ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[CrazyC83]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168264028910772224

Always side with safety.

That being said the NHC is in a lose-lose scenario. If they don't issue warnings and it does continue more west near the coast they will be yelled at. If they do issue warnings and it turns in time leaving only minor to very moderate storm conditions they get yelled at.

They can't win.

So go with Safety.

That's my sense too, but the risk is next time, on a head-on track, they still might ignore it even if it is crystal clear.

[eastcoastFL]

i guess no more G4 flights ?

They broke it again? grin

Looking at TPBI radar it definitely sliding a little more northerly at the moment.....last official obs I saw was 26.5 before Marsh Harbor

It's been at 26.5 forever, when I see an official latitude change I will believe it. I am in no danger where I am but I sure as hell wouldn't be hanging around
in the danger zone, I'd probably be in Denver by now.

Thats Exactly why I'm in Denver lol

[MacTavish]

What time is recon supposed to arrive?

[sikkar]

What time is recon supposed to arrive?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/recon/

[Force0408]

Is there any validity to Hebert's Box and the current path of this storm? How many storms has there been that have crossed this box and not struck south Florida??

[birdwomn]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168264028910772224

Always side with safety.

That being said the NHC is in a lose-lose scenario. If they don't issue warnings and it does continue more west near the coast they will be yelled at. If they do issue warnings and it turns in time leaving only minor to very moderate storm conditions they get yelled at.

They can't win.

So go with Safety.

That's my sense too, but the risk is next time, on a head-on track, they still might ignore it even if it is crystal clear.

Therein lies the reason that you need to make your personal plans based on your actual home, neighborhood, comfort level, etc. well before there is an impending storm. When we dealt with Irma, I just had to keep telling myself "you have had a plan for 30 years - work your plan - don't second guess yourself based on outside noise from others." That's what works for me, anyway. But then, my first Hurricane was Camille as a very young child.

[Ken711]

5:00 PM EDT Sun Sep 1
Location: 26.6°N 77.3°W
Moving: W at 5 mph
Min pressure: 910 mb
Max sustained: 185 mph

[Highteeld]

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168266438739517440

[KC7NEC]

BULLETIN
Hurricane Dorian Advisory Number 34
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL052019
500 PM EDT Sun Sep 01 2019

...EYE OF CATASTROPHIC HURRICANE DORIAN CRAWLING OVER THE ABACOS
ISLANDS IN THE BAHAMAS...
...DORIAN'S FURY NOW AIMING TOWARD GRAND BAHAMA...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.6N 77.3W
ABOUT 95 MI...150 KM E OF FREEPORT GRAND BAHAMA ISLAND
ABOUT 175 MI...280 KM E OF WEST PALM BEACH FLORIDA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...185 MPH...295 KM/H
PRESENT MOVEMENT...W OR 270 DEGREES AT 5 MPH...7 KM/H
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...910 MB...26.88 INCHES

[Michele B]

They broke it again? grin

Looking at TPBI radar it definitely sliding a little more northerly at the moment.....last official obs I saw was 26.5 before Marsh Harbor

It's been at 26.5 forever, when I see an official latitude change I will believe it. I am in no danger where I am but I sure as hell wouldn't be hanging around
in the danger zone, I'd probably be in Denver by now.

Dorian is still right at 26.5 Latitude and has been that way for much of the afternoon. It still id mobing genefally westward at 7.mph

TS Warnings issued for well west of Lake Okeechobee is concerning tho. I’m not going to breathe until it’s Well north of my latitude.

[johngaltfla]

055
WTNT25 KNHC 012055
TCMAT5

HURRICANE DORIAN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER 34
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL052019
2100 UTC SUN SEP 01 2019

CHANGES IN WATCHES AND WARNINGS WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A STORM SURGE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM LANTANA TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A STORM SURGE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE.

A HURRICANE WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM JUPITER INLET TO THE
VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY
LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A STORM SURGE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* LANTANA TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A STORM SURGE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO LANTANA
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTHWESTERN BAHAMAS EXCLUDING ANDROS ISLAND
* JUPITER INLET TO THE VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* ANDROS ISLAND
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET
* VOLUSIA/BREVARD COUNTY LINE TO THE FLAGLER/VOLUSIA COUNTY LINE

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF DEERFIELD BEACH TO JUPITER INLET

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF GOLDEN BEACH TO DEERFIELD BEACH
* LAKE OKEECHOBEE

A STORM SURGE WARNING MEANS THERE IS A DANGER OF LIFE-THREATENING
INUNDATION...FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE COASTLINE
DURING THE NEXT 36 HOURS IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS. FOR A DEPICTION
OF AREAS AT RISK PLEASE SEE THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE STORM SURGE
WATCH/WARNING GRAPHIC AVAILABLE AT HURRICANES.GOV. THIS IS A
LIFE-THREATENING SITUATION. PERSONS LOCATED WITHIN THESE AREAS
SHOULD TAKE ALL NECESSARY ACTIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY FROM
RISING WATER AND THE POTENTIAL FOR OTHER DANGEROUS CONDITIONS.
PROMPTLY FOLLOW EVACUATION AND OTHER INSTRUCTIONS FROM LOCAL
OFFICIALS.

