ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SconnieCane]

Just saw Jim Edds' photo from the eye.

 https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1169706591391641601




Does anyone else consider it remarkable that what was once considered the "unicorn" of hurricane shots; a perfectly formed, mature stadium eye, untouched by EWRC or dry air, in the Atlantic basin, in a DAYLIGHT landfall, has now been seen twice in the last two years (may have been more often than that in the last three, although I don't know of any chasers that were in the Lesser Antilles for Irma and Maria)?

[CrazyC83]

It's hard to imagine that this hasn't strengthened somewhat based on sat presentation. When is the next recon?

There are no more Recon flights.

It's still a threat to land, why stop recon?

I believe it is because of the distance Recon would have to fly from Keesler. It's a long way from there to Nova Scotia. Although if this is severe, I think Canada should pay for such and contract it to NOAA and USAFR (and stationing ability if needed).

[RL3AO]

There are no more Recon flights.

It's still a threat to land, why stop recon?

I believe it is because of the distance Recon would have to fly from Keesler. It's a long way from there to Nova Scotia. Although if this is severe, I think Canada should pay for such and contract it to NOAA and USAFR (and stationing ability if needed).

Where did they fly out of during Sandy?

[CrazyC83]

It's still a threat to land, why stop recon?

I believe it is because of the distance Recon would have to fly from Keesler. It's a long way from there to Nova Scotia. Although if this is severe, I think Canada should pay for such and contract it to NOAA and USAFR (and stationing ability if needed).

Where did they fly out of during Sandy?

Keesler I believe. It's not a huge issue now, but come tomorrow since you'd need a flight then too to maintain continuity.

[CrazyC83]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2019 Time : 185012 UTC
Lat : 36:28:12 N Lon : 73:17:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 950.9mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 5.6

Still rising. Could Dorian make it back to major hurricane intensity one more time?

[Vdogg]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 06 SEP 2019 Time : 185012 UTC
Lat : 36:28:12 N Lon : 73:17:24 W


CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.4 / 950.9mb/ 99.6kt


Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.4 5.6 5.6

Still rising. Could Dorian make it back to major hurricane intensity one more time?

Would that be the first time a storm hit Cat 3 at that latitude? I thought the cooler waters wouldn’t support it.

[CrazyC83]

Would that be the first time a storm hit Cat 3 at that latitude? I thought the cooler waters wouldn’t support it.

Hurricane Alex in 2004 became a major hurricane at about 38N latitude. The water is quite warm in the Gulf Stream right now and can probably support it up to 42N latitude or so, then it would only have about 6 hours over cooler water to Nova Scotia (the nearshore waters are quite a bit cooler). If it can retain its intensity up to the north wall of the Gulf Stream, then a cat 2 landfall can't be ruled out.

[supercane4867]

Just saw Jim Edds' photo from the eye.

https://twitter.com/ExtremeStorms/status/1169706591391641601

Does anyone else consider it remarkable that what was once considered the "unicorn" of hurricane shots; a perfectly formed, mature stadium eye, untouched by EWRC or dry air, in the Atlantic basin, in a DAYLIGHT landfall, has now been seen twice in the last two years (may have been more often than that in the last three, although I don't know of any chasers that were in the Lesser Antilles for Irma and Maria)?

Amazing shot, the eye is even more clear than Michael last year

[BYG Jacob]

Dorian is officially the zombie storm.

[CrazyC83]

Still 80 kt officially, but the NHC admits it is probably conservative.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

This is certainly ominous for me being on the NB side of the border. Warnings have expanded quite far west now into costal Maine -

Dorian Local Watch/Warning Statement/Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
National Weather Service Caribou ME AL052019
442 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

MEZ030-070445-
/O.CON.KCAR.TR.W.1005.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/
Coastal Washington-
442 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

...TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT...

