WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[1900hurricane]

Eyewall replacement is in its final stages.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1099660337996091392




 https://twitter.com/TropicsWatch/status/1099661899074023424

[euro6208]

Quick to upgrade TD's for any weak LPA's and gets a name for a TS. Everything gets slower at that point. TY and intense typhoons. They fall way behind especially for stronger storms.

That says it all 125 knots for Haiyan?

[TyphoonNara]

a

Quick to upgrade TD's for any weak LPA's and gets a name for a TS. Everything gets slower at that point. TY and intense typhoons. They fall way behind especially for stronger storms.

That says it all 125 knots for Haiyan?

JMA uses their own dvorak to windspeed converison table. For T7.0 storms they usually uses 100-105 knots 10-min sustained windspeed. And for T8.0 storms like Haiyan or Meranti they would use 120-125 knots for the estimates. This can be easily observed from intense typhoons in the 2000s and 2010s. But please bear in mind they will change their scale overtime.

Actually, the 10-minute sustainable winds estimations vary significantly between different agencies even for the same storm. For instance, HKO, which also uses the 10-minute sustainable winds, estimated Typhoon Mangkhut last year to be 250km/h. Meanwhile, JMA only estimated the storm to be 205km/h. This shows that it would be fairer to compare intensities of storms using the data from the same agencies. In that case, Haiyan is still considered one of the strongest typhoons even in JMA standard.

[TorSkk]

02W WUTIP 190224 1800 13.1N 140.7E WPAC 110 941
Bump to 110 seems reasonable, as it has recovered some

[Hayabusa]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 FEB 2019 Time : 191000 UTC
Lat : 13:16:12 N Lon : 140:31:47 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
5.9 / 948.9mb/112.4kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
5.9 6.3 6.3

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 6 km

Center Temp : -19.1C Cloud Region Temp : -75.3C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 123nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.6 degrees

****************************************************

[cycloneye]

ERWC is now completed and it looks much better than in the past 24 hours.

[1900hurricane]

Wutip's recovered very nicely. I didn't think it had much of a chance to run at category 5 again, but it very well might be making that run right now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 242100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
23//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 228 NM WEST OF NAVSTA
GUAM, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED (EIR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS
DEEPENING, INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION IN THE EYEWALL. THE EYE
IN EIR IMAGERY SUPPORTS THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A
241551Z 89GHZ AMSR-2 MICROWAVE IMAGE INDICATES A THICKENING, ROBUST
PRIMARY EYEWALL SURROUNDING A MICROWAVE EYE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS ASSESSED AT 110 KNOTS BASED ON THE INCREASINGLY SYMMETRIC
EYEWALL, AND FALLS BETWEEN DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 5.5 TO 6.0 (102-115 KNOTS). THE 231840Z AUTOMATED
DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATE OF T5.8 (110 KTS) SUPPORTS THE INITIAL
INTENSITY. UPPER-LEVEL CONDITIONS REMAIN FAVORABLE WITH LOW (5 TO 10
KNOTS) SOUTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), A ROBUST POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SST VALUES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 27C, ALTHOUGH OCEAN HEAT CONTENT (OHC) IS LOW. TY 02W
IS TRACKING WESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST, WHICH BUILT
INTO THE AREA IN THE PAST 6 HOURS AND PUSHED TY 02W WESTWARD.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 36, AN APPROACHING SHORTWAVE TROUGH TO THE
NORTHWEST WILL CAUSE A BREAK IN THE STR AND ALLOW TY 02W TO MOVE TO
THE NORTHWEST. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE TO DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT AND SLOW MOTION OVER LOW OHC WATERS. AFTER TAU 36, THE
SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN
EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO BUILD TO THE NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, 02W WILL TURN WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VWS INCREASES AND SST VALUES
DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 26C. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (OVER 30 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY, COLD AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A
NORTHEAST SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM
LEADING TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 96. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NAVGEM,
WHICH HAS CONSISTENTLY BEEN THE NORTHERN OUTLIER, AND THE MOST
RECENT RUN OF ECMWF WHICH PREDICTS A SHARPER NORTHWARD TRACK IN THE
NEAR-TERM, MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT. GIVEN RECENT
WESTWARD MOTION, THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS HEDGED SOUTHWEST OF THE
MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS. OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH
UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING
SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[euro6208]

Huge improvement.

[1900hurricane]

Yeah, that's a stout eyewall.

[Hayabusa]

UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 24 FEB 2019 Time : 223000 UTC
Lat : 13:18:36 N Lon : 140:33:35 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.3 / 940.1mb/122.2kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.3 6.5 6.5

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 12 km

Center Temp : -12.8C Cloud Region Temp : -75.9C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 123nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1009mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 15.6 degrees

****************************************************

[1900hurricane]

Pretty clear cut DT of 6.5 for 00Z.

[TorSkk]

I don't expect a significant intensity upgrade as they went with 6.0 as the FT number. Probably 115 or 120 for 00Z


A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 24/2350Z

C. 13.39N

D. 140.38E

E. THREE/HMWRI8

F. T6.0/6.0/S0.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY W
YIELDS AN E# OF 6.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.5. MET AND PT YIELD A 6.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
24/1920Z 13.12N 140.63E MMHS
24/2103Z 13.22N 140.55E WIND

[TorSkk]

02W WUTIP 190225 0000 13.4N 140.4E WPAC 110
941
Meanwhile, DT is now 7.0 as the first WMG pixels are starting to appear

[Hayabusa]

Back to 925 mb 100 kt

TY 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 00:50 UTC, 25 February 2019

<Analysis at 00 UTC, 25 February>
Scale -
Intensity Very strong
Center position N13°25' (13.4°)
E140°25' (140.4°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 925 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 50 m/s (100 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 70 m/s (140 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 130 km (70 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 26 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°00' (15.0°)
E139°55' (139.9°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 200 km (110 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 27 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E138°50' (138.8°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 260 km (140 NM)

<Forecast for 00 UTC, 28 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°00' (16.0°)
E135°00' (135.0°)
Direction and speed of movement W 15 km/h (9 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)

[1900hurricane]

[euro6208]

SATCON is at 128 knots.

[Hayabusa]

Revised to 115 kt

02W WUTIP
As of 00:00 UTC Feb 25, 2019:

Location: 13.4°N 140.4°E
Maximum Winds: 115 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 945 mb

[NotoSans]

A 22Z AMSU estimate was at 943mb/114kt so based on the intensification trend I would say 125kt is a suitable estimate for 00Z, also consistent with a Dvorak of T6.5/6.5.