ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[p1nheadlarry]

Well I have to give props to the NHC on Dorian so far, many were surprised at the hurricane forecast but Dorian sure looks well on it's way. Growing concern for what happens after the Caribbean should have things hopping around here this week. Who needs September?

As usual. Hope they make a comeback; 2018 was not their hottest year (intensity wise and for Florence, basically everything)

You serious, Clark?

I enjoy the Christmas vacation line but Florence was not forecast well at all outside of the rainfall/slow motion at landfall. Missed the first RI event completely, and once the track was corrected to show it was not turning out to sea, had a 145 mph hurricane making landfall with 3 or 4 days out. Probably the biggest miss since Matthew.

[MGC]

Hispaniola is the key to future impacts on North America. Misses Hispaniola....could be major impact down the road. Hits Hispaniola....likely less impact. I don't understand why the models are showing such a rapid decline in Dorian's organization in the Caribbean in a couple of days. Just don't see anything in the next few days to disrupt Dorian.....MGC

[Weatherwatcher2018]

When is the recon scheduled to go in

[northjaxpro]

Hispaniola is the key to future impacts on North America. Misses Hispaniola....could be major impact down the road. Hits Hispaniola....likely less impact. I don't understand why the models are showing such a rapid decline in Dorian's organization in the Caribbean in a couple of days. Just don't see anything in the next few days to disrupt Dorian.....MGC

Especially if Dorian misses major interaction with Hispaniola!

[Highteeld]

Raw ADT numbers are now suggesting Dorian is a hurricane

Current Intensity Analysis



UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 26 AUG 2019 Time : 145020 UTC
Lat : 12:17:22 N Lon : 57:40:05 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
3.5 / 997.1mb/ 55.0kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
3.5 3.8 4.1

Center Temp : -62.3C Cloud Region Temp : -62.5C

Scene Type : UNIFORM CDO CLOUD REGION

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : FORECAST INTERPOLATION

Ocean Basin : ATLANTIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : 0.7T/6hr
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

[GCANE]

Feeder bands seem to be speeding up.

[Aric Dunn]

At least we will have radar for the next several days.

[1900hurricane]

Looks to be sustaining an actual CDO now.

Agree with this. There has been much less pulse type convection over the last several hours with central convection sustaining itself. You can see the transition in the loop below.

[hipshot]

When is the recon scheduled to go in

I thought someone said 2:30, I don't know if this is CDT or what.

[Highteeld]

Let's hope this doesn't pull a Maria and beeline for PR as a major. They have already suffered far too much.

[hipshot]

Looks to be sustaining an actual CDO now.

Agree with this. There has been much less pulse type convection over the last several hours with central convection sustaining itself. You can see the transition in the loop below.

https://i.imgur.com/bqA3Pfu.gif

It looks like Barbados is going to take this one head on in a few hours, yikes!

[1900hurricane]

Starting to look like a pretty prototypical T3.5/55 kt TS. SATCON is also at 57 kt currently. Looks like a pretty good consensus estimate for 18Z.

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1166011854193352705

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166012649525645312

[CFLHurricane]

Looks to be sustaining an actual CDO now.

Agree with this. There has been much less pulse type convection over the last several hours with central convection sustaining itself. You can see the transition in the loop below.

https://i.imgur.com/bqA3Pfu.gif

This Mfer is trying to be someone famous. We’ll find out in the next couple of days if he’s going to earn his star on the Walk of Fame.

[Aric Dunn]

So its a little less organized that I previously thought. Probably temporary. But the center is on the east side of that sustained hot tower.

[HypercaneKyle]

Getting that "shrimp-tail" look to it indicative of an intensifying storm.

[Aric Dunn]

Its right about here. Train your eye in a loop of your choosing and watch the inflow into that hot tower you will see the curved midlevel flow and can trce back the center.

Sometimes this is a sign of organizing. Might see the mid level eye pop out soon. Then convection will build around it.

[GCANE]

Since last microwave analysis showed center was north of operational track, it looks like convection is firing right on top of the CoC per the RAMMB IR depiction.

[tolakram]

Looks like it's making a serious run toward a hurricane right now.

SLIDER Visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=710.9385375976562&y=946.9692840576172

SLIDER GEOCOLOR
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=36&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_02&p%5B0%5D=geocolor&x=710.9385375976562&y=946.9692840576172