A STORM SURGE WATCH MEANS THERE IS A POSSIBILITY OF LIFE-
THREATENING INUNDATION FROM RISING WATER MOVING INLAND FROM THE
COASTLINE IN THE INDICATED LOCATIONS DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE AND
PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA. A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS ELSEWHERE ALONG THE EAST COAST OF FLORIDA SHOULD CONTINUE
TO MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF DORIAN...AS ADDITIONAL WATCHES OR
WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED LATER TODAY.

HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN 10 NM

PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 4 KT

ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE 910 MB
EYE DIAMETER 10 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS 160 KT WITH GUSTS TO 195 KT.
64 KT....... 40NE 30SE 25SW 25NW.
50 KT....... 80NE 50SE 50SW 50NW.
34 KT.......120NE 110SE 70SW 90NW.
12 FT SEAS..180NE 120SE 90SW 210NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT. RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.

REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 26.6N 77.3W AT 01/2100Z
AT 01/1800Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 26.5N 77.1W

FORECAST VALID 02/0600Z 26.7N 78.1W
MAX WIND 155 KT...GUSTS 190 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 02/1800Z 26.8N 78.7W
MAX WIND 145 KT...GUSTS 175 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 90NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/0600Z 27.0N 79.0W
MAX WIND 135 KT...GUSTS 165 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 30SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 80NE 50SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...120NE 110SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 03/1800Z 27.7N 79.5W
MAX WIND 125 KT...GUSTS 150 KT.
64 KT... 40NE 40SE 30SW 30NW.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 60NW.
34 KT...120NE 120SE 60SW 100NW.

FORECAST VALID 04/1800Z 30.0N 80.3W
MAX WIND 105 KT...GUSTS 130 KT.
50 KT... 70NE 60SE 40SW 50NW.
34 KT...140NE 140SE 70SW 100NW.

EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 150 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 175 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 15 KT EACH DAY

OUTLOOK VALID 05/1800Z 33.0N 78.5W
MAX WIND 90 KT...GUSTS 110 KT.

OUTLOOK VALID 06/1800Z 36.5N 73.5W
MAX WIND 80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.

REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 26.6N 77.3W

INTERMEDIATE PUBLIC ADVISORY...WTNT35 KNHC/MIATCPAT5...AT 02/0000Z

NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/0300Z

$$
FORECASTER AVILA

[KWT]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

[hiflyer]

5pm. Climbed just a bit...

[jlauderdal]

The 5am update this morning said at 5pm now Dorian should be at 77.1 W. Dorian right now as of 4:00Pm was at 77.3 W so dorian is currently faster than was forecast.

every mile matters for the ec of florida and beyond as it even if it stays offshore it affects trajectory, very simple math, nobody should discount this issue with the speed, it may still stop and turn around freeport but it appears it will go past there based on the forward speed, next thing to look for is any wsw movement, unlikely but nobody should be surprised, there has been model support

[johngaltfla]

Good call on the slow down. No let us hope it turns as forecast. Interesting warnings issued, that's for sure.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Still moving west at 7mph

[Do_For_Love]

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1168266438739517440

I mean, you have to think theres gonna be ERC coming soon, right? Dorian has been intensifying non stop for like a week

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Still moving west at 7mph

Ups...just now 5mph

[ozonepete]

https://twitter.com/CC_StormWatch/status/1168264028910772224

Always side with safety.

That being said the NHC is in a lose-lose scenario. If they don't issue warnings and it does continue more west near the coast they will be yelled at. If they do issue warnings and it turns in time leaving only minor to very moderate storm conditions they get yelled at.

They can't win.

So go with Safety.

They've gone through scenario this many, many times. I don't think a life has ever been lost because they made a serious error due to incompetence. So far it looks like they are making exactly the right moves and they always say in their advisories to people near the warned areas to pay strict attention so that the NHC can keep thm safe if there are any changes.

[Ken711]

2hr movement toward 286 deg at 5.1 kts.

Even a slight wnw is probably good to see.

Yeah, I'd say the better news is the slowing down in the forward speed, probably indicating the steering currents are starting to weaken a little.

Key timeframe for the northerly turn appears to be 12z tomorrow, hopfully its gone NW/N fby that point.

Dorian has slowed down even more and is now moving toward the west
or 270 degrees at 4 kt. The steering currents are collapsing and
Dorian is expected to slow down a little more, prolonging its
catastrophic effects in the northwestern Bahamas. The NHC forecast
calls for a slow west to west-northwest motion during the next 48
hours. A turn to the north and northeast with a gradual increase in
forward speed is expected thereafter, as the mid-level trough over
the eastern United States deepens.