ATL: DORIAN - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GeneratorPower]

Just came back from Costco...Got 3 cases of water (12 gallons and a case of Smartwater)...and a 14 pack of D cell batteries...

Was it busy?

[Aric Dunn]

sucked in another gulp of dry air.

and the circ is interacting with the 1100 ft peak. likely creating some turbulent flow. Will take some time to recover.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I guess 50 knots is reasonable after all.

[wxman57]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Just was
URNT15 KNHC 270048
AF300 0405A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190827
003830 1312N 05926W 8430 01566 0111 +148 +082 051033 036 052 022 00
003900 1310N 05926W 8393 01600 0104 +150 +088 060035 037 066 016 03
003930 1309N 05925W 8386 01605 0105 +147 +095 065035 038 060 005 00
004000 1307N 05924W 8421 01567 0094 +161 +101 067030 037 061

Nope those winds are WAY higher than FL winds (35kts FL / 66 kts SFMR?). About 35 kts supported in the NW quadrant. Also, with Barbados going through the heavier squalls NW of the center and reporting less than 25 kts doesn't support those SFMR winds. I'll always trust actual surface obs over SFMR.

[1900hurricane]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Just was
URNT15 KNHC 270048
AF300 0405A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190827
003830 1312N 05926W 8430 01566 0111 +148 +082 051033 036 052 022 00
003900 1310N 05926W 8393 01600 0104 +150 +088 060035 037 066 016 03
003930 1309N 05925W 8386 01605 0105 +147 +095 065035 038 060 005 00
004000 1307N 05924W 8421 01567 0094 +161 +101 067030 037 061

I'd throw out all those SFMR readings.

Yeah, cursory glance makes me think those were all rain contaminated.

[artist]

Just came back from Costco...Got 3 cases of water (12 gallons and a case of Smartwater)...and a 14 pack of D cell batteries...

Was it busy?

My son said BJ’s in Fort Lauderdale had to bring out more water pallets and the pumps were running out of gas an hour ago.

[Chris_in_Tampa]

The high SFMR readings at the start of the last set were very near, to perhaps over, Barbados. At the very least, I would assume shallow water.

First four high SFMR values in Air Force HDOB 24 came from these four locations. (Flight level wind icons used.)

[Sanibel]

Just came back from Costco...Got 3 cases of water (12 gallons and a case of Smartwater)...and a 14 pack of D cell batteries...

Was it busy?

Very light and only 3 other people getting water...They gave discounts on water and 25% off on hurricane lanterns...

[toad strangler]

Again, None of this is a surprise. Weak sauce until the Bahamas if it gets that far. Nothing’s changed. Except Aric Dunn has turned negative so we are in Storm2k DMIN. See you at 0z lol

[p1nheadlarry]

The high SFMR readings at the start of the last set were very near, to perhaps over, Barbados. At the very least, I would assume shallow water.

First four high SFMR values in Air Force HDOB 24 came from these four locations. (Flight level wind icons used.)

https://i.imgur.com/btDtNCD.jpg

I think you're right. 66 kt doesn't jive with what the plane is reporting.

[Aric Dunn]

Again, None of this is a surprise. Weak sauce until the Bahamas if it gets that far. Nothing’s changed. Except Aric Dunn has turned negative so we are in Storm2k DMIN. See you at 0z lol

Negative ? nope just watching the circ interacting with the island. always interesting.

its probably going to bounce around the island. very cool occurrence.

[Evil Jeremy]

Just came back from Costco...Got 3 cases of water (12 gallons and a case of Smartwater)...and a 14 pack of D cell batteries...

Was it busy?

My son said BJ’s in Fort Lauderdale had to bring out more water pallets and the pumps were running out of gas an hour ago.

The suburbs in Sunrise were looking normal on my way back from work around 7. Stopped by Publix to get some basics, activity level was fine.

[wxman57]

Well, going relax and watch TV. Been looking at this storm since 6am. Another week, at least of 10-12 hour days. No Labor Day holiday for me. It's rare I'm not working then. Maybe Dorian will just dissipate and I can have a 3-day holiday!

[artist]

The high SFMR readings at the start of the last set were very near, to perhaps over, Barbados. At the very least, I would assume shallow water.

First four high SFMR values in Air Force HDOB 24 came from these four locations. (Flight level wind icons used.)

https://i.imgur.com/btDtNCD.jpg

I see what you are saying.
But which flight were these from? Confused here...

