ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

So have seen this many times. Might be a sign that the dry air wont be too much of an issue moving forward.

But often times systems will develop a large area of deep convection along the boundary with the SAL as we currently have developing to the north of 96L. This acts as a buffer/filter of sorts allowing the deep moisture from the south to be feed in and allowing a system to deepen.

Just something to watch today.

[NDG]

Like I said yesterday, give it another 48-72 hrs if not longer. Both GFS & Euro have been persistent on it.
Now there’s a possibility of it not developing at all based on the latest 06z GFS run and latest 0z Euro.

[Aric Dunn]

Like I said yesterday, give it another 48-72 hrs if not longer. Both GFS & Euro have been persistent on it.
Now there’s a possibility of it not developing at all based on the latest 06z GFS run and latest 0z Euro.

There was always a possibility of it not developing.. half of all the ensembles showed no development.. nothing much has changed.

[jconsor]

Many systems have struggled historically in the NE Caribbean or slightly north of there due to a multitude of factors - mainly TUTT, land interaction with Hispaniola/Cuba and accelerating low-level easterlies making it hard for circulation to close off. However, a decent percentage of these systems did eventually strengthen significantly once they got further north or west - in the E Gulf of Mexico, near the Bahamas, or in some cases even farther north between Bermuda and Newfoundland.

Examples of systems that struggled in the area mentioned above but eventually became hurricanes are:
Gert 2017
Hermine 2016
Isaac 2012
Maria 2011
Hanna 2008
Jeanne 2004
Dennis 1999
Iris 1995
Andrew 1992
Frederic 1979

[abajan]

Like I said yesterday, give it another 48-72 hrs if not longer. Both GFS & Euro have been persistent on it.
Now there’s a possibility of it not developing at all based on the latest 06z GFS run and latest 0z Euro.

There was always a possibility of it not developing.. half of all the ensembles showed no development.. nothing much has changed.

If it's going to develop, I wish it would hurry up. The later it takes to do so, the farther west it gets without gaining much latitude. I keep remembering how Maria waited until she was practically on the doorsteps of Dominica before deciding to undergo explosive intensification. Then again, different year (and time of year) and conditions.

[SouthDadeFish]

Many systems have struggled historically in the NE Caribbean or slightly north of there due to a multitude of factors - mainly TUTT, land interaction with Hispaniola/Cuba and accelerating low-level easterlies making it hard for circulation to close off. However, a decent percentage of these systems did eventually strengthen significantly once they got further north or west - in the E Gulf of Mexico, near the Bahamas, or in some cases even farther north between Bermuda and Newfoundland.

Examples of systems that struggled in the area mentioned above but eventually became hurricanes are:
Gert 2017
Hermine 2016
Isaac 2012
Maria 2011
Hanna 2008
Jeanne 2004
Dennis 1999
Iris 1995
Andrew 1992
Frederic 1979

I think the upcoming interaction with the upper-tropospheric trough(s) will be key. But I am biased to this point of view. Shameless plug below...

 https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1156870371037122560

[NDG]

Like I said yesterday, give it another 48-72 hrs if not longer. Both GFS & Euro have been persistent on it.
Now there’s a possibility of it not developing at all based on the latest 06z GFS run and latest 0z Euro.

There was always a possibility of it not developing.. half of all the ensembles showed no development.. nothing much has changed.

But clearly developing within 48 hrs has never been a good possibility ever since it left the coast of Africa

[abajan]

Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
800 AM EDT Thu Aug 1 2019

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

2. A broad low pressure system located about 1000 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands continues to produce a large area of
disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Only gradual development of
this system is expected for the next day or so while it moves
west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions could
become more supportive by Saturday and a tropical depression is
likely to form over the weekend, several hundred miles east of the
Lesser Antilles.

* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

[tropicwatch]

There appears to already be a TUTT over the north central Gulf of Mexico. Don't think it will hang around until 96L arrives. Pretty intense though here is the 200mb vorticity map.

[abajan]

Earlier updates stated it was moving at about 15 mph. Now it's "10 to 15 mph". Is it slowing down, or is that just due to the difference in forecaster opinions?

[N2FSU]

48hr chances upped to 20%. Clearly the NHC isn't jumping on one model run.


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[Aric Dunn]

Like I said yesterday, give it another 48-72 hrs if not longer. Both GFS & Euro have been persistent on it.
Now there’s a possibility of it not developing at all based on the latest 06z GFS run and latest 0z Euro.

There was always a possibility of it not developing.. half of all the ensembles showed no development.. nothing much has changed.

But clearly developing within 48 hrs has never been a good possibility ever since it left the coast of Africa

That was never really in question. Lol it had a brief shot as it left africa. But before the easterly shear and sal. Otherwise we knew we were going to wait.

[Aric Dunn]

48hr chances upped to 20%. Clearly the NHC isn't jumping on one model run.


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Of course they are not.. they know better.. lol

[AutoPenalti]

lol at the models taking a break and dropping development.

[TheStormExpert]

 https://twitter.com/mjventrice/status/1156875185175322624

[cycloneye]

12z Best Track:

Location: 9.5°N 38.8°W
Maximum Winds: 25 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1009 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1012 mb
Radius of Circulation: 200 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 100 NM

[NDG]

There was always a possibility of it not developing.. half of all the ensembles showed no development.. nothing much has changed.

But clearly developing within 48 hrs has never been a good possibility ever since it left the coast of Africa

That was never really in question. Lol it had a brief shop as it left africa. But before the easterly shear and sal. Otherwise we knew we were going to wait.

And you were pretty excited last evening when a couple small showers got within 100 miles from the broad COC

[SFLcane]

Heck of a spin but its been sucked dry...

[Aric Dunn]

But clearly developing within 48 hrs has never been a good possibility ever since it left the coast of Africa

That was never really in question. Lol it had a brief shop as it left africa. But before the easterly shear and sal. Otherwise we knew we were going to wait.

And you were pretty excited last evening when a couple small showers got within 100 miles from the broad COC

Lol i wouldn't say excited.. but i know sometimes thats all it takes. And to never say its dead or poof or crap you hear all the time from people.

[N2FSU]

48hr chances upped to 20%. Clearly the NHC isn't jumping on one model run.


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Of course they are not.. they know better.. lol

My point exactly!


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