ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Buck]

I have been a longtime member on.here and I am not alone in my sentiments about this. It is called being responsible and being careful to not mislead the general public. Storm2K is a very popular site and I have talked to several other analysts and pros in the businesss who do frequent this site. Just be mindful of the things you say on these forums!

Totally agree. Also a long time member (15 year anniversary of registering is next week). I just know what it is like to volunteer moderate a rowdy, popular forum and I think we should be appreciative of that hard work and not barking things at mods.

[drewschmaltz]

It could miss the window to turn and when the ridge is back to Dorian's north start moving west again. May not move north until the next trough on Thursday. Unlikely but possible.

If this was in the realm of possibilities wouldn't we see it pop up on some ensamble like a one off?

Not necessarily. The ensemble members do not reflect a probability distribution of possible outcomes. They generally do what you're saying, and do add some level of Monte Carlo approximation to the modeling, but the fact that 20 variations show 20 results doesn't mean some other possibility has <5% chance of occurring. It's very easy for a single large change in input to shift the whole set of ensembles one way and back again.

I've never known but I've always assumed that the runs were basically the same formula using different input data within the confidence level. Like we know the ridge will be here +-5 so then one runs with +5, another 0, and another - 5. That's a simplification of my assumption. So I always guessed that events on the extremes of possibilities were modeled.

[sikkar]

Looks like a new eye is taking over the old one?

[StormyWaters93]

Walt Disney World is closing at 3 PM tomorrow. I am glad they are thinking safety first!

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk

[tailgater]

No movement but each little wobble to the north or northeast could be very beneficial. Hoping and praying for all of you on the SeCONUS and of course the Bahamas

[xironman]

The NOAA plane is finally finding a decent secondary maxima, could be the second EWRC? If we missed the first one due to lack of obs.

[Raebie]

Love this forum but the Florida-centric bent from some here is aggravating and frankly embarrassing given what's happening in the Bahamas.

[Airboy]

Was not the storm supposed to be a bit north of the current posioton by now? When I look on the Euro and GFS it looks like it should be at or just N of 27.0 N, but it's at around 26.8 N. Not a huge difference, but still.

[plasticup]

I feel like many posters, particularly those claiming that Florida is safe, need to re-read the NHC 5PM EDT discussion:

Code: Select all

Although the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.

and

Code: Select all

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

And if you think you know better than the NHC, I hope there is a "ProMet" tag next to your name. And even then...

[Vdogg]

Appears to be moving north away from the island the last few frames. I can see a portion of the island that was previously obscured by the eyeball. It may be picking up a little speed too. I wonder if the “stationary” period was a prelude to the actual turn?

[mpic]

Walt Disney World is closing at 3 PM tomorrow. I am glad they are thinking safety first!

Sent from my SM-S727VL using Tapatalk

Being proactive is always good. For example, I have never understood why people don't make a small investment in rechargeable batteries way before hurricane season. Seems like a no brainer. Also why do people wait until the last minute to prepare? I buy stuff that will be used whether a storm comes or not. Just don't get it.

[Ivanhater]

Cut the back and forth. This is a historic storm and emotions are high. Please think before you post.

[ozonepete]

Has anyone heard anything from Josh Morherman or Jim Edds?

[caneman]

I feel like many posters, particularly those claiming that Florida is safe, need to re-read the NHC 5PM EDT discussion:

Code: Select all

Although the center of Dorian is forecast to move near, but parallel to, the
Florida east coast, only a small deviation of the track toward the
west would bring the core of the hurricane onshore.

and

Code: Select all

Users are reminded that the hurricane is not a point, and that
life-threatening storm surge and hurricane-force winds extend far
from the center. Regardless of the exact forecast track, strong
winds and a life-threatening storm surge are likely along a portion
of the U.S east coast from Florida through the Carolinas.

And if you think you know better than the NHC, I hope there is a "ProMet" tag next to your name. And even then...

I was one that was on board with it would come to Florida but I'm feeling better now with the stall and seemingly certainty of models. NHC wisely put that statement in there just to keep everyone in Florida alert to the small possibility

[dukeblue219]

Has anyone heard anything from Josh Morherman or Jim Edds?

Jim for sure has been mentioned as safe by a few folks. Not sure about Josh.

[edu2703]

Has anyone heard anything from Josh Morherman or Jim Edds?

 https://twitter.com/EarthUncutTV/status/1168492455886372864

[xironman]

Visible starting to show mesos zipping around the eye, would not be surprised to see it clear out well before sunset.

[seahawkjd]

Evacuations starting tomorrow for parts of Carteret County:

https://www.theeasternbeacon.com/mandat ... kL_gai5NEw

[bcargile]

I’m very happy that Fla’s likely off the hook, but we are very nervous in North Topsail Beach, NC, as many are still recovering from Florence and we are constantly battling erosion. Our dune structure was significantly weakened and destroyed by Florence in many sections.

[ROCK]

Cut the back and forth. This is a historic storm and emotions are high. Please think before you post.

Exactly..Bahamas are leveled...see twitter and FB posts