ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Michele B]

Does the Bahamian govt have an agency like FEMA to help people with rebuilding and cleanup?

It is a member of the [British] Commonwealth of nations... does that include disaster help ??

I heard Royal Navy is sending a ship there.

[Vdogg]

5:00 PM EDT Mon Sep 2
Location: 26.8°N 78.4°W
Moving: Stationary
Min pressure: 940 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

Pressure dropped. It’s strengthening again...

it hasn't

I could’ve sworn I saw 941 mb in the last update. Perhaps I’m mistaken.

[supercane4867]

The NHC took the 120kt SFMR reading as legitimate. Satellite presentation also indicates CAT4 intensity. If this really has weakened to a CAT3 then it must be the best looking CAT3 ever...

[SEASON_CANCELED]

There is zero doubt there is currently a north movement right now, maybe even a hint of NE, unless it's just eye wobbling.

Thought so too earlier but now I think its just the the changes to the eye wall (expanding and not being so perfectly round). Looks stationary right now. Looking like this stall might last awhile.

Sorry...there is zero movement north outside of wobble. There is no movement period

[Michele B]

This storm might change the shape of some of those island coastlines. New passes may be cut or existing ones filled in. Many of the current or former passes around my area on the gulf owe their existence or termination to big storms. fascinating and very dynamic.

Charlie for one comes to mind. Didn't it create or change a major cut on Sanibel or Captiva while heading NE towards Port Charlotte?

Yes

[seahawkjd]

There is zero doubt there is currently a north movement right now, maybe even a hint of NE, unless it's just eye wobbling.

Thought so too earlier but now I think its just the the changes to the eye wall (expanding and not being so perfectly round). Looks stationary right now. Looking like this stall might last awhile.

Sorry...there is zero movement north outside of wobble. There is no movement period

Is it the eye contracting giving the illusion of movement?

[Buck]

Thought so too earlier but now I think its just the the changes to the eye wall (expanding and not being so perfectly round). Looks stationary right now. Looking like this stall might last awhile.

Sorry...there is zero movement north outside of wobble. There is no movement period

Is it the eye contracting giving the illusion of movement?

Let's be real... Dorian (or any hurricane) could stop moving AND stop spinning altogether and there would still be people here noticing wobbles, EWRCs and hot towers firing.

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Thought so too earlier but now I think its just the the changes to the eye wall (expanding and not being so perfectly round). Looks stationary right now. Looking like this stall might last awhile.

Sorry...there is zero movement north outside of wobble. There is no movement period

Is it the eye contracting giving the illusion of movementdirectiona
Opposite. The eye opened some.

Its just not moving. You cant get directional data till it moves

[TorSkk]

The NHC took the 120kt SFMR reading as legitimate. Satellite presentation also indicates CAT4 intensity. If this really has weakened to a CAT3 then it must be the best looking CAT3 ever...

https://i.imgur.com/o2gTXYJ.jpg

120 kt is form an older pass. Latest pass found max sfmr of 98 kt, FL winds of 122 kt

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Call me crazy but i have a feeling it misses the weakness and doesnt lift out till Thursday.

Some models indicated this

[edu2703]

940.5mb extrapoled

Edit: NOAA2 got 942mb

[Hurrilurker]

Looks to me like cloud tops are cooling and the coldest are trying to wrap fully around the eye again. Since it’s now in open water I’d say modest strengthening is likely although will probably be limited in time and scale because of upwelling and predicted shear coming. With the amount of time it’s been over this particular patch of water, it should have depleted a lot of potential energy no?

[tropicwatch]

Kermit reported SFMR TS force winds just off the coast of North Palm Beach.

[DestinHurricane]

It could miss the window to turn and when the ridge is back to Dorian's north start moving west again. May not move north until the next trough on Thursday. Unlikely but possible.

[drewschmaltz]

It could miss the window to turn and when the ridge is back to Dorian's north start moving west again. May not move north until the next trough on Thursday. Unlikely but possible.

If this was in the realm of possibilities wouldn't we see it pop up on some ensamble like a one off?

[northjaxpro]

I have been a longtime member on.here and I am not alone in my sentiments about this. It is called being responsible and being careful to not mislead the general public. Storm2K is a very popular site and I have talked to several other analysts and pros in the businesss who do frequent this site. Just be mindful of the things you say on these forums!

[BobHarlem]

 https://twitter.com/ZNSBahamas242/status/1168635282427715584

[SEASON_CANCELED]

It could miss the window to turn and when the ridge is back to Dorian's north start moving west again. May not move north until the next trough on Thursday. Unlikely but possible.

If this was in the realm of possibilities wouldn't we see it pop up on some ensamble like a one off?

NAM showed this

[jhpigott]

Kermit reported SFMR TS force winds just off the coast of North Palm Beach.

Wonder what the weather station at Juno Beach pier is reading?

[dukeblue219]

It could miss the window to turn and when the ridge is back to Dorian's north start moving west again. May not move north until the next trough on Thursday. Unlikely but possible.

If this was in the realm of possibilities wouldn't we see it pop up on some ensamble like a one off?

Not necessarily. The ensemble members do not reflect a probability distribution of possible outcomes. They generally do what you're saying, and do add some level of Monte Carlo approximation to the modeling, but the fact that 20 variations show 20 results doesn't mean some other possibility has <5% chance of occurring. It's very easy for a single large change in input to shift the whole set of ensembles one way and back again.