ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

Quite the feeder band training over Orlando with heavy rain and wind way over on the far western edge of Dorian.

[storm4u]

Definitely more NW now

I'm looking at melbourne radar and seems to be taking a more NW rather than NNW job the last hour, perhaps moving quicker too?

[Orlando]

No rain for Dr Phillips in Orlando as of yet, but radar shows it coming in. Wind gusts about 10 from the NNE.

[BrandonJay21]

No rain for Dr Phillips in Orlando as of yet, but radar shows it coming in. Wind gusts about 10 from the NNE.

It’s coming. I’m downtown, and it just started in the last half hour. No real wind to talk of, but a steady pour vs the bands that came thru today.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Dorian should be just about on top of the Gulf Stream here shortly.

[Orlando]

No rain for Dr Phillips in Orlando as of yet, but radar shows it coming in. Wind gusts about 10 from the NNE.

It’s coming. I’m downtown, and it just started in the last half hour. No real wind to talk of, but a steady pour vs the bands that came thru today.

Yep! Just now starting a pouring.

[jlauderdal]

nice rain band over plam beach i going see go all way to south fl it look strongest rain band i seen over fl untill now

Inbound towards my location...we had a strong one late this afternoon then sun

[Aric Dunn]

with the motion turning more NW on radar and recon.. with the structure improving..

this is the 12z vs todays 18z Euro..

[gatorcane]

Amazing how Dorian will likely just parallel the coastline of Florida and SE US though the Carolinas may see a landfall albeit nothing as strong as the Bahamas saw. Assuming he behaves, keeps the core and strongest winds offshore Florida.

Continues to look like Dorian will go down in history as the “Bahamas storm of the century” which gave a big scare to Florida.

[otowntiger]

No rain for Dr Phillips in Orlando as of yet, but radar shows it coming in. Wind gusts about 10 from the NNE.

It’s coming. I’m downtown, and it just started in the last half hour. No real wind to talk of, but a steady pour vs the bands that came thru today.

just south of downtown been pouring for nearly an hour now.

Yep! Just now starting a pouring.

[Ken711]

How far do the hurricane force winds extend out from the eye?

[jlauderdal]

Recon still indicating gradual weakening, but the NW quadrant seems to have an improved windfield compared to first past to me

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/618598548921122886/recon_AF309-4005A-DORIAN.png

I don’t understand how the pressure can be rising but the eye closing off and wind field expanding. That’s weird. Also a decent Northwest jog on the last point.

Like an ice skater spinning fast with arms in, arms go out(wind field expands) skater slows down, all of this built up energy from the core has to go someplace so its being sent outwards and dispersed rather efficiently. System weakened today but I am getting the highest winds and rain this afternoon and tonight yet its farther away.

Fyi, hurricanes exist to move heat , its violent but necessary.

[Raebie]

Amazing how Dorian will likely just parallel the coastline of Florida and SE US though the Carolinas may see a landfall albeit nothing as strong as the Bahamas saw. Assuming he behaves, keeps the core and strongest winds offshore Florida.

Continues to look like Dorian will go down in history as the “Bahamas storm of the century” which gave a big scare to Florida.

And flooded the entire SE cost.

[NCWeatherChic]

Recon still indicating gradual weakening, but the NW quadrant seems to have an improved windfield compared to first past to me

https://cdn.discordapp.com/attachments/485132024949112855/618598548921122886/recon_AF309-4005A-DORIAN.png

I don’t understand how the pressure can be rising but the eye closing off and wind field expanding. That’s weird. Also a decent Northwest jog on the last point.

Like an ice skater spinning fast with arms in, arms go out(wind field expands) skater slows down, all of this built up energy from the core has to go someplace so its being sent outwards and dispersed rather efficiently. System weakened today but I am getting the highest winds and rain this afternoon and tonight yet its farther away.

Fyi, hurricanes exist to move heat , its violent but necessary.

Best.explanation.ever!! Thank you!

[drewschmaltz]

No rain for Dr Phillips in Orlando as of yet, but radar shows it coming in. Wind gusts about 10 from the NNE.