* LOCATIONS AFFECTED
- Eastport
- Machias
- Cherryfield

* WIND
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST: Tropical storm force wind
- Peak Wind Forecast: 25-35 mph with gusts to 50 mph

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for wind 39 to
57 mph
- The wind threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Plan for hazardous wind of equivalent tropical storm
force due to possible forecast changes in track, size, or
intensity.
- PREPARE: Remaining efforts to protect property should be
completed as soon as possible. Prepare for limited wind
damage.
- ACT: Move to safe shelter before the wind becomes hazardous.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees
are shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown
over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within
urban or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving
conditions on bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

* STORM SURGE
- No storm surge inundation forecast

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Little to no storm surge
flooding
- The storm surge threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: There is little to no threat of storm surge flooding.
Rough surf, coastal erosion, and life-threatening rip
currents are possible.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations for storm surge flooding
are needed.
- ACT: Follow the instructions of local officials. Monitor
forecasts.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from storm surge flooding
except for minor splashover around the time of Saturday
evening`s high tide.

* FLOODING RAIN
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Peak Rainfall Amounts: 1.5-2.5 inches, with locally higher
amounts

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Potential for localized
flooding rain
- The flooding rain threat has remained nearly steady from
the previous assessment.
- PLAN: Emergency plans should include the potential for
localized flooding from heavy rain.
- PREPARE: Consider protective actions if you are in an area
vulnerable to flooding.
- ACT: Heed any flood watches and warnings.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Limited
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter
currents. Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and
ditches may become swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in
usually vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding
of water occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor
drainage areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds
become near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and
bridge closures.

* TORNADO
- LATEST LOCAL FORECAST:
- Situation is unfavorable for tornadoes

- POTENTIAL THREAT TO LIFE AND PROPERTY: Tornadoes not expected
- The tornado threat has remained nearly steady from the
previous assessment.
- PLAN: Tornadoes are not expected. Showers and thunderstorms
with gusty winds may still occur.
- PREPARE: Little to no preparations needed to protect
against tornadoes at this time. Keep informed of the latest
tornado situation.
- ACT: Listen for changes in the forecast.

- POTENTIAL IMPACTS: Little to None
- Little to no potential impacts from tornadoes.

* FOR MORE INFORMATION:
- http://maine.gov/mema/weather/hurricane.shtml

$$


Hurricane Local Statement
Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
MEZ029-030-070515-

Hurricane Dorian Local Statement Intermediate Advisory Number 53A
National Weather Service Caribou ME AL052019
506 PM EDT Fri Sep 6 2019

This product covers EASTERN AND NORTHERN MAINE

**Tropical Storm Warning remains in effect for coastal Downeast Maine**

NEW INFORMATION
---------------

* CHANGES TO WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- None

* CURRENT WATCHES AND WARNINGS:
- A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for Coastal Hancock and
Coastal Washington

* STORM INFORMATION:
- About 630 miles south-southwest of Bar Harbor ME or about 690
miles south-southwest of Eastport ME
- 36.2N 73.7W
- Storm Intensity 90 mph
- Movement Northeast or 50 degrees at 21 mph

SITUATION OVERVIEW
------------------

Hurricane Dorian will pass south of the Gulf of Maine on Saturday
morning and move quickly to the northeast reaching Nova Scotia by the
afternoon. Strong winds and high surf will be the biggest impact from
the storm. The most likely timeframe for the strong winds will be by
daybreak on Saturday through the late afternoon hours. The winds will
begin to diminish by the evening. A Tropical Storm Warning remains in
effect for coastal Hancock and Washington counties.

Northeast winds will range from 25 to 35 mph during the afternoon with
gusts of 45 to 60 mph. Winds will shift around to the north in the
afternoon and begin to diminish in the evening hours.

POTENTIAL IMPACTS
-----------------

* WIND:
Protect against hazardous wind having possible limited impacts across
coastal Downeast and the islands. Potential impacts in this area
include:
- Damage to porches, awnings, carports, sheds, and unanchored
mobile homes. Unsecured lightweight objects blown about.
- Many large tree limbs broken off. A few trees snapped or
uprooted, but with greater numbers in places where trees are
shallow rooted. Some fences and roadway signs blown over.
- A few roads impassable from debris, particularly within urban
or heavily wooded places. Hazardous driving conditions on
bridges and other elevated roadways.
- Scattered power and communications outages.

