WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

Visible imagery of Wutip.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 260900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 29//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 304 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A PARTIALLY CLOUD FILLED EYE SURROUNDED BY DEEP
CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE AND
IS BASED ON THE EYE FEATURE SEEN IN A 260600Z HIMAWARI VISIBLE
SATELLITE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY (CI) ESTIMATE OF T6.0 (115 KNOTS) FROM PGTW,
AN ADT CI OF T6.1 (117 KNOTS) AND A SATCON ESTIMATE OF 116 KNOTS FROM
060415Z. TY 02W IS EXPERIENCING FAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (10 TO
15 KNOTS) AND HAS AN EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BUT LIMITED
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR
27 DEGREES CELSIUS. TY 02W IS DRIFTING NORTHWARD WHILE UNDER THE
INFLUENCE OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. THROUGH TAU 6, TY 20W WILL CONTINUE TO DRIFT NORTHWARD AND THEN
TURN WESTWARD AS THE STR TO THE EAST CONTINUES TO BUILD TOWARD THE
WEST. WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS THAT THE STR TO THE EAST IS INDEED
BUILDING WESTWARD. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WILL QUICKLY INCREASE AND
CAUSE TY 02W TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY. BEYOND TAU 12, TY 02W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AS THE STR BUILDS. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL
ALSO DECREASE ALLOWING TY 02W TO DROP TO AN INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 24. BY TAU 36, TY 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
EDGE OF THE STR. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT THAT TY 02W
WILL TRACK WESTWARD AND THEN NORTHWESTWARD. THE MODEL SPREAD IS
NEARLY 200 NM BY TAU 72. THEREFORE, THERE IS OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE
IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1100401650945220608




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1100403219686195200




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1100403873548775424

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 262100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 31//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 301 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT
CONTINUED TO RAPIDLY ERODE, ESPECIALLY ALONG THE NORTHERN
PERIPHERY. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 261748Z 37GHZ SSMI IMAGE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 95 KNOTS IS ASSESSED FROM THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF T5.0/90KTS FROM PGTW AND T5.5/102KTS FROM RJTD AND
REFLECTS THE DETERIORATED STATUS OF TY 02W. THE SYSTEM HAS REACHED
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE PREVAILING WESTERLIES AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ERODING CONVECTION. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN FAVORABLE NEAR 27
DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE
DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY WUTIP WILL REMAIN QS IN THE NEAR TERM THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE STR TO THE EAST RESUMES
STEERING. THIS STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTLY AGAINST THE UPPER LEVEL
WIND FLOW, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE IMPACT OF VWS TO OVER 30 KNOTS,
CAUSING A MORE RAPID DETERIORATION THAT WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY
TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL MODELS ARE IN OVERALL
AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT WITH INCREASING SPREAD TO OVER 250NM BY
TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN THE TC WILL EJECT FROM THE
COL AREA LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

TPPN10 PGTW 262107

A. TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP)

B. 26/2030Z

C. 15.90N

D. 140.42E

E. FIVE/HMWRI8

F. T4.5/5.0/W2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 46A/PBO EMBD CNTR/ANMTN. LLCC EMBEDDED IN MG YIELDS
A DT OF 4.0. MET AND PT YIELDS A 4.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
26/1748Z 15.55N 140.05E SSMI


DAVIS

[TyphoonNara]

looks like a mess right now.

[euro6208]

