ATL: DORIAN - Models

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Frank P
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#961 Postby Frank P » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:09 pm

Legacy 951 mb h126, slowing down? Off the coast of SE FL
Last edited by Frank P on Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:11 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#962 Postby SoupBone » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:10 pm

I'm trying to recall, but doesn't the GFS historically underestimate ridging, while the Euro overestimates them?
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#963 Postby SunnyThoughts » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:10 pm

Wow..Legacy is @ 951mb @ hour 126
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#964 Postby sma10 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:10 pm

Thru 126, Legacy significantly stronger and significantly SE of previous runs
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#965 Postby beachman80 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:11 pm

This is all assuming this thing hangs on. TWC meteorologist seems to think this thing may get killed here in the next 48 hours. Says there’s a 50/50 chance it will get ripped apart my wind shear.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#966 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:12 pm

Forward Speed...It means everything. GFS is quite a bit faster with Dorian than Legacy is.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#967 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:13 pm

legacy initialized in the correct location. at least better than the GFS>

GFS did not.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#968 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:13 pm

South Carolina might be in play, looks to be moving north off shore of Georgia on GFS
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#969 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:14 pm

JtSmarts wrote:The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.
they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#970 Postby Hypercane_Kyle » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:15 pm

Impressive on IR too.
Image
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#971 Postby SFLcane » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:15 pm

One things that sure is so far the 18z guidance is really blowing things up.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#972 Postby storm4u » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:15 pm

JMA hits Southern NewEngland
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#973 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:16 pm

Blown Away wrote:18z may approach Major status on this run.
you better hope that gfs legacy is a legacy for a reason...949 and intensifying coming at you
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#974 Postby SouthFLTropics » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:17 pm

jlauderdal wrote:
JtSmarts wrote:The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.
they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops


There is no doubt there is going to be lots of air time over the next 3 to 4 days. The hunters will drop enough dropsondes that you'll probably be able to walk from Lauderdale to Bimini and then on to the Southeast Bahamas without getting your feet wet.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#975 Postby ronjon » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:17 pm

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#976 Postby catskillfire51 » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:17 pm

And Legacy down to 927
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#977 Postby p1nheadlarry » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:17 pm

The GFS is madness. It's like spinning a wheel.
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#978 Postby jlauderdal » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:17 pm

storm4u wrote:JMA hits Southern NewEngland

that would be a major win to sniff out an epic breakdown of high pressure
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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#979 Postby Highteeld » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:19 pm

Oh how much have we all missed the hyper aggressive legacy gfs XD
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf

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Re: ATL: DORIAN - Models

#980 Postby jfk08c » Tue Aug 27, 2019 5:20 pm

Legacy gonna legacy
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