ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Tailspin]

ens mean spread of where the vortex maybe @42hrs 00z ec.
https://imgur.com/IC8wFog

@54hrs spread
https://imgur.com/25xsEzT

[NDG]

Close up look of Euro's 0z ensembles, about a 1/3 of them bring Dorian either inland or much close to the coast than its operation run. Yet another trend to the west.
So today will be very important to see how far west Dorian moves near Grand Bahama, the more western it ends up the higher the chances it gets to the east coast of FL. IMO.

[MrJames]

6z GFS is west. Bad run for Jax.


Legacy GFS keeps it offshore a bit more.

[M3gaMatch]

GFS is much closer to the coast this run...

[NDG]

06 GFS continues trend to the west.

[Tailspin]

https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/4149 ... ntials/usa
99-100 mph gusts.

ec ens percentages
https://meteologix.com/au/forecast/4149 ... wind-gusts
Wednesday, Sep the 4th at 05:00
— Main run: 113 km/h
— Ensemble mean: 124 km/h
Maximum: 180 km/h 90% Percentile: 172 km/h
Minimum: 56 km/h 10% Percentile: 71 km/h

[ronjon]

HWRF, CMC, and GFS all weaken the storm as it slides N-NW along Florida's east coast. The storm also greatly expands in size due to the weakening which allows a push toward the east coast from the Cape northward. This is what Levi Cowan discussed last night on his blog - as the storm weakens, it will be steered more by lower to mid levels rather than mid to high levels from a very deep storm. All this is bad news for folks in Florida near the coast as high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will encompass a larger area.

[northjaxpro]

Close up look of Euro's 0z ensembles, about a 1/3 of them bring Dorian either inland or much close to the coast than its operation run. Yet another trend to the west.
So today will be very important to see how far west Dorian moves near Grand Bahama, the more western it ends up the higher the chances it gets to the east coast of FL. IMO.

https://i.imgur.com/0HH3Cbk.gif

The west(left ) bend on the 00Z EURO really concerns me!!

[KWT]

HWRF, CMC, and GFS all weaken the storm as it slides N-NW along Florida's east coast. The storm also greatly expands in size due to the weakening which allows a push toward the east coast from the Cape northward. This is what Levi Cowan discussed last night on his blog - as the storm weakens, it will be steered more by lower to mid levels rather than mid to high levels from a very deep storm. All this is bad news for folks in Florida near the coast as high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will encompass a larger area.

Yes, the GFs in particular spreads hurricane force winds pretty much the whole up the east coast through to NC, which obviously could cause a large amount of damage, even if the system isn't the cat-5 monster it is still.

[JtSmarts]

06z GFS was almost a mirror of Matthew on the SC coast, skipping along with a very brief near landfall/landfall along the extreme northern Charleston/Georgetown area.

[northjaxpro]

HWRF, CMC, and GFS all weaken the storm as it slides N-NW along Florida's east coast. The storm also greatly expands in size due to the weakening which allows a push toward the east coast from the Cape northward. This is what Levi Cowan discussed last night on his blog - as the storm weakens, it will be steered more by lower to mid levels rather than mid to high levels from a very deep storm. All this is bad news for folks in Florida near the coast as high winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will encompass a larger area.

Yes, the GFs in particular spreads hurricane force winds pretty much the whole up the east coast through to NC, which obviously could cause a large amount of damage, even if the system isn't the cat-5 monster it is still.

Excellent post. This is why we will see the hurricane force windfield effect a btoader area as Dorian moves up the coast EWRC will start this ptocess, which will be later today.

[b0tzy29]

The 06Z GFS is simply terrifying. That is really the only word that comes to mind when i look at it. I know we are still a bit of a ways out but this is getting way to close for comfort in the Long Island / Jersey Coast Area. I live on South Shore Long Island on the water and lived through Sandy. This is giving me flashbacks...

[northjaxpro]

06 GFS continues trend to the west.

https://i.imgur.com/DWyPqLN.png?1

Yep. West bend on GFS continues in short term.

[hohnywx]

The 06Z GFS is simply terrifying. That is really the only word that comes to mind when i look at it. I know we are still a bit of a ways out but this is getting way to close for comfort in the Long Island / Jersey Coast Area. I live on South Shore Long Island on the water and lived through Sandy. This is giving me flashbacks...

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZazoHHfBWOuBvf9dLh/source.gif

Even if it were to come up to our area (the GFS is the only model really showing this), it would be no Sandy.

[northjaxpro]

06Z GFS is absolutely a worst case scenario run for Jax metro. It would put the area solidly in hurricane force wind gusts for much of Wednesday into Wednesday night.

Short term, 00z EURO and this morning's 06Z GFS both in agreement of pushing Dorian much closer to the Jax Metro area. This is definitely not a good sign needless to say . Concern level quite high!!

[BobHarlem]

6Z HWRF stays offshore until about Myrtle Beach, riding the coast pretty closely though 28nm from Canaveral north. HMON is pretty similar to the HWRF as well.

[dukeblue219]

The 06Z GFS is simply terrifying. That is really the only word that comes to mind when i look at it. I know we are still a bit of a ways out but this is getting way to close for comfort in the Long Island / Jersey Coast Area. I live on South Shore Long Island on the water and lived through Sandy. This is giving me flashbacks...

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZazoHHfBWOuBvf9dLh/source.gif

Dorian may clip the Jersey coast as he's pulled out to sea but by that point I'd imagine the eye will be open to the west and most convection will be on the east. Oh I'd keep an eye on it because Dorian may well affect your weather, but the likelihood of serious damage to that region seems low.

Sandy was truly a once in a lifetime system. She (pretty much as forecast) hooked left into the region and made direct landfall as a monster storm.

[b0tzy29]

The 06Z GFS is simply terrifying. That is really the only word that comes to mind when i look at it. I know we are still a bit of a ways out but this is getting way to close for comfort in the Long Island / Jersey Coast Area. I live on South Shore Long Island on the water and lived through Sandy. This is giving me flashbacks...

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZazoHHfBWOuBvf9dLh/source.gif

Even if it were to come up to our area (the GFS is the only model really showing this), it would be no Sandy.

I am not so sure about that..if this pushes in land from there, it will be devastating.

[Emmett_Brown]

Anyone have 06Z the Euro? I think it should be rolling by now...

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/EmOmDn8
beta motion