can zoom out into map mode and watch what people are posting around the world. People posted themselves out driving around in the storm (!) and some people walking the streets trying to find shelter as soon as 40 mins ago in Marsh Harbour. Some clips of the storms surge already too. Very sad and hope people driving take shelter sooner than later.

Yes, this is one of my favorite things to use during landfalling storms. It’s amazing to be able to see how the people are reacting to a Category 5 Hurricane about to make a direct pass over their island, the footage is terrifying

[Kazmit]

Recon eyewall penetration coming up in 10 minutes...

Timing is perfect considering it will be making landfall (and probably peaking) very soon.

[ColdFusion]

 https://twitter.com/asimancas305/status/1168197565470453764

[Syx6sic]

I am starting to keep a close eye on this now with the recurve supposed to happen as I am in virginia beach va seems we always get something when they recurve and we are over due for something bad here as most the area says so now its just wait and see time for me while I start prepping before everyone else does. stay safe out there everyone in dorians path and keep us all updated as soon as you can. and yes I am a lurker most of the time unless something is coming my way.

[Sanibel]

Hey All, faithful lurker here.
I'm in Ft Myers, inside of Sanibel Island, in a flood zone. Haven't seen any mention of what to expect for the SW Fl Coast. Given current conditions, is there any chance Dorian will come across the peninsula before heading north or go out into the Gulf? My home can take a possible Cat 2. Some of the latest spaghetti models are making me nervous again.

And thank you all for your good work. It was only because of some some, last minute, courageous forecasting that many of us survived Hurricane Charley.

That's where I am too 300 yards from the beach in an A Zone...The town announced that they were dropping any hurricane watches yesterday and did not expect it to come here...

I myself am staying because Dorian's eye is due East of us right now on the same latitude and with the National Hurricane Center saying it is almost certainly going to turn north we should be OK...

If this current cyclone tracked over Sanibel from the Keys it would be guaranteed to smash my house to splinters and send 20 feet of surge across the island...

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the National Hurricane Center and National Weather Service.

[supercane4867]

907mb 177kt SFMR

[HurricaneBelle]

I see what you are saying but it says 12hr and they do that with the next advisory only 9Z time then they go 12hrs

INIT 01/1500Z 26.5N 76.8W 155 KT 180 MPH
12H 02/0000Z 26.6N 77.7W 150 KT 175 MPH
24H 02/1200Z 26.8N 78.5W 145 KT 165 MPH
36H 03/0000Z 27.0N 79.0W 135 KT 155 MPH
48H 03/1200Z 27.4N 79.4W 120 KT 140 MPH
72H 04/1200Z 29.7N 80.2W 100 KT 115 MPH
96H 05/1200Z 32.5N 79.0W 85 KT 100 MPH
120H 06/1200Z 35.5N 74.5W 80 KT 90 MPH

18Z is 18z which is 2PM EDT, the times listed aren't relative to the time of the advisory, they're actual times.