ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

HMON shifted a bit west, FWIW.

[DelrayDude]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168206235201626114

That certainly is a sw wobble. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Actually I’m wrong

[ColdFusion]

 https://twitter.com/LoveDeje/status/1168205887594536960

[Do_For_Love]

Crazy to think that there was a decent chance of this storm dissipating when it was in the Caribbean. Now there's a decent chance it will be the strongest ever in the Atlantic

[jaxfladude]

First and foremost all my thoughts and prayers are with the people of the Bahamas. As to Florida and elsewhere on US East Coast may we all come out safe and sound and whatever else happens we will get through this......

[birdwomn]

One of the video feeds im watching has palm trees flying through the air.
...roots and all

Oh my goodness! Link?

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/LoveDeje/status/1168205887594536960

WOW this looks bad

[Blizzard96x]

It looks to me like Dorian may be wobbling NW, not going straight through the island.

[tolakram]

[Nederlander]

https://twitter.com/JackSillin/status/1168206235201626114

That certainly is a sw wobble. Correct me if I’m wrong.

Not seeing a SW wobble here.. looks due west

[plasticup]

Crazy to think that there was a decent chance of this storm dissipating when it was in the Caribbean. Now there's a decent chance it will be the strongest ever in the Atlantic

It is already tied for the strongest landfalling hurricane ever at 185 mph. The strongest uncontested at 193 mph if you believe the two SFMR readings from the last two recon passes. 193 would actually make it the strongest storm in the basin, and to be making landfall at the time is just unbelievable.

[CrazyC83]

This feels like a modern-day version of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. It's the only precedent I can think of right now.

[NDG]

I hope Jim Edds who went to Elbow Cay thinking that the eye was going to go north of him not thinking that it would go directly over him is OK and alive, the eye right over the Cay right now, he has not reported on twitter in over 3 hours now.

https://i.imgur.com/BgDJvZA.gif

Are my eyes playing with me or has that slowed down considerably...?

Considerably? No. By maybe a tad, perhaps, too early to tell, I will make the calculation in a little bit.

[p1nheadlarry]

Will Dorians sustained winds rise even more?...190, or above?...is it possible?

Sadly I think it is possible that will have this get up to 200 if they keep on getting SFMR readings show over 200 MPH, and also they might get obs from buoys and other land stations that will verify the SFMR's.

Is there a MPI product out there?

[WmE]

This feels like a modern-day version of the 1935 Labor Day hurricane. It's the only precedent I can think of right now.

Perhaps the 1932 Bahamas Hurricane?

[Bostonriff]

Probably a spectacular view of the approaching Mares' Tails from Palm Beach Shores.

[Highteeld]

:grrr:

Will Dorians sustained winds rise even more?...190, or above?...is it possible?

Sadly I think it is possible that will have this get up to 200 if they keep on getting SFMR readings show over 200 MPH, and also they might get obs from buoys and other land stations that will verify the SFMR's.

Is there a MPI product out there?

MPI is 901 mb last i checked

[galaxy401]

It's insane that after 9 years of seeing zero Category 5 hurricanes, we now have 4 consecutive seasons of them. It also seems that each Cat 5 is trying to one up the previous one.

[aperson]

:grrr:

Will Dorians sustained winds rise even more?...190, or above?...is it possible?

Sadly I think it is possible that will have this get up to 200 if they keep on getting SFMR readings show over 200 MPH, and also they might get obs from buoys and other land stations that will verify the SFMR's.

Is there a MPI product out there?

(ref: http://wxmaps.org/pix/hurpot)

[BlowHard]

Can a cyclone of Dorian's magnitude, be unaffected by the forecast steering patterns, and defy the projected forecast track?

Do you mean that pie in the sky projection of it going north off shore? IMO that track was garbage this morning and it's garbage now. Just to explain, the stall that was expected was because of the dissolution of steering winds but all that depending on the weakening of the ridge to the north and that is not happening. And if the movement increases in speed, this is more likely to happen. Certainly the last tracking point of south of west defies the northern offshore projection. That's how I see it, anyhow. I know I am in the minority.