ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

There are multiple folks from Florida who make regular, useful contributions to the discussion. I rely on their discussions/debates/arguments and the NHC to guide me when I am making decisions. When our Florida peep's posts begin to drop off, I KNOW I am missing out on valuable information I could never find nor interpret on my own. One gets spoiled, I guess.

Most posters are not vested in meteorology overall which is understandable. if you ever have any questions you can always ask either on forum or PM anyone. I will always answer my PM's and do my best to help.

Another good place to check is the S2k Chat on Discord.

[psyclone]

I think Dorian poses a significant threat especially to the Carolinas. I am still tuned in for sure

[TheDreamTraveler]

I think Dorian poses a significant threat especially to the Carolinas. I am still tuned in for sure

Definitely. Possibly even North Florida or Georgia.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1169064411308253184

[CrazyC83]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

I understand your frustration and concern. However, Florida is- or soon will be- experiencing hurricane force wind and storm surge. And the storm has recently been wobbling more toward the west. I have family and friends there. Until the storm clears Florida, it's a "consideration." I suspect that when the storm gets closer to you, the activity will pick up.

One major reason is because we have far more members in Florida than in most other states. I remember storms like Irene and Sandy were like that as well.

[tropicwatch]

Power outages on the increase in Florida. 10,000+
https://poweroutage.us/

[TheDreamTraveler]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

I understand your frustration and concern. However, Florida is- or soon will be- experiencing hurricane force wind and storm surge. And the storm has recently been wobbling more toward the west. I have family and friends there. Until the storm clears Florida, it's a "consideration." I suspect that when the storm gets closer to you, the activity will pick up.

One major reason is because we have far more members in Florida than in most other states. I remember storms like Irene and Sandy were like that as well.

Yeah the board has a huge gulf texas/florida bias. There's plenty of other sites that talk about weather that have pretty good representation everywhere. Try americanwx.com they've got some really great meteorologists that post over there and they discuss everything weather related. Most of the people there are from the east US. The Dorian thread there has been pretty informative but its died down there as well.

[TheDreamTraveler]

I have to say, while a storm is potentially going to impact Florida, this page is one of the most informative tropical pages I know of. The posters are generally well informed, if not pro-mets or near pro-mets. But, it gets depressing for those of us that live north of Florida when Florida is no longer a real consideration for the storm. Page counts go from 6-10 an hour down to 2 an hour, if lucky. How can we get more informed posters from the coastal states north of Florida to join and post on the page?

There are multiple folks from Florida who make regular, useful contributions to the discussion. I rely on their discussions/debates/arguments and the NHC to guide me when I am making decisions. When our Florida peep's posts begin to drop off, I KNOW I am missing out on valuable information I could never find nor interpret on my own. One gets spoiled, I guess.

Most posters are not vested in meteorology overall which is understandable. if you ever have any questions you can always ask either on forum or PM anyone. I will always answer my PM's and do my best to help.

Another good place to check is the S2k Chat on Discord.

I completely forgot the s2k discord chat existed this entire time lmao

[1900hurricane]

I'd set 06Z intensity to 80 kt/964 mb, but I bet the NHC uses 85 or 90 kt. Probably 90 kt actually. The KZC off the 964 mb pressure recon just measured was about 88 kt.

 https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1169120897803915264

[cjrciadt]

Just woke up from the lightning from Dorian.

[hurricaneCW]

He's gonna get pretty far west, weaker storms are carried more by the low level flow. Eye could be on or just off the GA/SC coast.

Major flooding and significant surge still likely for those areas as well as NE FL. He'll still be moving relatively slow until NC.

[Tailspin]

https://imgur.com/q6iFHPg

ragged eye

[Astromanía]

How much ACE this has produced so far?

[Stormi]

My fiance just gave my hell...caught me outside in it...also I'm supposed to be at work in about 5 hours. Hey - I've been waiting all night! Mother nature is every bit as majestic as she is terrible. We in central northern FL are getting nothing compared to those in the Bahamas, and so for this reason, I wanted to experience what I could myself instead of simply sleeping through it.

[Tailspin]

How much ACE this has produced so far?

38.14
https://policlimate.com/tropical/

[Astromanía]

Wow

[Bostonriff]

Looking more like an occluded gale center than a hurricane now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

[ROCK]

Looking more like an occluded gale center than a hurricane now.
http://moe.met.fsu.edu/~mnissenbaum/Rad ... /loop.html

Can I do the WXMAN 57 quote “it’s dead Jim” now ?? IMO cat 1 now unless it mixes out the dry air it’s eating..upwelling, dry air , islands and now some shear..got to think it will downgraded sooner than expected. I would play a quick round of golf also if I saw the latest models runs ...

[chaser1]

My fiance just gave my hell...caught me outside in it...also I'm supposed to be at work in about 5 hours. Hey - I've been waiting all night! Mother nature is every bit as majestic as she is terrible. We in central northern FL are getting nothing compared to those in the Bahamas, and so for this reason, I wanted to experience what I could myself instead of simply sleeping through it.

Welcome to my disease

[chaser1]

Just looking at the overall size of Dorian's envelope, I'd generally assume that anyone from Georgia, South Carolina, North Carolina, and Virginia who is east of I-75 will likely experience Tropical Storm conditions as Dorian makes his way northward (generally speaking) hugging the coast the entire way to Virginia Beach. #coastalscraper

[Jr0d]

The last couple of satellite frames and radar images show strong convection all the way around the eye. Dorian just keeps battling the dry air.

Also going off radar, it appears hurricane conditions are just offshore of Florida. A little wobble west and north Florida will get much worse conditions.