WPAC: LEKIMA - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

Intense...

[euro6208]

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 08070828
SATCON: MSLP = 940 hPa MSW = 107 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 106.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 100 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 340 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is 2.9 knots Source: IR

[mrbagyo]

WTPQ32 RJTD 070600

RSMC TROPICAL CYCLONE PROGNOSTIC REASONING

REASONING NO.17 FOR TY 1909 LEKIMA (1909)

1.GENERAL COMMENTS

TY LEKIMA IS LOCATED AT 21.0N, 127.7E. INFORMATION ON THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON ANIMATED MSI. POSITIONAL ACCURACY IS GOOD. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT FOR DEVELOPMENT UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP AND GOOD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. THIS HAS CAUSED THE SYSTEM TO DEVELOP OVER THE LAST SIX HOURS. INFORMATION ON CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ANALYSES.

2.SYNOPTIC SITUATION

THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH. ANIMATED MSI SHOWS THE APPEARANCE OF AN EYE. GCOM-W/AMSR2 89 GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS AN EYE.

3.TRACK FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL MOVE NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUB-TROPICAL HIGH UNTIL FT48. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY TURN TO THE NORTH UNTIL FT120. THE JMA TRACK FORECAST IS BASED ON GSM PREDICTIONS, AND REFERENCE TO OTHER NWP MODELS. JMA TRACK FORECAST CONFIDENCE IS FAIR BECAUSE ALL NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN CLOSE AGREEMENT.

4.INTENSITY FORECAST

THE SYSTEM WILL DEVELOP UNTIL FT24 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH HIGH SSTS, HIGH TCHP, WEAK VWS AND GOOD UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM WILL THEN GRADUALLY WEAKEN UNTIL FT120 DUE TO THE INFLUENCE OF INTERACTION WITH LAND, REDUCED TCHP AND DRY AIR. THE JMA INTENSITY FORECAST IS BASED ON GUIDANCE DATA. =

[euro6208]

Raw up to 6.4


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.8 / 937.4mb/109.8kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.8 6.0 6.4

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 15 km

Center Temp : +10.3C Cloud Region Temp : -71.0C

[1900hurricane]

Looks like it has developed a small core feature. Looks a little fragile, but if it can build around it, there is potential to go up quickly.

https://i.imgur.com/algecSp.png

Looks like it did that.

[TorSkk]

A beautiful 85 knot cat 2 typhoon

[mrbagyo]

Probably a major now.

Based on Emmanuel's MPI map, Lekima's ceiling is only Category 4. Interesting to see if Lekima would reach or exceed its potential.

[cycloneye]

Wow,very impressive this microwave.

[1900hurricane]

JMA FT is 5.5

meteorologicalAttributeSignificance: missing
timeIntervalOverWhichMovementOfTropicalCycloneHasBeenCalculated: 4
featureDirectionOfMotion: 317 deg
speedOfMotionOfFeature: 4.63 m/s
accuracyOfGeographicalPositionOfTropicalCyclone: 1
meanDiameterOfOvercastCloudOfTropicalCyclone: 2
apparent24HourChangeInIntensityOfTropicalCyclone: 4
currentIntensityNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5.5
dataTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5.5
cloudPatternTypeOfDtNumber: 3
modelExpectedTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5
trendOfPast24HourChangeDevelopedWeakened: 1
patternTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5.5
cloudPictureTypeOfPtNumber: 1
finalTropicalNumberOfTropicalCyclone: 5.5
finalTNumberType: 1

[Highteeld]

Bombing out on ADT

[mrbagyo]

James made it to Ishigaki, Josh on the other hand ain't chasing this one (which is surprising)

[Hayabusa]

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 12:45 UTC, 7 August 2019

<Analysis at 12 UTC, 7 August>
Scale Large
Intensity -
Center position N21°35' (21.6°)
E127°00' (127.0°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 40 m/s (80 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (115 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[Hayabusa]

TPPN12 PGTW 071248

A. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 07/1140Z

C. 21.53N

D. 127.01E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY B YIELDS
AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT
OF 6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT ADJUSTS TO A 5.5. DBO DT. EYE
DIAMETER 5NM.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
07/0811Z 21.33N 127.47E SSMS
07/0829Z 21.25N 127.62E MMHS


RICHARDSON

[TorSkk]

10W LEKIMA 190807 1200 21.6N 127.1E WPAC 100 947

[Dave C]

Probably a major now.

Based on Emmanuel's MPI map, Lekima's ceiling is only Category 4. Interesting to see if Lekima would reach or exceed its potential.
https://i.imgur.com/7N3JrLA_d.jpg?maxwidth=640&shape=thumb&fidelity=medium

Strange that area near Taiwan only supports cat 3 intensity. Is that normal in August in that area

[Yellow Evan]

07/1430 UTC 21.7N 126.6E T6.0/6.0 LEKIMA -- West Pacific

[Hayabusa]

TY 1909 (Lekima)
Issued at 15:50 UTC, 7 August 2019

<Analysis at 15 UTC, 7 August>
Scale Large
Intensity Very strong
Center position N21°50' (21.8°)
E126°35' (126.6°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 935 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (85 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 60 m/s (120 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 200 km (110 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area ALL 500 km (270 NM)

[Yellow Evan]

This isn't just a major. This is a mid grade Category 4 hurricane at least.

[Yellow Evan]

Eye temp is bouncing a bit tbf.

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 07 AUG 2019 Time : 150000 UTC
Lat : 21:47:59 N Lon : 126:40:11 E


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 926.2mb/122.2kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.7 6.7

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 11 km

Center Temp : -16.4C Cloud Region Temp : -77.5C

Scene Type : EYE

[Yellow Evan]

JTWC needs to stop hugging PT.

TPPN12 PGTW 071454

A. TYPHOON 10W (LEKIMA)

B. 07/1430Z

C. 21.63N

D. 126.69E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 01A/PBO EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W YIELDS AN
E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR CMG, TO YIELD A DT OF
6.5. MET YIELDS A 5.0 AND PT A 5.5. DBO PT. EYE DIAMETER 10NM

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


RICHARDSON