ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Every time I go to say "that looks like tornado damage!" I remind myself that Dorian was as strong as an F3 tornado (158–206 mph), but lasted for almost an entire day. So no surprise that many buildings are stripped to the slab, really.

Horrifying.

Not really. Hurricane winds and torandic winds are not the same, and comparing them directly is inadvisable. FWIW you're also using the old Fujita scale -- 185mph winds on the new scale would be high end EF4.

I used the old scale on purpose, because the Enhanced Fujita scale is based on damage, not wind speed. The wind speeds on the EF scale are approximate and do not related to how the scale is assigned.

Would actually be interested in learning how hurricane and tornado winds differ. Do you have an article I could read?

So was the old Fujita Scale. The wind speeds assigned were just his best estimates of those needed to cause the damage associated with each category. The EF-scale is just an update of that to incorporate more recent research. Of course, it has many of the same flaws, but I digress...

That said, that aerial image is by far the most tornado-like hurricane damage image I've seen to date, one-upping anything from Michael. Difficult to tell how much of that was wind vs. surge, though.

[Emmett_Brown]

It looks like a rather large eye is trying to clear out

I see that too on this vis loop: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

[chaser1]

https://twitter.com/AlaStormTracker/status/1168935377308127232

NASDAQ!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!! (AND ALL OTHER'S INCLUDED). PLEASE READ THIS AND ALL PRIOR POSTED REQUEST'S REGARDING TWITTER MISSING PERSON RE-POSTS -

STOP POSTING THEM !! A good deal of Twitter Feed is conjecture, re-posts, and self-promotion.

[Aric Dunn]

12z Euro showing the NW turn possibly coming.. getting very close to the NE florida coast and very very clsoe to GA/SC

Looks like it is already moving NW, though its hard to tell with the slow motion and the eye reforming

[Vdogg]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

Which has been losing the battle with Dorian all morning. It’s already strengthening and the eye is clearing on IR (this is happening far quicker than I thought it would).

[GCANE]

Unexpected drop in shear.
Anti-cyclone back over this.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

subsidence around a hurricane especially one this intense isnt unusual, this system has plenty of factors in its favor to maintain or intensity some and don't discount the gulf stream...considering the upwelling that took place, the hurricane did very well structurally

Especially since it was sitting on much cooler upwelled water which it is now moving away from.
Also looks like the eye wall is closing off

[TheDreamTraveler]

Unreal. They got completely destroyed.

https://www.facebook.com/wxchasing/vide ... 142664492/

[aperson]

Unexpected drop in shear.
Anti-cyclone back over this.

I think it's more that it's weakened enough where it's feeling the anticyclone above it rather than the deeper layer steering from the trough.

[GCANE]

2 outflow channels in place

Dorian throws another loop.

[CW0262]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

Which has been losing the battle with Dorian all morning. It’s already strengthening and the eye is clearing on IR (this is happening far quicker than I thought it would).

yeah I see that it's moving westerly

[CW0262]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

Which has been losing the battle with Dorian all morning. It’s already strengthening and the eye is clearing on IR (this is happening far quicker than I thought it would).

yeah I see that it's moving westerly

the dry air that is

[ScottNAtlanta]

It really looks like the eye reformed a little to the East (on IR loop). I've never seen a hurricane this strong do that

[jlauderdal]

Lot's of dry air over FL.

subsidence around a hurricane especially one this intense isnt unusual, this system has plenty of factors in its favor to maintain or intensity some and don't discount the gulf stream...considering the upwelling that took place, the hurricane did very well structurally

Especially since it was sitting on much cooler upwelled water which it is now moving away from.
Also looks like the eye wall is closing off

The eye looks to be getting smaller on radar but lets see what recon has too say before we go crazy about intensity, it's getting into a better position but if it gets too far west then it will have the peninsula working against it

[Nasdaq]

 https://twitter.com/LiveStormsMedia/status/1168956931152723971

[chaser1]

It looks like a rather large eye is trying to clear out

I see that too on this vis loop: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... t=vis-swir

Actually, even easier seen here on this BD curve https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak
Certainly clearing out a bit. Can't say i'm seeing much motion with any westward component. 'Course, I can't swear that i'm seeing much motion period LOL. Looks like a northward drift to me

[GCANE]

From the beginning, this puppy knew how to fight off dry air.

[LarryWx]

After not worrying that much the last few days and liking the east trends, the 12Z Euro is kind of worrying me for even here in the SAV area. It comes within 75 miles of SAV now and is getting closer to a Matthew type track. Matthew was about 35 miles from SAV and ~20 miles offshore. It had been as much as 150 miles away yesterday on the Euro. I didn't expect this shift and hope it goes back.

Was hoping I wouldn't have to use my well inland hotel reservations. Now my hope is lowered somewhat and glad I held into them.

I wonder if his weakening has brought the steering so low that it has gained a sig westerly component vs the higher steering layers.

I'm about 15 miles inland and yesterday's 18Z and today's 0Z Euro had only 2.5" of rain here. The 6Z had 3" and this 12Z run suddenly has 9"!
Earlier Euro runs had only TD type winds. But the 12Z run has solid TS force winds. Not a good trend but hopefully this ends up just a scare and it trends back the other way!!

Because of the geographic advantage of GA vs most of SC, they put GA only in a TS warning whereas to the north and south it is an H warning. If this 12Z Euro trend continues, they may very put GA in an H warning. GA is in a H watch now.

[northjaxpro]

Dorian is now FINALLY moving and he is quickly reorganizing as he gets garther away from the Bahamas. He will.move into the Gulf Stream later tonight

Shear is not an issue right now and the inner core has reestablshed itself since early today now so dry air will remained walled off from penentrating the eyewall, so that will not be an issue the next 36 hours.

Conditions still quite conducive for strengthening. I anticipate Dorian to be back at Cat 3 major tropical cyclone status after this evening or early Wednesday.

[Vdogg]

It really looks like the eye reformed a little to the East (on IR loop). I've never seen a hurricane this strong do that

Which keeps the core further away from the continent and less susceptible to dry air intrusion I suspect.These storms almost seem like living creatures at times, doing anything to protect themselves. It’s fascinating to watch.