ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[ColdMiser123]

Convective burst taking place just south of the center, and based on mass conservation, that should wobble the center a little to the west from where it is currently.

Dorian will be close enough to the coast where one wobble might determine if we get an official US landfall from this or not.

Regardless of landfall or not, the wind field is considerably more expansive, so significant impacts are a virtual lock now for the Carolinas.

[HDGator]

Pressure is holding steady, but winds are up a little on the latest pass. This suggests that Dorian has more or less stopped weakening and the core may be in the process of resharpening slightly. This is consistent with microwave imagery showing the reestablishment of a single brightness max eyewall band. The core covers a lot of real estate, so I wouldn't expect any significant strengthening, bur I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase back up to the KZC expected velocities for the 964 mb pressure of about 90 kt, with slight deepening bumping it up to 95-100 kt. Regardless, we're no longer hugging the ~80 kt expected AH77 winds.

https://i.imgur.com/40a2XOU.png

https://i.imgur.com/EP6QvS0.png

https://i.imgur.com/iiw0t9u.jpg

This microwave presentation reminds me the WPAC systems after multiple EWRCs. I believe it's quite rare to see a large well defined eyewall like this in the Atlantic

He's still sticking together while pushing ~60mph gusts along the coast.

[northjaxpro]

Convective burst taking place just south of the center, and based on mass conservation, that should wobble the center a little to the west from where it is currently.

Dorian will be close enough to the coast where one wobble might determine if we get an official US landfall from this or not.

Regardless of landfall or not, the wind field is considerably more expansive, so significant impacts are a virtual lock now for the Carolinas.

I thought last night when I took a power nap that Dorian may still attain back a Cat 3 status traversing the Gulf Stream. I still think its possible looking at how he is organizing right now.

[Vdogg]

Nice little westward jog just now. Getting close to 80w...

[ColdMiser123]

Convective burst taking place just south of the center, and based on mass conservation, that should wobble the center a little to the west from where it is currently.

Dorian will be close enough to the coast where one wobble might determine if we get an official US landfall from this or not.

Regardless of landfall or not, the wind field is considerably more expansive, so significant impacts are a virtual lock now for the Carolinas.

I thought last night when I took a poeer nap that Dorian may still attain back a Cat 3 status traversing the Gulf Stream. I still think its possible looking at how he is organizing right now.

It's pretty tough to get meaningful intensification when the wind field has gotten this broad.

[Highteeld]

Pressure down 1 MB since last pass. 963 with 3 kt wind. Like the guy above said, it will be a challenge to get intensification in earnest with Dorian. Would take an incredible amount of latent heating.

[tolakram]

4 hour live loop

https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&z=1&im=60&ts=4&st=0&et=0&speed=30&motion=loop&map=1&lat=0&opacity%5B0%5D=1&hidden%5B0%5D=0&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&sec=mesoscale_01&p%5B0%5D=band_02&x=1132.8665161132812&y=1081.8739624023438

[psyclone]

Dorian is likely to deliver quite a blast especially from near the Charleston area up to the OBX....with that huge center and the track very close to the coast a direct landfall remains possible and significant impacts look very likely. The one saving grace is the expected increase in forward motion but this looks rough up there.

[GCANE]

That tower is spinning in closer to the center.

[FLpanhandle91]

Center of Dorian undoubtedly becoming tighter and better organized. Cold cloud tops firing as we speak on the west, north, and south side of the eye. Likely making one last run at major. Recon should give us a live look at it on the next few passes.

[northjaxpro]

Convective burst taking place just south of the center, and based on mass conservation, that should wobble the center a little to the west from where it is currently.

Dorian will be close enough to the coast where one wobble might determine if we get an official US landfall from this or not.

Regardless of landfall or not, the wind field is considerably more expansive, so significant impacts are a virtual lock now for the Carolinas.

I thought last night when I took a power nap that Dorian may still attain back a Cat 3 status traversing the Gulf Stream. I still think its possible looking at how he is organizing right now.

It's pretty tough to get meaningful intensification when the wind field has gotten this broad.