It’s coming. I’m downtown, and it just started in the last half hour. No real wind to talk of, but a steady pour vs the bands that came thru today.

I'm in Dr. Phillips too... small world. The rain finally reached us. As I've mentioned before we are well connected with Elbow Cay / Hope Town so this is nothing to laugh at. But, the light drizzle and the future cast showing zilch makes me let out a little chuckle. This is the best case scenerio, but dang was it disruptive.

[Steve]

To havoc’s point earlier, it is super hot and dry under the high. So there is going to be a lot of ingesting continental hot air with the spin around a curved coastline offset by the the heat of the ocean feeding in from the S, SE and E. IR could look like a battle except at any DMAX points. Obviously the more diffused and less concentrated it can become moving up is better for the eastern Carolinas. The more struggling obviously the better.

[northjaxpro]

Patrick AFB reported gust to 48 mph in the past half hour in heavy squalls. Vero Beach reported 43 mph gust

Northjax not liking the western model shifts up near JAX. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the city heading N-NW? I can't ever remember a track like that. Not saying it will happen here, but ridging seems to be building west around 30 N.

Dorian definìtely on a NW movement , but there are woobles of the eyewall which seem to inch closer and closer to the coast by the hour. I think we willl see a slight shift inland of tropical stòrm force winds about 25-30 miles inland. Winds will routinely gusts to 60 mph or more at the coast and if the trend I keep seeing continues,.we are going to get hurricane force winds at or near the coast during tomorrow.

Also, two my knowledge, Jacksonville has NEVER had a landfalling tropical cyclone moving from the south/southeast. The two direct landfalls in Jax history were Hurricane Dora in Sept 1964 and Tropical Storm Beryl on Memorial Day Weekend in 2012, both directly from the east. It is very difficult for cyclones to directly landfall here due to the shape of the Northeast Florida coastline. It bends or tucks in away from the ocean.

[PandaCitrus]

Everyone needs to carefully watch how the eyewall develops. Right now, there is an 80 mile diameter void of precipitation on radar, and within that is a 40 diameter eyewall with narrow bands that are having trouble getting together surrounding by this 80 mile wide void. I don't know how the eyewall develops but it could be absolutely grotesquely huge.

In these asymmetrical storms, the center landfall doesn't matter. The entire coastline from north florida to North Carolina would get the worst weather in the northwest quadrant with such a huge eyewall. It doesn't matter if it comes onshore or 50 miles offshore.

Amazing how Dorian will likely just parallel the coastline of Florida and SE US though the Carolinas may see a landfall albeit nothing as strong as the Bahamas saw. Assuming he behaves, keeps the core and strongest winds offshore Florida.

Continues to look like Dorian will go down in history as the “Bahamas storm of the century” which gave a big scare to Florida.

[jaxfladude]

Patrick AFB reported gust to 48 mph in the past half hour in heavy squalls. Vero Beach reported 43 mph gust

Northjax not liking the western model shifts up near JAX. Has there ever been a hurricane hit the city heading N-NW? I can't ever remember a track like that. Not saying it will happen here, but ridging seems to be building west around 30 N.

Dorian definìtely on a NW movement , but there are woobles of the eyewall which seem to inch closer and closer to the coast by the hour. I think we willl see a slight shift inland of tropical stòrm force winds about 25-30 miles inland. Winds will routinely gusts to 60 mph or more at the coast and if the trend I keep seeing continues,.we are going to get hurricane force winds at or near the coast during tomorrow.

Also, two my knowledge, Jacksonville has NEVER had a landfalling tropical cyclone moving from the south/southeast. The two direct landfalls in Jax history were Hurricane Dora in Sept 1964 and Tropical Storm Beryl on Memorial Day Weekend in 2012, both directly from the east, which is very difgicult for cyclones to do here due to the shape of the Northeast Florida coastline.

Yikes I sure don't want Dorian to pull off anymore surprises in track and intensity not after how it managed to avoid the mountains of the islands in the Caribbean pretty much untouched and specifically after the horrific damages and loss of life Dorian has had on The Bahamas............

[aperson]

The eye has organized substantially recently imo and now has a persistent warm spot on dvorak enhancement