URNT15 KWBC 270058
NOAA2 0305A DORIAN HDOB 32 20190827
004900 1336N 05830W 6970 03210 0115 +092 +082 141027 028 041 009 00
004930 1334N 05832W 6952 03229 0116 +089 +087 129032 034 046 014 00
005000 1333N 05833W 6968 03211 0120 +086 //// 144032 036 047 013 01
005030 1331N 05835W 6964 03219 0117 +089 +086 157027 030 046 006 00
005100 1330N 05836W 6944 03240 0120 +090 +065 163027 030 045 004 00
005130 1328N 05837W 6962 03220 0115 +092 +083 139025 027 045 005 00
005200 1327N 05839W 6940 03245 0112 +090 //// 127027 031 042 014 01
005230 1326N 05840W 6923 03262 0121 +082 +082 150027 029 045 005 00
005300 1324N 05842W 6964 03213 0123 +083 +080 154026 030 041 001 00
005330 1323N 05843W 6954 03223 0122 +082 //// 149032 035 039 000 01
005400 1321N 05844W 6965 03208 0125 +081 //// 154030 034 041 001 01
005430 1319N 05845W 6965 03211 0126 +081 +076 163027 028 038 000 00
005500 1318N 05846W 6966 03208 0124 +081 +070 168022 025 040 000 00
005530 1316N 05847W 6970 03205 0117 +087 +071 164019 020 038 000 00
005600 1314N 05848W 6959 03213 0116 +086 +076 158022 024 038 000 00
005630 1313N 05849W 6957 03218 0119 +083 +078 164026 027 039 000 00
005700 1311N 05850W 6967 03203 0117 +083 +077 176023 025 039 000 00
005730 1309N 05851W 6977 03188 0115 +083 +075 177022 025 041 000 00
005800 1308N 05852W 6958 03217 0121 +080 +073 180024 028 043 003 00
005830 1306N 05854W 6965 03209 0122 +080 +069 182021 023 040 002 00

[Aric Dunn]

little barbados is causing all sorts of distortion lol.

im wondering if we get an eddy develop north of the island.

[AubreyStorm]

Well, going relax and watch TV. Been looking at this storm since 6am. Another week, at least of 10-12 hour days. No Labor Day holiday for me. It's rare I'm not working then. Maybe Dorian will just dissipate and I can have a 3-day holiday!

Dissipate ..... Yesssssssssssssssssssssss!

[otowntiger]

SFMR reading of 49 kt measured, but that was likely too high as it isn't supported - yet - by other data.

Just was
URNT15 KNHC 270048
AF300 0405A DORIAN HDOB 24 20190827
003830 1312N 05926W 8430 01566 0111 +148 +082 051033 036 052 022 00
003900 1310N 05926W 8393 01600 0104 +150 +088 060035 037 066 016 03
003930 1309N 05925W 8386 01605 0105 +147 +095 065035 038 060 005 00
004000 1307N 05924W 8421 01567 0094 +161 +101 067030 037 061

Nope those winds are WAY higher than FL winds (35kts FL / 66 kts SFMR?). About 35 kts supported in the NW quadrant. Also, with Barbados going through the heavier squalls NW of the center and reporting less than 25 kts doesn't support those SFMR winds. I'll always trust actual surface obs over SFMR.

So do you think Dorian is actually just a depression? I realize that the NHC for continuity sake won’t downgrade it, yet, but it seems in all likelihood this thing is just a depression masquerading as a TS.

[cycloneye]

Well, going relax and watch TV. Been looking at this storm since 6am. Another week, at least of 10-12 hour days. No Labor Day holiday for me. It's rare I'm not working then. Maybe Dorian will just dissipate and I can have a 3-day holiday!

I will be happy camper.

[Fountainguy97]

For what it’s worth this station just gusted 55mph on Barbados


I use wind alert app. Pretty cool!

[Chris_in_Tampa]

I see what you are saying.
But which flight were these from? Confused here...

I just posted about the NOAA one too which is the one you are now talking about. It has had some higher SFMR values, though at the time the flight level winds were not as high at the time. The flight level winds were a little higher in the previous set though and they were all in the NE quadrant.

The four values I was talking about that were likely not correct were from the Air Force mission because they were all very near, to perhaps over, Barbados. Coordinates may not reflect quite the exact path of the plane because they happen every 30 seconds and they are rounded slightly in the HDOB message. SFMR estimated surface winds are 10 second estimates taken from the highest 10 second estimated surface winds estimated during the 30 second period between those HDOBs. Even if a coordinate icon isn't exactly over the coast, it might include part of the time over land. Being the coordinate isn't right over land, maybe that was why some don't get flagged. But they were very close to land, so I assume shallow water where SFMR doesn't work well. How shallow it has to be before it doesn't work as well I don't know.