ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[PandaCitrus]

Sadly, there is great wealth disparity in the Bahamas like most anywhere else in the world. The touristy areas with newer homes built to concrete block, elevated properly from surge with hurricane impact windows, metal/concrete roofs fared well all things considered.

The older block homes with substandard roofing or wooden/shantytown structures where the poor local population lived was flattened like a pancake.

Bahamian building code is very robust. Following Andrew they went all in and beefed it up considerably. Miami-Dade followed the Bahamians and modeled their building code off of them. It adds 25%-35% on the cost of a building but those Hope Town pictures show the worth.

[PandaCitrus]

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

[syfr]

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

Do the new codes require elevation to handle storm surge?

[tarheelprogrammer]

 https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1169005265972338689




Josh Morgerman is okay. I am not sure if anyone else posted it.

[jasons2k]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1169005265972338689

Josh Morgerman is okay. I am not sure if anyone else posted it.

Yes, just saw this! Great news indeed!!

[SconnieCane]

With that big, lopsided hole in the CDO that may or may not be a proper eye (looks much more circular and centralized on radar), Dorian's satellite presentation now looks rather like Maria post-PR or Wilma on approach to Florida.

[toad strangler]

This is how every iCyclone chase turns out. Every time. Even going back to his days when he posted on Eastern Weather

[southerngale]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1169005265972338689

Josh Morgerman is okay. I am not sure if anyone else posted it.

Just saw this! Thank God!

[supercane4867]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1169005265972338689

Josh Morgerman is okay. I am not sure if anyone else posted it.

Thank god he's okay. Welcome back

[Chris_in_Tampa]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalATL/status/1169006618446651393

[tolakram]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1169009558167142402

[HurricaneBrain]

Josh Morgerman is safe!
 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1169009558167142402

[southerngale]

 https://twitter.com/iCyclone/status/1169009558167142402

[socplay02]

It's super humid, hot and sunny in fort lauderdale in my shaded car port, but on my driveway, the slight breeze feels cool when standing it. Weird feeling that I am not used to...usually one or the other, especially in the summer.

[Jayray10]

Sadly, there is great wealth disparity in the Bahamas like most anywhere else in the world. The touristy areas with newer homes built to concrete block, elevated properly from surge with hurricane impact windows, metal/concrete roofs fared well all things considered.

The older block homes with substandard roofing or wooden/shantytown structures where the poor local population lived was flattened like a pancake.

Bahamian building code is very robust. Following Andrew they went all in and beefed it up considerably. Miami-Dade followed the Bahamians and modeled their building code off of them. It adds 25%-35% on the cost of a building but those Hope Town pictures show the worth.

I completely agree. Those folks living in those legacy homes built before the new building codes got wiped out. They, more than likely, have a concrete slab with stub outs for plumbing. And they may not be able to afford to rebuild. May have to sell their property and look for greener pastures. The poor are always gonna suffer in cases like this. But, with a little ambition, there is a bunch of money to be made once the infrastructure gets back online. Lot of subcontracting opportunities. Construction is gonna be a big part of the bahamian economics for the next couple of years

[jlauderdal]

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a major

[hipshot]

Appears to be similar to the stadium effect.

live visible
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=4&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=conus&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=6348&y=5352

floater
https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=2&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1011&y=1028

Sure looks like it's trying to build an eyewall.

[Ken711]

https://twitter.com/weatherchannel/status/1169005265972338689

Josh Morgerman is okay. I am not sure if anyone else posted it.

Good news.

[CryHavoc]

It says a lot that Josh Morgerman, who's been at or near the core of storms like Haiyan and Michael, stated that this was the worst storm he's experienced.

I wonder if that points to a potential wind upgrade to 190+ in post-analysis for Dorian. IIRC during the maxing out phase we saw unflagged winds over 200mph.

Given the damage we're seeing, I wonder if Dorian was truly maxing out between hunter passes and attained sustained winds well in excess of 185mph.

[drezee]

Watch the NW drift. Dorian has become lopsided in terms of lift. The NW quad is lifting like crazy. This will cause the center to drift toward that lift. Wild night at the cape...