WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[euro6208]

I reckon to think that this could be stronger. I'm thinking 145 to 155 knots. Its been intensifying ever since. Dvorak and ADT does poorly. Oh recon.

[TorSkk]

I reckon to think that this could be stronger. I'm thinking 145 to 155 knots. Its been intensifying ever since. Dvorak and ADT does poorly. Oh recon.

Not really intensifying. The cloud tops have warmed, clearly not a DT of 7.0 anymore

145 kn or higher might have been a good estimate two days ago when it came close to completing a CMG ring and reaching DT 7.5

[WAcyclone]

Cat 5 sunset

[Hayabusa]

JTWC expected Wutip would be classified as a cat 5 but they were just ahead in forecast

WDPN31 PGTW 250900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR SUPER TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
25//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 237 NM
NORTH OF ULITHI, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. STY 02W HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST 24
HOURS FROM 105 KNOTS TO THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED
ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS AN AXISYMMETRIC, ANNULAR-
LIKE CORE OF DEEP CONVECTION WITH A 25NM ROUND EYE, WHICH SUPPORTS
THE INITIAL POSITION WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. A 250530Z SSMI 85GHZ
MICROWAVE IMAGE SHOWS IMPROVED SPIRAL BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
SYMMETRIC EYEWALL. DESPITE THE MARGINALLY FAVORABLE SST VALUES (26
TO 27C) AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED
RADIAL OUTFLOW AND AN UNUSUALLY ROBUST POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO
A ZONAL JET STREAM TO THE NORTH (AS EVIDENCED BY THE TRANSVERSE
BANDING ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM IN THE ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY). THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED AT 140 KNOTS
BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF T7.0 FROM PGTW AND RJTD AS
WELL AS A 250343Z SATCON ESTIMATE OF 134 KNOTS. STY 02W IS TRACKING
NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE. THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS
OBVIOUSLY BEEN ADJUSTED BASED ON THE RECENT RAPID INTENSIFICATION
PHASE.
B. THROUGH TAU 24, STY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE DEEP-
LAYERED STR TOWARD A BREAK IN THE STR ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE
TROUGH PROPAGATING TO THE NORTH. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED DUE
TO AN IMMINENT EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE SUGGESTED IN THE 250419Z
AMSR2 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE AND UW-CIMSS M-PERC PRODUCT. AFTER TAU
24, THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN
EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO MID-LEVEL STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH.
CONSEQUENTLY, STY WUTIP WILL TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. MORE
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING IS EXPECTED BY TAU 36 AS VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) INCREASES AND SST VALUES DECREASE SLIGHTLY TO 25-26C.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY
IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE WEST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, INCREASING VWS (35-45 KTS) AND CONVERGENCE
ASSOCIATED WITH INCREASING UPPER-LEVEL (200MB) WESTERLIES OVER THE
SYSTEM AS WELL AS DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT ASSOCIATED WITH A NORTHEAST
SURGE EVENT WILL SERVE TO RAPIDLY WEAKEN THE SYSTEM LEADING TO
DISSIPATION BETWEEN TAU 96 AND TAU 120. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE
SOLE OUTLIER, JGSM, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT WITH A 150NM SPREAD IN SOLUTIONS AT TAU 120. OVERALL,
THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE (HIGH UNCERTAINTY) IN THE JTWC FORECAST
TRACK DUE TO THE RAPIDLY EVOLVING SYNOPTIC ENVIRONMENT.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

02-25-2019 8:10am UTC
http://agora.ex.nii.ac.jp/cgi-bin/iiif/ ... C8EA957885

[euro6208]

HWRF peaks this lose to 150 knots.

[NotoSans]

I agree with JTWC's reasoning - it's the impressive upper-level outflow that helps Wutip attain Category 5 status; looks like upwelling is taking place now as indicated by the waning deep convection, and I expect some rather significant weakening over the next day.

[euro6208]

-First February Cat 5 on record in the WPAC.

-First February Cat 5 on record in the Northern Hemisphere.

-Broke it's own record

Amazing.

[euro6208]

02W WUTIP 190225 1200 14.2N 140.1E WPAC 135 923

As usual, JTWC lags behind big time due to constraints and the dvorak as a whole. Catches up last minute. Dvorak decreases a bit. Numbers down.

We've seen this numerous times...Also a typhoon doesn't have to have a 7.0 to remain a 5. We seen this in other basins.

[euro6208]

02W WUTIP 190225 1200 14.2N 140.1E WPAC 130 929

Down further.

So sensitive.

[TyphoonNara]

02W WUTIP 190225 1200 14.2N 140.1E WPAC 135 923

As usual, JTWC lags behind big time due to constraints and the dvorak as a whole. Catches up last minute. Dvorak decreases a bit. Numbers down.

We've seen this numerous times...Also a typhoon doesn't have to have a 7.0 to remain a 5. We seen this in other basins.

It is true that Dvorak often underestimates intense storms. More often than not most T7.0 storms in WPac are probably over 140 knots if there are recon.