Yeah it is Cold Miser. It is harder for a storm to intensify with such an expansive windfield. It is such a large cyclone, but Dorian still has quite the structure. This unfortunately has been one cyclone for the ages for sure.

Praying for all along the Southeast U.S. Coast and to the NC Coast and Viginia .

[GCANE]

[psyclone]

Broad wind field is double edged sword. tough to deepen but equally tough to fill. Old and steady state (which is plenty bad). Dorian is durable. And with that monster windfield with ocean is in motion...serious water action..surge, battering waves and erosion..it is going to leave a mark. Coastal water action would be my biggest concern. Hopefully the faster motion will keep rain totals in check and near the coast negating freshwater flood risk to some degree with a moderate wind threat. But you put a big area of storm force winds over the ocean...you're going to have some issues. And eventually for portions of Atlantic Canada too.

[ColdMiser123]

I thought last night when I took a power nap that Dorian may still attain back a Cat 3 status traversing the Gulf Stream. I still think its possible looking at how he is organizing right now.

It's pretty tough to get meaningful intensification when the wind field has gotten this broad.

Yeah it is Cold Miser. It is harder for a storm to intensify with such an expansive windfield. It us such a large cyclone, but Dorian still has quite the structure. This unfortunately has been one cyclone for the ages for sure.

Praying for all along the Southeast U.S. Coast and to the NC Coast and Viginia .

NWP global models cannot resolve these kinds of wobbles, so any short term wobble will also likely shift the resultant short term forecast tracks.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Here we go ahead my town Newport NC expected to take a direct blast from Dorian. People rebuilding from Florence last year. Such is life on the coast of NC we stick out like a sore thumb lol. At least Dorian is supposed to come through relatively quickly.

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[Mzshellg]

Thank you to everyone sticking around and giving crucial information for us who are still under the gun. I'm inland in SC, and I always come here first whenever a storm is approaching the U.S. I've been lurking for years and have learned so much from you all. More than from my local meteorologists.

[tarheelprogrammer]

My family and I are riding the storm out here in Southport, NC. Hopefully, it will be a quick event. I remember Matthew when we rode it out and it caused some issues here with trees down and what not. Stay safe everyone.

[1900hurricane]

Pressure is holding steady, but winds are up a little on the latest pass. This suggests that Dorian has more or less stopped weakening and the core may be in the process of resharpening slightly. This is consistent with microwave imagery showing the reestablishment of a single brightness max eyewall band. The core covers a lot of real estate, so I wouldn't expect any significant strengthening, bur I wouldn't be surprised to see winds increase back up to the KZC expected velocities for the 964 mb pressure of about 90 kt, with slight deepening bumping it up to 95-100 kt. Regardless, we're no longer hugging the ~80 kt expected AH77 winds.

https://i.imgur.com/40a2XOU.png

https://i.imgur.com/EP6QvS0.png

https://i.imgur.com/iiw0t9u.jpg

This microwave presentation reminds me the WPAC systems after multiple EWRCs. I believe it's quite rare to see a large well defined eyewall like this in the Atlantic

Jebi part II

Trami is actually the WPac system last year that comes to mind for me. That one also sat for a while and dealt with upwelling and ended up forming a larger and stable/steady core once it began moving again. Of course Trami was even larger than Dorian!

[psyclone]

It's also a bit of a slow day since Dorian will be tracking relatively farther off the US coast. Tomorrow is going to be much different as Dorian Approaches Charleston. Proximity at that point and the turn will matter a good deal as far as determining sensible wx impacts. As is so often the case, and especially with this storm...it's another "hurry up and wait" situation

[Fishing]

I should equally thank all who are updating on here. I am in Mount Pleasant SC , Charleston County just over the Ravenel bridge.
I appreciate seeing whether he is gaining strength at this point and what is going on in cities South of us. I have an 86 year old Mom in law who lives in Old Mount Pleasant that we need to go pick up soon. Her house took in quite a lot of water during Hugo. Godspeed to all those North of us and prayers for sure for the Bahamians. Just heartbroken for them.


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