WDPN31 PGTW 270300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 32//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON (TY) 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 303 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS REMAINED QUASI-STATIONARY (QS) BUT
CONTINUED TO WEAKEN AS EVIDENCED BY EROSION ALONG THE NORTHERN FLANK
AND SLIGHT WARMING OF THE CENTRAL CONVECTION, ALBEIT MAINTAINING A
RAGGED 17-NM EYE. THE INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE
BASED ON THE RAGGED EYE WITH SLIGHT ADJUSTMENT FOR TILT BY LINING UP
WITH THE MICROWAVE EYE FEATURE IN THE 262059Z NEAR-SURFACE 37GHZ
SSMIS IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 90 KNOTS IS BASED ON AN OVERALL
ASSESSMENT OF AGENCY AND OBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES AND REFLECTS THE
WEAKENING TREND. THE SYSTEM HAS BECOME EXPOSED TO THE PREVAILING
WESTERLIES AND THE INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ASSOCIATED WITH THEM. HOWEVER, THE POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL REMAINS STRONG AND IS PROVIDING VENTILATION TO THE
ERODING CONVECTION. ADDITIONALLY, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES REMAIN
FAVORABLE AT 27 DEGREES CELSIUS. THE CYCLONE IS IN A COL AREA BETWEEN
THE DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A
SECONDARY STR TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TY WUTIP WILL REMAIN QS IN THE NEAR TERM THEN SLOWLY DRIFT
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD THEN NORTHWESTWARD AS A LOWER REFLECTION OF THE
STR TO THE EAST RESUMES STEERING. THIS STORM MOTION WILL BE DIRECTLY
OPPOSED TO THE UPPER LEVEL WIND FLOW, FURTHER EXACERBATING THE IMPACT
OF VWS (OVER 30 KNOTS), RESULTING IN A MORE RAPID DETERIORATION THAT
WILL LEAD TO DISSIPATION BY TAU 72, POSSIBLY SOONER. THE NUMERICAL
MODELS ARE IN OVERALL AGREEMENT WITH THIS TRACK BUT WITH INCREASING
SPREAD TO OVER 180NM BY TAU 72. THIS, PLUS THE UNCERTAINTY OF WHEN
THE TC WILL EJECT FROM THE COL AREA LEND AN OVERALL LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE JTWC FORECAST TRACK.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

Despite not visible from visible imagery, resent microwave scans reveal that Wutip still has an eye.

[euro6208]

Down to 80 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 270900
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR 33//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TYPHOON 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM WEST-NORTHWEST
OF NAVSTA GUAM, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON A LOW-LEVEL
MICROWAVE CENTER FEATURE EVIDENT IN 270558Z SSMIS 37 GHZ IMAGERY. THE
INTENSITY OF 80 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK AND
AUTOMATED SATELLITE INTENSITY CONSENSUS ESTIMATES FROM MULTIPLE
REPORTING AGENCIES. TY 02W HAS STEADILY WEAKENED OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS)
ASSOCIATED WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH SITUATED TO THE WEST OF THE
SYSTEM. THE CONVECTIVE PATTERN HAS BECOME INCREASINGLY DISORGANIZED
IN RESPONSE TO THE VWS, BUT POLEWARD UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW REMAINS
VIGOROUS. THE CYCLONE LIES IN A COL AREA BETWEEN THE DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECONDARY STR TO
THE WEST-SOUTHWEST. RECENT STORM MOTION INDICATES THAT AN ANTICIPATED
TURN TO THE WEST, FOLLOWING LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW, MAY HAVE
COMMENCED.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THE CURRENT FORECAST TRACK HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWING NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST
GUIDANCE. HOWEVER, THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS NOT CHANGED
SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. STEADY WEAKENING IS ANTICIPATED THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD
AS STRONG VERTICAL WIND SHEAR CONTINUES TO IMPACT THE SYSTEM, AND
FULL DISSIPATION BELOW THE WARNING THRESHOLD INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS
WILL LIKELY OCCUR BY TAU 72. AS TY 02W WEAKENS, THE CIRCULATION WILL
FOLLOW LOWER-LEVEL EASTERLY FLOW WESTWARD. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT REGARDING THE OVERALL FORECAST PHILOSOPHY, BUT
THERE IS SIGNIFICANT SPREAD ASSOCIATED WITH VARYING REPRESENTATIONS
OF THE ANTICIPATED WESTWARD TURN. ADDITIONALLY, TY 02W HAS CONTINUED
TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD THAN PREDICTED BY PREVIOUS FORECAST GUIDANCE,
ALTHOUGH A WESTWARD TURN DOES APPEAR TO BE IMMINENT AT THIS POINT.
GIVEN NOTED TRENDS IN THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN

[1900hurricane]

And so begins the collapse.