But I think JTWC downgrading Wutip to 130-135 is probably reasonable considering SATCON is also significantly down to 130 knots. SATCON is probably the best estimator for tropical cyclone strength without recon as it doesn't have a low bias like Dvorak (as proven by numerous Atlantic storms before).

I think Wutip is probably weaker than 130 knots now to be honest. However, Dvorak constraints are holding JTWC from weakening it rapidly.

[NotoSans]

02W WUTIP 190225 1200 14.2N 140.1E WPAC 135 923

As usual, JTWC lags behind big time due to constraints and the dvorak as a whole. Catches up last minute. Dvorak decreases a bit. Numbers down.

We've seen this numerous times...Also a typhoon doesn't have to have a 7.0 to remain a 5. We seen this in other basins.

This is not true. According to a study by Brown and Franklin based on the Atlantic recon samples, for weakening storms, the sole use of CI numbers will lead to overestimation in intensity. In such cases, it is optimal to determine intensity based on an average of FT and CI numbers.

[Hayabusa]

From JMA's data Wutip is the strongest pre-March WPAC storm and 2nd in behind (tied with 2018's March Jelawat) to 2015's March Maysak as the strongest pre-April WPAC storm on record.

[cycloneye]

Not weakening fast.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/StuOstro/status/1100134519846383618

[doomhaMwx]

 https://twitter.com/CIMSS_Satellite/status/1100069081120759811

[1900hurricane]

Getting closer to the belt of shear around 17ºN.

[Kingarabian]

Getting closer to the belt of shear around 17ºN.

[url]https://i.imgur.com/Ieygw3k.gif[url]

Looks like the CPAC MH's of last season. RI and peak right before the shear ax decapitates the system. Also looked like the shear provided ideal outflow conditions that really helps these type of systems rapidly intensify and reach higher peaks.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 28//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 297 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) INDICATES WUTIP HAS MAINTAINED A PARTIALLY CLOUD-FILLED
18 NM EYE, HOWEVER THERE HAS BEEN SOME WARMING IN THE CLOUD TOP
TEMPERATURES. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON
THE EYE FEATURE IN THE MSI LOOP AS WELL AS A MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN
A 252350Z METOP-B 89 GHZ IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 120 KNOTS IS
ASSESSED FROM THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATE OF T6.5 AND
TAKING INTO ACCOUNT THE 5.5 DATA-T VALUE, AS WELL AS AUTOMATED
OBJECTIVE FIXES FROM ADT AND SATCON. ALTHOUGH SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES (SSTS) OF 26 TO 27C AND LOW OCEAN HEAT CONTENT ARE
MARGINALLY FAVORABLE, THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED EXCELLENT POLEWARD
OUTFLOW. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) IS STILL 15 KNOTS OR LESS
CURRENTLY. THE CYCLONE IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD INTO A WEAKNESS IN THE
STEERING RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 12, TY 02W IS FORECAST TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD TO
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD SLOWLY UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE STR
TOWARD A BREAK ASSOCIATED WITH A SHORTWAVE TO THE NORTH THAT IS
PROPAGATING EASTWARD. GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED AS VWS BEGINS TO
INCREASE (15-20 KNOTS) ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERIES AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT COMMENCES, AS EVIDENCED IN THE CIMSS ANIMATED TOTAL
PRECIPITABLE WATER IMAGERY. AFTER TAU 24, SIGNIFICANTLY INCREASING
VWS SHOULD BEGIN A RAPID WEAKENING TREND. THE SHORTWAVE TROUGH IS
FORECAST TO SHIFT NORTHEAST ALLOWING AN EXTENSION OF THE LOW- TO
MID-LEVEL STR TO REBUILD TO THE NORTH AND ASSUME STEERING.
CONSEQUENTLY, TY WUTIP WILL TURN WESTWARD AND ACCELERATE. SSTS ARE
EXPECTED TO DECREASE ALONG THE TRACK, FURTHER ADDING TO THE WEAKENING
TREND. THE BAMS MODELS SUGGEST THAT IF WUTIP DOES NOT BEGIN WEAKENING
SIGNIFICANTLY BY TAU 24, A DEEPER LAYER STEERING FLOW MAY RESULT IN A
RECURVE SCENARIO. CURRENTLY, HOWEVER, NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
FAIR AGREEMENT WITH SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN TO THE
WEST LEADING TO FAIR CONFIDENCE IN THIS PORTION OF THE JTWC TRACK
FORECAST.
C. AFTER TAU 72, TY WUTIP WILL CONTINUE ITS RAPID WEAKENING TREND.
GUIDANCE INDICATES DISSIPATION WILL OCCUR BY TAU 96, IF NOT SOONER,
DUE TO THE INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT. DUE TO INCREASING
SPREAD IN THE GUIDANCE AT THE EXTENDED TAUS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN10 PGTW 260637

A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 26/0540Z

C. 15.17N

D. 139.88E

E. ONE/HMWRI8

F. T5.5/6.0/W1.5/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 07A/PBO IRREG EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET 5.5 PT 5.5 DBO DT

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MILAM