ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

Watch the NW drift. Dorian has become lopsided in terms of lift. The NW quad is lifting like crazy. This will cause the center to drift toward that lift. Wild night at the cape...

yeah the models are all hinting at it turning briefly.

[supercane4867]

Not surprising to hear that the school he used as shelter suffered major damage, as widespread failure of brick structures can be seen in the aerial videos posted.

[viberama]

Watch the NW drift. Dorian has become lopsided in terms of lift. The NW quad is lifting like crazy. This will cause the center to drift toward that lift. Wild night at the cape...

yeah the models are all hinting at it turning briefly.

Radar already shows that brief turn.

[Raebie]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

[supercane4867]

Landfall pressure on the Abaco Island was likely 910mb based on Jim Edds' measurement of 911mb and 913mb from Josh

[SEASON_CANCELED]

Not surprising to hear that the school he used as shelter suffered major damage, as widespread failure of brick structures can be seen in the aerial videos posted.

https://i.imgur.com/eXdmDzO.jpg

Great news


I guess the initial word of him being shook up is probably on point.

Looking forward to his after action report. I know it was a rough weekend

[weatherSnoop]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

I guess this is where the captain from the Keys and other small boat flotillas can come in handy. No real docking needed. I have heard the UK may have vessels en route to aid.

[supercane4867]

It says a lot that Josh Morgerman, who's been at or near the core of storms like Haiyan and Michael, stated that this was the worst storm he's experienced.

I wonder if that points to a potential wind upgrade to 190+ in post-analysis for Dorian. IIRC during the maxing out phase we saw unflagged winds over 200mph.

Given the damage we're seeing, I wonder if Dorian was truly maxing out between hunter passes and attained sustained winds well in excess of 185mph.

If the SFMR measurements were to be deemed legitimate, the actual peak intensity could be as high as 180kt, given multiple reports of 170kt+ SFMR readings and the highest one at 177kt.

[CryHavoc]

It says a lot that Josh Morgerman, who's been at or near the core of storms like Haiyan and Michael, stated that this was the worst storm he's experienced.

I wonder if that points to a potential wind upgrade to 190+ in post-analysis for Dorian. IIRC during the maxing out phase we saw unflagged winds over 200mph.

Given the damage we're seeing, I wonder if Dorian was truly maxing out between hunter passes and attained sustained winds well in excess of 185mph.

If the SFMR measurements were to be deemed legitimate, the actual peak intensity could be as high as 180kt, given multiple reports of 170kt+ SFMR readings and the highest one at 177kt.

I'm honestly one to usually downplay hype around these storms, but when Dorian maxed out, that eye was absolute perfection. It's hard to imagine a storm being significantly stronger that that, even a monster like Patricia or Haiyan.

[CronkPSU]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

the airport can be cleared and rebuilt by the military very quickly...future US impacts and politics I guess will influence the priority of getting that done

[southerngreen]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

I guess this is where the captain from the Keys and other small boat flotillas can come in handy. No real docking needed. I have heard the UK may have vessels en route to aid.

First responders have to clear a space (clean, dry) to be able to stage the offloading, and s safe path for people to get to the supplies. A nightmare for sure.

[bjackrian]

KCOF almost up to sustained TS winds and gusting to 46 kt:

KCOF 032256Z AUTO 36031G42KT 10SM RA FEW006 26/24 A2962 RMK AO2 PK WND 01046/50 DZB01E12DZB13E20RAB20E28RAB40 SLP035 P0002 T02610241

[jdjaguar]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

the airport can be cleared and rebuilt by the military very quickly...future US impacts and politics I guess will influence the priority of getting that done

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

[eastcoastFL]

Getting aid in is going to be a logistical nightmare. No airports, no place to dock aid ships due to to damage and debris. God.

the airport can be cleared and rebuilt by the military very quickly...future US impacts and politics I guess will influence the priority of getting that done

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

[Emmett_Brown]

Some really interesting inner core changes going on right now via IR Sat: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Looks like a large eye trying to organize. Convection is trying to wrap around it. Not a textbook look, but perhaps the start of a larger storm

[eastcoastFL]

My flight to Orlando tomorrow morning was cancelled...

[CronkPSU]

the airport can be cleared and rebuilt by the military very quickly...future US impacts and politics I guess will influence the priority of getting that done

Bahamas are UK
But nice try

Bahamas have been independent for 3 decades

I understand that completely but in the past the US has led relief efforts throughout the world

but mods probably just go ahead and delete this post and the others cause we all know it is not going to end well and will take up space and time that could be used for better hurricane discussion purposes

[Nimbus]

Some really interesting inner core changes going on right now via IR Sat: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

Looks like a large eye trying to organize. Convection is trying to wrap around it. Not a textbook look, but perhaps the start of a larger storm

Some of that dry air they are feeling in Ft Lauderdale?

[socplay02]

Dorian is kind of a test case of what would happen if a similar Cat 5 hit South Florida. The new construction built within the last 20 years would perform fairly well. Older retrofitted homes would perform somewhat worse but would do alright. But there's a lot of stick built garbage from the 70's and 80's that would look just like South Dade after Andrew. Building codes will determine the damage pattern.

Yep, east side would do well where i live, older florida homes with concrete block and steel reinforced..out west pembroke pines, weston would have big problems in a major

I live in Wilton Manors, and my house was built in 1956. It's concrete, but if you over tighten a tapcon, it just spins. We have a new roof as of two years ago, but I was not sticking around for a strong major in my house.

I rented a car Wed when I saw the ukmet model having it come into ft lauderdale basically...the east turn around PR and what I felt would end up being min a major. with Cat 5 top end potential, and the ukmet having significant runs showing that is what prerequisites resulted in a FLL landfall got me to rent the car. Same time I told my boss I was taking a half day to shutter up Thurs, and we left friday morning.

Had no gas issues or traffic up to southern central GA and by the time we got to Valdosta that night, something like 75% of the gas stations in south florida were out of gas.

I'd make that same choice again everytime if I am able to afford it, especially with a 2.5 year old and a 5 month pregnant wife; I think we got very luck on this one down here...I would love to see the sequence of events that had to go in place to haveus not get a direct hit, because as a Buffalo Bills fan, I feel like it was along the lines of Andy Dalton throwing a touchdown on 4th and long to break a 17 year playoff drought.

Point is, I would likely have waited it out in a newer house, because I saw the slow down forecasted (not quite yet the stall though) before I left Friday morning...I think there are a lot of properties down here that would have trouble in a long duration Cat 4 or 5 (actually getting hit with those substained winds), because there are a lot of houses from the 50s and 60s down here for sure.

[aperson]

Sucking in tons of dry air to the west and slowly unwinding on radar and IR. This thing will be a naked swirl in a few hours at this rate.