[wxman57]

I can't even locate a circulation any longer. I think a small swirl shoots off to the NE in the sat loop below.

[NotoSans]

ASCAT says 35 knots and JTWC and JMA are at 60 knots and 70 knots, respectively.

[wxman57]

ASCAT says 35 knots and JTWC and JMA are at 60 knots and 70 knots, respectively.

They must be looking at some other storm. This one is dead. Zero convection now.

[cycloneye]

Finnally JMA downgraded.

STS 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 18:40 UTC, 27 February 2019

<Analysis at 18 UTC, 27 February>
Scale -
Intensity -
Center position N16°35' (16.6°)
E138°10' (138.2°)
Direction and speed of movement WNW 15 km/h (8 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 25 m/s (50 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (70 kt)
≥ 30 kt wind area NE 280 km (150 NM)
SW 170 km (90 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N17°55' (17.9°)
E136°20' (136.3°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (11 kt)
Central pressure 996 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 20 m/s (40 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 30 m/s (60 kt)
Radius of probability circle 70 km (40 NM)

<Forecast for 18 UTC, 28 February>
Intensity -
TD
Center position of probability circle N18°50' (18.8°)
E135°10' (135.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NW 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 1008 hPa
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)

[euro6208]

Down to 40 knots.

WDPN31 PGTW 272100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP) WARNING NR
35//
RMKS/
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL STORM 02W (WUTIP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 454 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF ANDERSEN AFB, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 14
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTION HAS BEEN DECOUPLED FROM THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) AND RAPIDLY DISSIPATED. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE ON AN EXPOSED LLCC
IN THE IR LOOP. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS BASED ON A
PREVIOUS 271219Z ASCAT IMAGE THAT SHOWED A SWATH OF 35-39 KT WINDS
TO THE NORTHWEST, DUE TO THE RAPIDLY DECAYING CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BELOW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
T4.0 (65 KTS) AND T3.0 (45 KTS) FROM RJTD AND PGTW. ENVIRONMENTAL
ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TS 02W IS EXPERIENCING UNFAVORABLE (25 TO 40
KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) BUT STILL HAS STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW
DUE TO BEING SITUATED UNDER THE WESTERLY MIDLATITUDE JET. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ALSO REMAIN FAVORABLE, NEAR 27 DEGREES CELSIUS.
TS 02W IS TRACKING WEST-NORTHWESTWARD WHILE POSITIONED BETWEEN A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) LOCATED TO THE EAST-NORTHEAST AND A SECOND
STR LOCATED TO THE WEST-SOUTHWEST.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THERE IS NO CHANGE TO THE FORECAST PHILOSOPHY SINCE THE
PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE.
B. TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AS THE STR LOCATED TO THE
EAST-NORTHEAST CONTINUES TO BUILD WESTWARD. UNFAVORABLE VERTICAL WIND
SHEAR IS UNFAVORABLE FOR ANY FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. TS 02W WILL
CONTINUE TO RAPIDLY DECREASE IN INTENSITY, REACHING 25 KNOTS BY TAU
24 AND DISSIPATING BY TAU 36. DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN AGREEMENT
THAT TS 02W WILL TRACK NORTHWESTWARD AND SLOW IN FORWARD SPEED BY
TAU 36 AS LOW-LEVEL RIDGING BUILDS IN TO THE NORTHWEST. THE JTWC
FORECAST TRACK IS PLACED CLOSE TO THE MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS WITH
FAIR CONFIDENCE.//
NNNN

[TyphoonNara]

Wutip'e exposed LLCC.

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

Now a tropical depression.

02W WUTIP
As of 12:00 UTC Feb 28, 2019:

Location: 18.1°N 134.6°E
Maximum Winds: 30 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1004 mb