ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

Just got hit with a small band with 30mph gusts. Coconut Creek.

[Vdogg]

I think rumors of Dorian's death are greatly exaggerated. Eye is back over water and cloudtops appear to be cooling. Would not be surprised if pressure starts dropping again.

[SFLcane]

Just got hit with a small band with 30mph gusts. Coconut Creek.

Yup! First quality band of the afternoon. HRRR showing showing some intense squally bands setting up. We will see

[tronbunny]

Surface readings 20nmi E of Cape Canaveral
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=41009
lick on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): NE ( 40 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 25.3 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 33.0 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.77 in
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 84.0 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 84.7 °F
Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 75.6 °F
Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 92.5 °F
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 27.2 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 29.1 kts

Surface Readings at Cape Canaveral Trident Pier
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=trdf1
Wind Direction (WDIR): NNE ( 30 deg true )
Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 15.9 kts
Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 22.9 kts
Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.83 in
Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 86.7 °F
Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 85.5 °F
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 17.5 kts
Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 17.5 kts

[supercane4867]

Recon data supports 115kts. Most likely it's still a CAT4.

[PandaCitrus]

Could the invest in the gulf pull Dorian more west? It looks like the high pressure is holding.

[Airboy]

Product: Air Force Vortex Message (URNT12 KNHC)
Transmitted: 2nd day of the month at 18:13Z
Agency: United States Air Force
Aircraft: Lockheed WC-130J Hercules with reg. number AF99-5309
Storm Number & Year: 05 in 2019
Storm Name: Dorian (flight in the North Atlantic basin)
Mission Number: 33
Observation Number: 06

A. Time of Center Fix: 2nd day of the month at 17:20:20Z
B. Center Fix Coordinates: 26.84N 78.40W
B. Center Fix Location: 103 statute miles (166 km) to the E (85°) from West Palm Beach, FL, USA.
C. Minimum Height at Standard Level: 2,567m (8,422ft) at 700mb
D. Minimum Sea Level Pressure: 939mb (27.73 inHg)
E. Dropsonde Surface Wind at Center: From 125° at 11kts (From the SE at 13mph)
F. Eye Character: Closed
G. Eye Shape & Diameter: Circular with a diameter of 24 nautical miles (28 statute miles)
H. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 96kts (110.5mph)
I. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 17:16:30Z
J. Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: From 37° at 112kts (From the NE at 128.9mph)
K. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Inbound: 13 nautical miles (15 statute miles) to the WNW (300°) of center fix at 17:16:30Z
L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 121kts (139.2mph)
M. Location & Time of the Estimated Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 16 nautical miles (18 statute miles) to the SE (131°) of center fix at 17:26:00Z
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 218° at 129kts (From the SW at 148.5mph)
O. Location & Time of the Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (130°) of center fix at 17:25:00Z
P. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Outside Eye: 13°C (55°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,050m (10,007ft)
Q. Maximum Flight Level Temp & Pressure Altitude Inside Eye: 16°C (61°F) at a pressure alt. of 3,057m (10,030ft)
R. Dewpoint Temp & Sea Surface Temp: Not Available
S. Fix Determined By: Penetration, Radar, Wind, Pressure and Temperature
S. Fix Levels (surface & flight level centers within 5nm of each other): Surface and 700mb
T. Navigational Fix Accuracy: 0.02 nautical miles
T. Meteorological Accuracy: 1 nautical mile

Remarks Section:

Maximum Flight Level Wind: 129kts (~ 148.5mph) which was observed 14 nautical miles (16 statute miles) to the SE (130°) from the flight level center at 17:25:00Z

[jasons2k]

Wow. This is on Accuweather TV. It is wrong - this is Warning criteria, not Watch criteria. No wonder the general public gets confused - really inexcusable...

[HistoryJeninFL]

First time post. I love reading you guys. I also have a friend who is a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. I always have the urge to bother him at times like these, but it's best to let him be.
It's been raining off and on here in the Eastwood section of East Orlando

[northjaxpro]

I think rumors of Dorian's death are greatly exaggerated. Eye is back over water and cloudtops appear to be cooling. Would not be surprised if pressure starts dropping again.

Also, Dorian will have another opportunity to strengthen again or at least maintain his intensity because he will be traversing the Gulf Stream Current in the next 24-36 hours or sooner, provided he picks up forward speed.

[xironman]

Current steering map?

I will be out in an hour or so.

[CronkPSU]

First time post. I love reading you guys. I also have a friend who is a senior hurricane specialist at the National Hurricane Center. I always have the urge to bother him at times like these, but it's best to let him be.
It's been raining off and on here in the Eastwood section of East Orlando

howdy neighbor, I am over in Avalon, squalls started of course right when I started grilling....stay safe!

[Innotech]

its kind of insane that this storm has lost about 40 mph and is still a strong cat 4. this was truly a terrifying and deadly catastrophic event for the Bahamas. The interesting thing now is we are dealing with a much weaker storm (still incredibly strong) with a wider windfield that could impact Florida a little more strongly if the track verifies. This has been one of the most horrifying yet fascinating storms to watch in a long time.

[Nimbus]

A weakening storm travelling at 1mph isn't very exciting or interesting to comment on. Probabilities of catastrophic impacts are greatly reduced and people are tired and trying to enjoy their Labor Day I guess.

It's still living hell in the Bahamas. Tons of video on Twitter from Freeport with catastrophic flooding.

Anyone home? Got awful quiet.....

Flooding will be a concern further north at high tide.
Winds may not be too bad though.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/show_plot.php ... _label=EDT

[Nederlander]

Could the invest in the gulf pull Dorian more west? It looks like the high pressure is holding.

No.

[toto]

~
NHC cone has changed to include more upper east coast areas.

https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... e#contents

[PandaCitrus]

 https://twitter.com/sheniquemiller/status/1168591571626934272

[1900hurricane]

Best track running a little late. I imagine there is some edits going on.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

https://twitter.com/sheniquemiller/status/1168591571626934272

Really amazing the power is still on

[StormPyrate]

Eye is about double size now, wasn't it 12-14 miles yesterday