ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

One thing for sure today is that its circulation has grown. We here in the Orlando area have been getting off and on showers coming off the Atlantic Ocean, very tropical outside.

[chaser1]

The models section is going berzerk everytime a new update comes out but it seems that there are many factors for DORIAN and increased climate change that is offsetting algorithms.

its a constant WEST projection with a high pressure system supressing it south of it almost like a magnet moving another.

i feel its time to analize that high pressure system.if it stays equal or not substantially weaker it seems the system(dorian) will follow a path of least resistance (west).

theres a huge war of “proportionate” movements and its effects on surrounding systems.

also at what point does a system make a sharp NORTH turn with this same system not weakening all that much if any at all.

Is it realistic this system will open a small hole allowing dorian to sneak NORTH? is that northern high pressure system really changing that much at this very moment??

8-Ball say's..... "yes"

seems like alot of hypothethical situations for a substantially different outcome just about 50 miles offshore.

The idea that the entire dade county and broward county can be hit with such little prediction that close seems like the last “10” seconds of a ticking time bomb in a movie.

i live in dade/broward and honestly the tone and preparation here is as if Dorian was already near iceland.

so basicly after the “stall” the question of the century willl have a clear answer... on a labor day monday with no businesses open. 20 hours to prepare for a catastrophic storm?

seriously no one here has shutters or cares.

I think that the answer to your questions lie within the level of comfort and trust that most Floridians seemingly have in the National Hurricane Center staff observation, analysis, and forecast confidence. It's understandable to be starring down the barrel of a gun and be fearful of "what if's" but that, and a $1.50 still won't buy you a cup of coffee at Starbucks. Nor will it lesson the anxiety that you're understandably experiencing. So all in all, what are your present options? 1) Board-up your home like Fort Knox 2) Get in the car and head for the mountains 3) Grab a beer (coke if you're under 21) and find a cool shady spot to relax under the passing clouds. I'm pretty sure that if the NHC felt there was even a 10% chance of Dorian land-falling Miami-Dade or Broward counties, there would have been a good deal of discussion during the past day or two of that worry and concern. Nobody would fault you for doubting that wisdom so my best suggestion would be some sort of "action" verses inaction. In an unrelated note....... I think that other's will find your posts easier to read if single-spaced rather then double-spaced.

[hohnywx]

I can't see much of any speed slow down yet

It hasn’t. NHC has it moving west at 7 MPH as of 3 PM.

[johngaltfla]

3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

Just freaking insane.

[CW0262]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... /IABACOGU2

CW0262 North Fork St Lucie River, Port St Lucie, FL

http://www.findu.com/cgi-bin/wxpage.cgi?call=CW0262

[Ken711]

3:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.2°W
Moving: W at 7 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

I had it running west ~39 minutes, could use another wobble NW..

It is following the NHC predicted tracks at this data point in time.

[Highteeld]

A structural analysis is needed, but still. Off the foundation.

[sponger]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... /IABACOGU2

North at 139 with gusts to 168! Goodness!

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1168239808579362819

[CrazyC83]

Didn't the 1935 storm have a sub 900 pressure? If so that one is still on its own unique footing but this one is close. Very high end and thankfully rare event.

Yep, officially 892mb, although it might have been lower based on anecdotal reports. It probably had winds over 200 mph too.

[Highteeld]

Are there any land weather stations in the region? I know they are likely mostly down but I remember in Irma we got excellent data from Barbuda verifying the fury.

https://www.wunderground.com/weather/bs ... /IABACOGU2

North at 139 with gusts to 168! Goodness!

given the storm motion, that should be the weaker side too lol

[chaser1]

One thing for sure today is that its circulation has grown. We here in the Orlando area have been getting off and on showers coming off the Atlantic Ocean, very tropical outside.

https://i.imgur.com/Undc4Xz.gif

Yep, was just noticing that here in E. Longwood (little north of Orlando). Fast moving couple strong showers and then suddenly sunny again. Took a fast look at the vis satellite and was really surprised to see the expansion of Dorian's circulation become much more significant. I'm guessing that the Orlando area may well receive some good Tropical Storm force squalls early to mid Tuesday.

[JtSmarts]

I've been watching the evolution of Dorian's size and comparing it to other notable hurricanes of past. According to the latest NHC advisory, Dorian's H-winds extend 30 miles from the center and ts winds extend 105 miles from the center. The best comparisons right now are Andrew while he was between South Florida and the Bahamas, and Charley (2004) near landfall in Punta Gorda. Both had similar wind field expansion.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2004/p ... .018.shtml?
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_ ... al0492.031

To update, Dorian has expanded and H-Winds now extend 45 miles from the center and tropical storm winds now extend 145 miles from the center.

Dorian has a very similar size to Andrew at FL landfall (45/140) and Michael at landfall (45/175),

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/storm_ ... al0492.032
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2018/a ... .016.shtml?

[NDG]

3-hr movement on my workstation. Toward 284.8 deg. Moved 17 nm = 5.7 kts or 6.5 mph. Still slowing down. Josh Morgerman will have an interesting story to tell at next April's NTWC in S. Padre.

I'm more nervous for Jim Edds who went to Elbow Cay, ground zero, just a narrow strip of corral land just a few feet above sea level off of the main land of Abaco.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

One thing for sure today is that its circulation has grown. We here in the Orlando area have been getting off and on showers coming off the Atlantic Ocean, very tropical outside.

https://i.imgur.com/Undc4Xz.gif

Looks like next motion will be SW wobble

[GCANE]

Famous Chef Jose Andres
80 miles from Dorian

 https://twitter.com/chefjoseandres/status/1168199602895577088

[NDG]

One thing for sure today is that its circulation has grown. We here in the Orlando area have been getting off and on showers coming off the Atlantic Ocean, very tropical outside.

https://i.imgur.com/Undc4Xz.gif

Yep, was just noticing that here in E. Longwood (little north of Orlando). Fast moving couple strong showers and then suddenly sunny again. Took a fast look at the vis satellite and was really surprised to see the expansion of Dorian's circulation become much more significant. I'm guessing that the Orlando area may well receive some good Tropical Storm force squalls early to mid Tuesday.

Hey neighbor, I'm by Bear Lake and SR 436 area in Forest City, I was just in Longwood Wekiva Springs picking up some Chinese Food

[hohnywx]

Mandatory evacuations just ordered for St. Johns County, including the entire cities of St. Augustine and St. Augustine Beach. Goes into effect tomorrow at 8 AM.

https://www.news4jax.com/weather/hurric ... -am-monday

[abajan]

The only "good" news for the Bahamas is that Freeport, with over 50,000 people in its metropolitan area, is on the west end of Grand Bahama and not projected to get the worst of Dorian's winds (although they will get an extremely long period of being in the area of hurricane force winds, so only a very thin silver lining). Also, 70% of Bahamians live in Nassau (over 200,000 people), which is well away from the core of the storm. Hopefully the few people who live in the areas being hit evacuated well away.

Unfortunately, some didn't evacuate.

[Nederlander]

https://twitter.com/ReedTimmerAccu/status/1168239808579362819

Potential beginning of an erc? Looks like an outer eye wall is trying to develop.