ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[NDG]

Is Dorian already trying to transition extratropical?

Not at all, it is still fully tropical.

[Vdogg]

Is Dorian already trying to transition extratropical?

Not at all, it is still fully tropical.

Ok. Just looked weird because of how elongated it’s become, was wondering if it was already interacting with the front.

[wxman57]

Dorian appears to be back to a Cat 2. Maybe 90 kts or a tad less.

[FLpanhandle91]

Is Dorian already trying to transition extratropical?

Not at all, it is still fully tropical.

Ok. Just looked weird because of how elongated it’s become, was wondering if it was already interacting with the front.

If you look at recon data, the core of the storm is still warm and saturated.

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/nwsmoreheadcity/status/1169573480666320901

[wx98]

The edge of the eye is only 35-40 miles off the part of the SC coast near McClellanville, between Charleston and Myrtle Beach. I was just watching Reed Timmer on a live stream showing all the tornadic supercells and he showed a longer term IR loop which shows it making a wobble toward the coast in the past hour.

[supercane4867]

Morning view

[supercane4867]

It looks like the outer bands of Dorian are causing a tornado outbreak in NC. Tornado warnings popping up everywhere

 https://twitter.com/Clark_Ethan02/status/1169576143353196545

[EquusStorm]

Very prolific tornado producer already. Guess it's not surprising considering the immense energy involved.

[ronjon]

Looks like the eyewall will come ashore just east of Charleston.

https://www.wunderground.com/radar/us/sc/columbus/clx

[supercane4867]

Unbelievable destruction

 https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1169495202114887680

[plasticup]

Not sure if it's been said here before, but just a note on people who live at the Outer Banks: they don't evacuate. It's a mentality similar to citizens of the Conch Republic. If you leave, you're not a local.

Wow, that's really dumb. With a direct hit and a storm surge OBX could be literally unsurvivable.

[wx98]

I haven’t seen any FL winds over 95 kt or any SFMR over 80 kt. If they blend these 2 it would yield somewhere from 85-90 kt. A FL reduction would be closer to 85 kt. So it looks like this is now a weaker Cat 2. The pressure has only come up ~5 mbar, so it’s not really weakening much, probably just expanding it wind field out even more as it get closer to the coast.

[tolakram]

I haven’t seen any FL winds over 95 kt or any SFMR over 80 kt. If they blend these 2 it would yield somewhere from 85-90 kt. A FL reduction would be closer to 85 kt. So it looks like this is now a weaker Cat 2. The pressure has only come up ~5 mbar, so it’s not really weakening much, probably just expanding it wind field out even more as it get closer to the coast.

Yea, this is more an Ike like scenario. Very very large windfield and a deceiving 'category'. Storm surge is going to be tremendous, hopefully everyone heeds the warning.

[Vdogg]

Pretty big blow up of convection just now, and the west side of the storm that had dried out looks like it's trying to fill in a little again. I don't know if it was dry air intrusion or shear that caused that initially but I am continually shocked by this storms will to stay alive. Probably remain a 2 until landfall.

[supercane4867]

Wobbling towards the coast?

[NDG]

Unbelievable destruction

https://twitter.com/icyclone/status/1169495202114887680

Very sad, those winds had to be so intense that it stripped naked coconut palm trees which are usually fairly resistant to hurricane force winds.

[Blizzard96x]

Not sure if it's been said here before, but just a note on people who live at the Outer Banks: they don't evacuate. It's a mentality similar to citizens of the Conch Republic. If you leave, you're not a local.

Wow, that's really dumb. With a direct hit and a storm surge OBX could be literally unsurvivable.

IMO, that's a bit over the top saying its "unsurivable". OBX has seen many of these storms and a Cat 2 isnt going to really be any more excessive than the region has seen before. I'm sure the people there know what they are doing.

[CronkPSU]

Wobbling towards the coast?

https://uploads.disquscdn.com/images/71a114b7c9ec03aa307cbd6a20913714cca874050a26dafb1aae79d29b357995.gif

Myrtle Beach and Wilmington gonna get crushed...for everyone questioning those evacuated orders, no matter how good NHC is (and they are) you just can't predict small wobbles and changes in angles to the coastline

[jlauderdal]

Not sure if it's been said here before, but just a note on people who live at the Outer Banks: they don't evacuate. It's a mentality similar to citizens of the Conch Republic. If you leave, you're not a local.

Wow, that's really dumb. With a direct hit and a storm surge OBX could be literally unsurvivable.

florida keys peeps dont usually evacuate either, some do, look they have a ton of experience with hurricanes like the outer banks folks, they know what to do and when they really feel like they need to evacuate, they are usually correct on staying or leaving but not always. meanwhile we have people that go right into the eye, chasers and media..im not recommending people stay. I have a 10 foot ladder to get on my roof if needed, i would have evacuated for dorian if it was going to make a direct hit or come into a little south like miami...west palm cat 5, no evacuation...to each his own