ATL: DORIAN - Models

[Wx_Warrior]

12z EURO landfall Miss/Ala state line as TS Dorian 1000mb, next Wednesday morning.

Looks more like AL/FL line to me

*Very close to all 3.

[stormlover2013]

like I said earlier we have no trend right now.

There's definitely been a trend in the short term for Dorian to move east of Hispaniola instead of directly over it.

I am talking about long term not short term

[toad strangler]

12z EURO landfall Miss/Ala state line as TS Dorian 1000mb, next Wednesday morning.

Looks more like AL/FL line to me

*Very close to all 3.

I think that 2nd landfall on the 12z Euro happens right at Pensacola

[AtlanticWind]

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 712&fh=120

The Euro 5 day is pretty much smack in the middle of florida

This could be right where it comes ashore , but I have seen many a 5 day off by 100 or more miles
At this point still a threat to all of florida, though a little higher threat to central florida.

[Frank P]

Euro 12 z looks like the AL/FL to me to... anyone have a HR plot of the Euro as it approaches the AL/FL coast... I can’t find one that runs that far out... thanks

[Frank P]

The 12z Euro reminds me a little of the second half run of Elena back in 85 but not as strong and a tad east with final lanfall

[Big O]

From DT (David Tolleris):

https://twitter.com/WXRISKCOM/status/1166422079731916806?s=20

[SFLcane]

18z models shifted even further north around Daytona. If the center relocation had anything to do with it i am beginning to feel a bit better about SFL. We shall see

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/1166420250931408896

[AxaltaRacing24]

18z models shifted even further north around Daytona. If the center relocation had anything to do with it i am beginning to feel a bit better about SFL. We shall see

I still think it’s just the typical windshield wiper effect and that they’ll swing back. This always happens.

[toad strangler]

18z models shifted even further north around Daytona. If the center relocation had anything to do with it i am beginning to feel a bit better about SFL. We shall see

There is no reason to feel good or bad right now. Not until a trackable real COC is clear of GA's will I take stock in landfall output. Just my thoughts.

[stormlover2013]

Euro ensembles will shift like the op did

[AtlanticWind]

Just saw the majority of GFS ensembles are lake Okeechobee or south.

[toad strangler]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1166425899778154496

[chris_fit]

Just saw the majority of GFS ensembles are lake Okeechobee or south.

That is true...

[CalmBeforeStorm]

Just saw the majority of GFS ensembles are lake Okeechobee or south.

So you're thinking landfall somewhere around Broward Blvd in Plantation, Florida?

[chris_fit]

12z Euro Ensembles should be out within 30 min

[ronjon]

That Euro run is pretty similar to 2004 Frances in terms of track through Florida and clipping the NE Gulf

Yeah my analog track from yesterday. Let's see if further south shifts occur as I'm thinking anymore shifts would likely be in that direction given ensemble guidance and perhaps stronger 500 mb ridging.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

Definitely considerably more west with Dorian on the 12z ECMWF. Looks identical to Hurricane Erin in 1995.

[robbielyn]

18z models shifted even further north around Daytona. If the center relocation had anything to do with it i am beginning to feel a bit better about SFL. We shall see

There is no reason to feel good or bad right now. Not until a trackable real COC is clear of GA's will I take stock in landfall output. Just my thoughts.

what’s a GA? no j/k lol. i’m used to hearing lesser antilles so really didn’t know what GA meant. i’m never too old to learn something.
oh and the track keeps hinting central fl by euro and gfs looks to crossover tampabay area where i live. looks like a lot more rain.