ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[DestinHurricane]

Will West End even exist after this is all said and done?

[wxman57]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

That is likely, along with land interaction. I'd probably go with 105 kt for the current intensity - make no mistake though, it's still an extremely dangerous storm, and much larger. The SFMR is useless while it's near land.

I'm not measuring much difference in size on my workstation as far as the core. There are some spiral bands extending out farther, but the wind field is still below-average in size.

[CrazyC83]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

That is likely, along with land interaction. I'd probably go with 105 kt for the current intensity - make no mistake though, it's still an extremely dangerous storm, and much larger. The SFMR is useless while it's near land.

I'm not measuring much difference in size on my workstation as far as the core. There are some spiral bands extending out farther, but the wind field is still below-average in size.

The RMW is about twice the size it was before it hit Abaco and I think the hurricane wind field is larger too.

[hipshot]

IR presentation looking better over past couple hours. Looks like a NNE wobble at the end of the loop.

https://weather.cod.edu/satrad/?parms=s ... =undefined

Must be a wobble because it looks almost stationary to me.

[Rail Dawg]

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[ronjon]

Just had our first squall come in from the north here in Hernando Beach on the west coast. Enhanced no doubt from daytime heating but had a 40 mph gust. Enough to move patio furniture on the outside deck. Picked up a quick 0.3 inch of rain.

[Jr0d]

Freeport Airport

https://twitter.com/SilentGrace2/status/1168596103756996617

I cant imagine a worse case scenario for Grand Bahama.

Quite a few sailors in Key West are hoping to bring boats full of relief supplies plus man power as soon as weather permits.

Anyone planning to do this ought to coordinate with local authorities. Those sorts of efforts, while well-intentioned, often create as many problems as they solve.

Those involved know the Bahamas and the affected areas well.

[tronbunny]

This is only surface level pressures. How might these data help?

[wxman57]

That is likely, along with land interaction. I'd probably go with 105 kt for the current intensity - make no mistake though, it's still an extremely dangerous storm, and much larger. The SFMR is useless while it's near land.

I'm not measuring much difference in size on my workstation as far as the core. There are some spiral bands extending out farther, but the wind field is still below-average in size.

The RMW is about twice the size it was before it hit Abaco and I think the hurricane wind field is larger too.

Twice the size would still be below average. It was a small hurricane. Not quite as small as Charley, but small. I see the NHC update still lists 125 kt winds, about the highest speed measured so far by the plane at flight level. NHC won't indicate significant weakening so that FL residents don't relax.

[sbcc]

Guys this may not be the time nor the place but I just clicked on the "Donate Now" PayPal button and sent Storm2k some bucks.

This site is incredible and is the best place to catch up-to-the-minute updates.

It's worth a donation to those who work so hard for us.

Mods if I'm out of line delete away!

Thanks.

Chuck

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[tropicwatch]

Looks like it is just sitting there with its thumb out trying to hitch a ride.

[TheDreamTraveler]

A florida landfall still can't be completely ruled out but it's not looking very likely at this point. It's just insane how close this came. Any little tiny changes could have changed the entire outcome of this. Obviously now we need to start worrying about how this impacts North Carolina now.

[Ronel2020]

The closest weather station (a NOAA C-MAN station - https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=spgf1 does not show hurricane force winds. It is possible that it went under water, but the anemometer is approx. 25' above sea level. The station is very close to the eye. Why does it not show hurricane force winds?

[gatorcane]

It really looked like Florida was going to take a direct hit from a major hurricane either Central or South Florida. Just 4 days out models showed this. The question was Central or South Florida. Even folks on TWC gave recurve east of Florida a low probability outcome. Fast-forward a few days and the track looks a lot different. Still a chance Dorian landfalls or gets close enough to cause major issues for Central and North Florida but the trend is looking better today with the models, As we can see there is a reason why the Florida east coast from Stuart north has not seen a major hurricane landfall on record. The coastline is from SSE to NNW. It takes the perfect setup and all stars need to align. Everything was there but the ridge was just a bit too weak. One thing that is not so comforting - the waters off of South Florida have just shown they can support a monster with the right conditions. All of us in South Florida can breathe a sigh of relief but the question remains when it will be our turn and the luck run out?

[AdamFirst]

Florida has yet to "luck out" on anything...

Tired of these all clear posts when the storm hasn't even cleared the state.

[sikkar]

Is that a bigger eye forming on radar or just a dry slot?

[Blown Away]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

This extended stalling and missing NHC pointsshould keep Dorian farther off Fl coast??

[bigGbear]

Eye has been very irregular - is this an ERC?

[HDGator]

Is that a bigger eye forming on radar or just a dry slot?

Inner eyewall not looking so hot on doppler right now.

[O Town]

Looks like it's down to a Cat 3 now. Not even 105 kts in the NE quadrant. I would think it has churned up lots of cooler water over the past 24 hours.

Wouldn’t that allow for slightly more westerly movement? It being weaker.
Would this be the correct steering map at that intensity?