ATL: Ex INVEST 96L - Discussion

[ava_ati]

Biggest difference I saw a few days ago between the GFS and Euro, the GFS was wrapping dry air around the system, where the ECMWF was closing itself off from it
 https://twitter.com/MJVentrice/status/1156867880782303232

[GCANE]

Look at the 850mb vort.
It is basically running from 30W to 45W.
No way is it going to consolidate soon.
And, most of it is way below 10N, pretty much decoupled from the Coriolis force turning it north.
This is a straight track west for some time with minimal spin up.
Usually 50W is where things start getting interesting.
That is where air becomes much more unstable kicking off deep convection.

[Craters]

My sense over the years is that CV developers at low latitude, early in the season, tend to track more into the Caribbean, than north of PR. Are there any climatology experts that can back me up?

sma10 -- Take a look at this site:

http://moe.met.fsu.edu/tcprob/.

There's a slight learning curve involved, but you can get quite a bit out of it in just a few minutes.

[LarryWx]

This looks to me like it is probably going to end up quite a bit SW of the model consensus and likely remaining weak. BUT, as some have already speculated, that obviously would probably mean increased CONUS threat since that would mean less chance of a safe recurve from the SE US. But hopefully it would then stay weak and never be much of a concern.

[Aric Dunn]

This looks to me like it is probably going to end up quite a bit SW of the model consensus and likely remaining weak. BUT, as some have already speculated, that obviously would probably mean increased CONUS threat since that would mean less chance of a safe recurve from the SE US. But hopefully it would then stay weak and never be much of a concern.

Just the sheer fact it is below 10 n is typically a que for a minimum central islands and into carrib.

[wxman57]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

[cycloneye]

IMO,NHC will go down in the % from those 20/70 at 2 PM.

[SFLcane]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

Fine by me...You mean to tell me the NHC did not see this TUTT 48hrs ago?? It's been parked there. Not sure why so bullish in the first place

[NotSparta]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

Fine by me...You mean to tell me the NHC did not see this TUTT 48hrs ago?? It's been parked there. Not sure why so bullish in the first place

Stronger earlier meant -PV from convection weakened the TUTT and made it less of a detrimental effect to the system. Now that it's trended weaker, less convection means the TUTT can hold stronger and shear 96L more easily

[LarryWx]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

Fine by me...You mean to tell me the NHC did not see this TUTT 48hrs ago?? It's been parked there. Not sure why so bullish in the first place

I'd guess it was because the earlier model consensus was much more bullish. It is easy to now hindsight it but when the models were bullish, I saw hardly anyone here downplaying it. Maybe you did. Did you?
If the models become bullish again, I expect very few to downplay it.

[Aric Dunn]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

Fine by me...You mean to tell me the NHC did not see this TUTT 48hrs ago?? It's been parked there. Not sure why so bullish in the first place

I'd guess it was because the earlier model consensus was much more bullish. It is easy to now hindsight it but when the models were bullish, I saw hardly anyone here downplaying it. Maybe you did. Did you?
If the models become bullish again, I expect very few to downplay it.

Wishcasters for and wishcasters against sums it up

[SFLcane]

Stationary TUTT with plenty of westerly wind shear is parked right in the path of 96L. As the disturbance nears the NE Caribbean, the environment may be very hostile. It certainly looks less impressive today.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/gfs/2019080112/gfs_shear_watl_18.png

Fine by me...You mean to tell me the NHC did not see this TUTT 48hrs ago?? It's been parked there. Not sure why so bullish in the first place

I'd guess it was because the earlier model consensus was much more bullish. It is easy to now hindsight it but when the models were bullish, I saw hardly anyone here downplaying it. Maybe you did. Did you?
If the models become bullish again, I expect very few to downplay it.

Hi Larry, Models are models i don't think the NHC bases there outlooks on future conditions based on it. One can see whats going on and experience as a forecaster can take all that in and decide whether those conditions might be present 48-72hrs etc..

[SFLcane]

Favorable conditions ahead...um not so much.

[Aric Dunn]

Starting to see some centralized convergence with a increased southerly surge/inflow.

That boundary between the SAL to the north might be doing the trick. Still has a ways to go but is showing a little signs of life.

Lets see if this moisture plume from the south can get some convection to fire off.


Oh and NDG... thats not excitement lol...Just now casting.. as usual..

[cycloneye]

Stayed at 20/70 but they add something new.

A broad low pressure system located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now
forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early
next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

.

[Aric Dunn]

Stayed at 20/70 but they add something new.

A broad low pressure system located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now
forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early
next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

.

Not surprised. They know better.

[ava_ati]

Stayed at 20/70 but they add something new.

A broad low pressure system located about 1100 miles west-southwest
of the Cabo Verde Islands is producing limited shower and
thunderstorm activity. Slow development of this system is expected
during the next few days while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to
15 mph, and a tropical depression is likely to form several hundred
miles east of the Lesser Antilles. Environmental conditions are now
forecast to become unfavorable for additional development by early
next week as the system approaches the Lesser Antilles.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...70 percent.

.

Oh how the turns have tabled... What was that 3 model runs we go from a monster stalling off the coast of FL to a "meh" system somewhere in the Carrib... Just imagine what we will be saying in another 3 model runs

[toad strangler]

Favorable conditions ahead...um not so much.

https://i.imgur.com/kn7UbOp.jpg

I always thought a TUTT can aid and enhance a disturbance on the W & S side of said TUTT.

[NotSparta]

Favorable conditions ahead...um not so much.

https://i.imgur.com/kn7UbOp.jpg

I always thought a TUTT can aid and enhance a disturbance on the W & S side of said TUTT.

Yes, and that may happen, but 96L will be too weak to fend it off when the influence changes to shearing it

[Aric Dunn]

Something that might further change things is the fact that it has pretty not moved all day today.. somewhat back building ..