ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[tolakram]

My guess is that it starts to recover quickly once it moves further away from the Bahamas. The structure is still very good. If shear picks up then all bets are off.

[TallyTracker]

As per the 8 am update, Dorian is FINALLY on the move. Currently NW at 1 mph.

The NHC used to say “nearly stationary” rather than “1 mph”. Wonder why they changed it?

Also I imagine the XTRAP model track is one giant dot right now due to Dorian’s lack of motion. lol

[txwatcher91]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a naked swirl in 24hrs.

Absolutely 0 evidence for this. As it moves north into warmer waters that have not been tapped into and over the Gulf Stream it's likely to strengthen again as many models show or at the least hold intensity.

[supercane4867]

06z HWRF clearly shows the magnitude of upwelling. SST down to almost 20C near the islands

[GCANE]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a naked swirl in 24hrs.

Absolutely 0 evidence for this. As it moves north into warmer waters that have not been tapped into and over the Gulf Stream it's likely to strengthen again as many models show or at the least hold intensity.

Models suck

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/BBCAmos/status/1168840756607488000

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/WeatherNation/status/1168863712830251009

[Vdogg]

06z HWRF clearly shows the magnitude of upwelling. SST down to almost 20C near the islands

https://i.imgur.com/9EVe0cl.png

I was looking for something like this. There is a LOT of warm water ahead. If shear remains moderate and it picks up forward speed we should see some re-intensification, though rapid RI is probably off the table for the rest of this storms life.

[birddogsc]

People here are complaining (and TV is broadcasting them) about the timing of the evac and the reversals. Hopefully, movement starts soon so we can get some resolution.

[Vdogg]

People here are complaining (and TV is broadcasting them) about the timing of the evac and the reversals. Hopefully, movement starts soon so we can get some resolution.

Looks to be picking up speed.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 8486328125

[kaykayjs]

At this point, anyone have an opinion on whether Orlando will even get tropical storm conditions? I'm 9 months pregnant so we booked a hotel by the hospital for tonight, but I am wondering if we even need to bother packing up everybody and the dogs..

I feel awful for the Bahamas, I hope the loss of life is not extreme.

[StormLogic]

People here are complaining (and TV is broadcasting them) about the timing of the evac and the reversals. Hopefully, movement starts soon so we can get some resolution.

Sheep need to educate themselves on hurricanes if they live in hurricane prone areas. Plain and simple. There is always going to be complainers. Also the ones who whine about missing a show because a tornado warning had to be broadcast during it. I'm so sick and tired of sheeple trying to play victim about hurricanes and try to blame other people for the grief. They sure knew how to educate themselves on how to buy the new popeyes chicken sandwhich when that was released But one cannot simply understand a spaghetti model or the cone of uncertainty...

[hipshot]

People here are complaining (and TV is broadcasting them) about the timing of the evac and the reversals. Hopefully, movement starts soon so we can get some resolution.

Looks to be picking up speed.

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu ... 8486328125

FINALLY!!!!

[eastcoastFL]

2,870 power outages reported in Florida so far. Majority are in Martin county now with roughly 1033 out there. What’s interesting is all the outages on the west coast.

[txag2005]

Is there any word on the storm chaser Josh who has been mentioned on this thread in recent days? I saw lots of concern and have been praying for him and his family and friends.

[txwatcher91]

I wouldn't be surprised if this becomes a naked swirl in 24hrs.

Absolutely 0 evidence for this. As it moves north into warmer waters that have not been tapped into and over the Gulf Stream it's likely to strengthen again as many models show or at the least hold intensity.

Models suck

Sorry but that is not a good reason. The reason Dorian has weakened is mainly due to an EWRC and significant cooling of the waters. As it hits warmer waters it will likely intensify some again. Models did a fantastic job forecasting this bombing out in the Bahamas region, making statements like this with 0 evidence to support them is irresponsible.

[eastcoastFL]

As per the 8 am update, Dorian is FINALLY on the move. Currently NW at 1 mph.

The NHC used to say “nearly stationary” rather than “1 mph”. Wonder why they changed it?

Also I imagine the XTRAP model track is one giant dot right now due to Dorian’s lack of motion. lol

Because it’s starting to move NW

[plasticup]

Center of Dorian's warm core has dropped from about 165mb yesterday to about 200mb.

https://i.imgur.com/boWDjNb.gif

What does this mean for a layman?

More confirmation of weakening. Also more likely to be affected by this trough.

[Elitytha]

Last frame on IR looks interesting around the eye area.

[brghteys1216]

Is there any word on the storm chaser Josh who has been mentioned on this thread in recent days? I saw lots of concern and have been praying for him and his family and friends.

Edited because I can’t get the tweet to embed:

According to this tweet, he has been reported missing. The rescue team supposedly came through the location he was at but made no contact with him.

 https://twitter.com/a_a_ronbrogan/status/1168777024271507456