ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[HurricaneEnzo]

Is it possible that Dorian is going for an attempt to get a major hurricane status for a 3rd time or will it weaken from now on? I can't recall another hurricane with such extreme 'survival skills' as Dorian.

Definitely possible it is only 5 mph away (technically 1mph) we might as well think of this storm as a major regardless. 110mph or 115mph the damage will be the same.

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[invest man]

Very unusual storm. Been through more than my share. In New Bern area now. Lots of tornadoes more than normal so far I’d say for here anyway but even seen lightning and more thunder than normal too! We should be getting the worst part here during night hours. Oh joy seems like that what happens every time!

[NC George]

I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.

they've got to draw the line somewhere. With the hurricane expected to move near Cape Hatteras on the northeasterly heading it make sense that the threat of hurricane force winds would drastically decline as one heads north of the cape (owing to both a simultaneous advantageous shape of the coast (north northwestward) and a northeastward moving hurricane). Not surprisingly, the threat of hurricane force winds goes from close to 70% at Hatteras to less than 10% at the state line. This looks like an appropriate call to me provided the hurricane behaves as expected..

Plus the economic effects of putting the major port and naval base of Norfolk, located just over the NC/VA state line means they won't put them in a hurricane warning unless there is reasonable chance of actually expecting hurricane force winds and a 10% chance isn't enough.

[northjaxpro]

Is it possible that Dorian is going for an attempt to get a major hurricane status for a 3rd time or will it weaken from now on? I can't recall another hurricane with such extreme 'survival skills' as Dorian.

Appears to be trying to mix out some dry air but wouldn’t think it could get back to cat 3. However if it can retap some warmer water in the next 12 hrs it could boast just enough. But again don’t think so.

This past week and a half and seeing what this cyclone has done, especially doing the opposite of what most expected him to do during his lifespan, I have learned to not underestimate Dorian under ANY circumstances!!

This has been one hell of a cyclone for sure!!

[bcargile]

Anxiously watching in NC. Many friends hunkered down on North Topsail, which hasn't fully recovered from Flo. I'm amazed at how tight it's held to the predicted track. Looks to be making the turn as predicted. Hoping it bends enough to stay offshore as it passes Topsail and picks up speed.

[linttrap]

I moved here in 1999, survived Isabel,but almost lost my mind trying, and I have always heard locals say that you don't start worrying until the Navy moves the big ships out to sea!

[psyclone]

I moved here in 1999, survived Isabel,but almost lost my mind trying, and I have always heard locals say that you don't start worrying until the Navy moves the big ships out to sea!

For southeast VA it is the storms coming up from the southeast (like Isabel) that would scare me.

[Vdogg]

I moved here in 1999, survived Isabel,but almost lost my mind trying, and I have always heard locals say that you don't start worrying until the Navy moves the big ships out to sea!

The Navy left this morning. Mandatory evac of Sandbridge, voluntary for zone A.

[syfr]

Anxiously watching in NC. Many friends hunkered down on North Topsail, which hasn't fully recovered from Flo. I'm amazed at how tight it's held to the predicted track. Looks to be making the turn as predicted. Hoping it bends enough to stay offshore as it passes Topsail and picks up speed.

Likewise watching from just SE of Raleigh. Steady rain here but nothing notable.

So far, the predictions have been quite good for the 3 day period, at least once the stall got resolved, on a very difficult storm.

[linttrap]

I moved here in 1999, survived Isabel,but almost lost my mind trying, and I have always heard locals say that you don't start worrying until the Navy moves the big ships out to sea!

The Navy left this morning. Mandatory evac of Sandbridge, voluntary for zone A.

Oh crap.

I guess it's time to get off the Weather Channel and onto local channels.

[southerngreen]

I'm also from Va. Beach and this storm is much stronger than most we get. It's giving me the heebie jeebies, but the people out and about today that I have talked to are very nonchalant about it, because of the history of so many hurricanes that turned into no-big-deal.

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.

they've got to draw the line somewhere. With the hurricane expected to move near Cape Hatteras on the northeasterly heading it make sense that the threat of hurricane force winds would drastically decline as one heads north of the cape (owing to both a simultaneous advantageous shape of the coast (north northwestward) and a northeastward moving hurricane). Not surprisingly, the threat of hurricane force winds goes from close to 70% at Hatteras to less than 10% at the state line. This looks like an appropriate call to me provided the hurricane behaves as expected..

