ATL: DORIAN - Models

[jlauderdal]

The GFS and GFS-Legacy really seems to slow down on approach as opposed to the Euro which pushes Dorian right on thru.

they are modeling the ridge a little differently but the idea is the same..a turn to the west, will have to see if the models settle down a bit on the ridging tomorrow but its really looking like something north of palm beach and south of jax and the gulf is definitely in play..south floridans dont think you are out of it, these models don't handle really stout ridges well and once a system starts turning west anything is possible including wsw,,, they will get out and sample the whole area in the SW Atlantic and get a handle on how much ridge is actually there, there are going to be heavy air miles the next few days doing drops

There is no doubt there is going to be lots of air time over the next 3 to 4 days. The hunters will drop enough dropsondes that you'll probably be able to walk from Lauderdale to Bimini and then on to the Southeast Bahamas without getting your feet wet.

they can do all the drops they want as long as they dont miss and hit me in the head..between all the special balloon launches going up and dropsondes raining down, it will be like a giant scientific potpourri of data that doesnt always clear things up

[SFLcane]

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.

Indeed! Even the legacy is heading north to. Like I said I would not be surprised if ultimately this heads out to sea.

[Hypercane_Kyle]

I don't think we've ever seen this much whiplash from the models in a system before.

[sma10]

150 hr - GFS just off the central florida coast. 12z had it inland of Jax! Quite a difference in one model run

[jlauderdal]

Oh how much have we all missed the hyper aggressive legacy gfs XD

we have the hwrf to handle massive intensification which occasionally nails it by accident

[Hurricaneman]

The thing is the GFS tends to break down ridges too quickly

[Highteeld]

[jfk08c]

I'll wait until the 00z GFS comes out before I start to sweat. No telling what this run ingested data wise

[storm4u]

Woah legacy down to 923

[Frank P]

Legacy h162 down to 923 mb and hugging/staying off the FL coast?

[Aric Dunn]

The good ole Model thread lol

[SunnyThoughts]

I don't know that I"ve ever seen one model drop 50mb from one run to the next like the legacy. At least I think it was that much of a drop.

[toad strangler]

Woah legacy down to 923

We knew that was coming eventually with this general track

[MetroMike]

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.

Like Aric mentioned 18z GFS did not initialize correctly, may be a junk run.

[caneseddy]

Once this storm clears the islands and survives (if it does), then we will know for sure. Can't wait for the dropsondes and weather balloons to start flying through the air and give us a true depiction of what's happening because right now it's all over the place.

[ronjon]

Tonight's Euro run will be interesting. And here I thought it might trend southward. Oh well, should learn my lesson things 5 days out are subject to major changes.

[p1nheadlarry]

GFS may have strengthened Dorian much more here because of baroclinicity. That's what the simulated IR looks like anyhow.

[AutoPenalti]

500 mb SW Atlantic ridging much weaker on 18z GFS. If this trend holds, Dorian will be a US east coast threat. Big change in synoptics.

Indeed! Even the legacy is heading north to. Like I said I would not be surprised if ultimately this heads out to sea.

Did we all forget that this was never initialized correctly?

[TheStormExpert]

The thing is the GFS tends to break down ridges too quickly

Yes but even the EPS had members going north or away from Florida.

[SunnyThoughts]

Lol GFS landfall GA/SC area then swings around and comes back out into the Atlantic from NC.