Elsewhere across Eastern and Northern Maine, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* OTHER COASTAL HAZARDS:
High dangerous surf and strong rip currents are expected Saturday
morning into the evening hours. Heed all posted warnings from local
officials and stay away from rock outcroppings along the shoreline.

* FLOODING RAIN:
Protect against locally hazardous rainfall flooding having possible
limited impacts near the Eastport area.

* Potential impacts include:
- Localized rainfall flooding may prompt a few evacuations.
- Rivers and tributaries may quickly rise with swifter currents.
Small streams, creeks, canals, arroyos, and ditches may become
swollen and overflow in spots.
- Flood waters can enter a few structures, especially in usually
vulnerable spots. A few places where rapid ponding of water
occurs at underpasses, low-lying spots, and poor drainage
areas. Several storm drains and retention ponds become
near-full and begin to overflow. Some brief road and bridge
closures.

Elsewhere across Eastern and Northern Maine, little to no impact is
anticipated.

* SURGE:
Minor splashover around Saturday evening`s high tide may occur along
the immediate coast in vulnerable locations. Little to no impacts are
anticipated at this time elsewhere across eastern and northern Maine.


PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS
----------------------------------

* EVACUATIONS:
Listen to local official for recommended preparedness actions,
including possible evacuation. If ordered to evacuate, do so
immediately.


* OTHER PREPAREDNESS INFORMATION:
Now is the time to complete all preparations to protect life and
property in accordance with your emergency plan. Ensure you are in a
safe location before the onset of strong winds or possible flooding.


* ADDITIONAL SOURCES OF INFORMATION:
- For information on appropriate preparations see ready.gov
- For information on creating an emergency plan see getagameplan.org
- For additional disaster preparedness information see redcross.org

NEXT UPDATE
-----------

The next local statement will be issued by the National Weather
Service in Caribou ME around 5 AM EDT, or sooner if conditions
warrant.

$$

Hewitt

[Kazmit]

I hope those in Atlantic Canada are prepared, it looks like this will be a bit stronger than expected for them.

[EquusStorm]

Forecast to hit category two again upon approach to Nova Scotia, yikes. That's going to be a much worse hit than it seemed like it was gonna be.

[crownweather]

I hope those in Atlantic Canada are prepared, it looks like this will be a bit stronger than expected for them.

The last Category 2 hurricane landfall in Nova Scotia was Juan in 2003. FTR, the locals around Halifax still talk about how bad the damage was from Juan and Dorian is forecast to make landfall at a similar intensity.

[EquusStorm]

Could well be severe enough for retirement in three separate countries.

[weathaguyry]

In the meantime while Dorian is somewhat far from land, we are getting TS force gusts on Long Island, the last one was maybe in the 50-55mph range and sent garbages flying across the street, crazy how for a storm so far away we are able to still feel his impact.

[supercane4867]

If Dorian does hit Nova Scotia with the forecast intensity, it could be the worst hurricane on record for Atlantic Canada

[jaxfladude]

Yikes!!!!!!!!!! Prayers for The Bahamas and those in the South-East US coastline that had impacts from Dorian flooding tornadoes power outages and surge etc..Now how bad is this looking to be for Canada and compared to other historical storm/hurricanes systems tropical and non tropical and winter storms????

[supercane4867]

Yikes!!!!!!!!!! Prayers for The Bahamas and those in the South-East US coastline that had impacts from Dorian flooding tornadoes and surge etc..Now how bad is this for Canada and compared to other historical storm/hurricanes systems tropical and non tropical and winter storms????

It's probably going to be the worst storm since Hurricane Juan in 2003 for Atlantic Canada

[supercane4867]

 https://twitter.com/weathernetwork/status/1170054056636801024