I have family (including an 80 yo) in Norfolk and the Tidewater area always floods. Haven't heard from them & am "concerned".

[CrazyC83]

It would not be unprecedented for Dorian to try to strengthen back to a major AFTER it clears Hatteras either. Hurricane Alex in 2004 did that.

[Syx6sic]

It's because they stopped the hurricane warning at the border. I hate it when they do that, it's not like the winds magically die down right at the state line. The official weather forecast calls for us to have a very high and tropical storm with over hurricane-force gusts, but everyone thinks we're just in store for some run-of-the-mill tropical storm. They're going to be unprepared. I'm usually not one to criticize NHC but I think they really make a mistake when they do that because people don't take it seriously.

they've got to draw the line somewhere. With the hurricane expected to move near Cape Hatteras on the northeasterly heading it make sense that the threat of hurricane force winds would drastically decline as one heads north of the cape (owing to both a simultaneous advantageous shape of the coast (north northwestward) and a northeastward moving hurricane). Not surprisingly, the threat of hurricane force winds goes from close to 70% at Hatteras to less than 10% at the state line. This looks like an appropriate call to me provided the hurricane behaves as expected..

I have family (including an 80 yo) in Norfolk and the Tidewater area always floods. Haven't heard from them & am "concerned".

they are only predicting tropical storm conditions and maybe 5 to 8 inches of rain so not much to worry about here in Norfolk virginia beach area except for standing water and a few downed trees from what I am used to. but I can keep you updated as much as possible to this area when I can as long as I don't loose power.

[johngaltfla]

Good luck you guys in its path. You're in our prayers.

[linttrap]

I live in an area of Va. Beach that rarely loses power, we had it all the way through Isabel, because all the cables are underground.

In Ernesto, however, the flooding was bad enough to blow out a couple of transformers right behind my house.

I will report as long as I can to those with relatives here who are worried.

[CrazyC83]

I wouldn't underestimate the threat to Atlantic Canada. Some models bring the pressure down into the 940s and that would be a very serious storm, even if it is more extratropical by then. Unlike in the winter, all the leaves are on their trees and it has been wet there.

[spiked]

Just curious about the eye in relationship to the gulf stream. Looking at current stream maps, it looks like the eye is north of the stream, over cooler inshore waters. Of course, the southeast quadrant IS over the warmer gulf stream waters.

Do those cooler waters under the eye affect the 'cane significantly? Or does the southeast quadrant continue to fuel it anyway?

Thanks for all the great info here, from a long time lurker!

[StormPyrate]

https://www.cnet.com/news/tiny-nasa-satellite-gets-fascinating-3d-peek-inside-hurricane-dorian/
Interesting stuff

[sponger]

https://www.cnet.com/news/tiny-nasa-satellite-gets-fascinating-3d-peek-inside-hurricane-dorian/
Interesting stuff

I love the 21st century!

[Ken711]

Thankfully, it's finally starting its weakening based on the NHC 5:00 PM discussion, still a strong hurricane though.

During the last 12 h, Dorian appears to have started the expected slow weakening trend. Air Force Reserve Hurricane Hunter data show that the central pressure inside the 35-45 n mi wide eye is slowly rising, and satellite imagery indicates that the eye is becoming less well defined. The current Hurricane Hunter aircraft has reported maximum SFMR surface wind estimates of 88 kt, along with 700 mb flight-level winds of 91 kt. Based on these data, the initial intensity is reduced to 90 kt.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 05/2100Z 33.1N 78.5W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 06/0600Z 34.2N 77.2W 90 KT 105 MPH
24H 06/1800Z 36.0N 74.4W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 07/0600Z 38.5N 70.4W 80 KT 90 MPH
48H 07/1800Z 42.0N 65.9W 75 KT 85 MPH
72H 08/1800Z 50.0N 57.5W 65 KT 75 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 09/1800Z 56.0N 45.5W 50 KT 60 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120H 10/1800Z...DISSIPATED