WPAC: WUTIP - Post-Tropical

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TyphoonNara
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#301 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:32 pm

Clearly T7.0 now.

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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#302 Postby euro6208 » Sun Feb 24, 2019 9:50 pm

Eye continues to warm. Probrably the best it’s ever looked. Can it be upgraded to the first Category 5 February typhoon on record?
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#303 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:17 pm

Impressive poleward outflow.

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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#304 Postby cycloneye » Sun Feb 24, 2019 10:46 pm

WOW.

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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#305 Postby Kingarabian » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:25 pm

Clearly a Cat.5 now.
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#306 Postby doomhaMwx » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:32 pm

By now, Wutip is supposedly on a weakening trend already. It has defied expectations.

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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#307 Postby TyphoonNara » Sun Feb 24, 2019 11:40 pm

Wutip is truly one of its kind. Not only is it a possible February Cat 5, it is also the first ever typhoon that can complete an EWC this month.
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#308 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:17 am

Wutip has already beaten its previous eye peak temp

2019FEB23 083000 5.9 946.5 112.4 5.9 6.4 6.8 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.95 -75.49 EYE 18 IR 14.9 11.74 -143.01 ARCHER HIM-8 14.0
2019FEB23 090000 6.0 944.2 115.0 6.0 6.6 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 8.66 -76.76 EYE 18 IR 14.9 11.78 -143.00 ARCHER HIM-8 14.1
2019FEB23 093000 6.1 942.0 117.4 6.1 6.7 7.1 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 15.88 -76.68 EYE 18 IR 14.9 11.84 -142.97 ARCHER HIM-8 14.1
2019FEB23 100000 6.3 937.5 122.2 6.3 6.9 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.10 -76.50 EYE 18 IR 14.9 11.90 -142.91 ARCHER HIM-8 14.2
2019FEB23 103000 6.5 933.0 127.0 6.5 6.9 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.32 -76.26 EYE 19 IR 14.9 11.93 -142.88 ARCHER HIM-8 14.2
2019FEB23 110000 6.6 930.4 129.6 6.6 6.9 7.0 1.3T/6hr OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.88 -76.18 EYE 20 IR 14.9 12.00 -142.83 ARCHER HIM-8 14.3
2019FEB23 113000 6.7 927.9 132.2 6.7 7.0 7.0 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.18 -75.96 EYE 19 IR 57.1 12.03 -142.80 ARCHER HIM-8 14.3
2019FEB23 120000 6.8 925.3 134.8 6.8 6.9 6.9 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 16.78 -75.17 EYE 19 IR 57.1 12.05 -142.72 ARCHER HIM-8 14.3
2019FEB23 123000 6.8 925.1 134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.24 -74.71 EYE 19 IR 57.1 12.11 -142.69 ARCHER HIM-8 14.4
2019FEB23 130000 6.8 925.1 134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.72 -74.28 EYE 19 IR 57.1 12.15 -142.64 ARCHER HIM-8 14.4
2019FEB23 133000 6.8 925.1 134.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.77 -73.76 EYE 19 IR 57.1 12.17 -142.59 ARCHER HIM-8 14.4
2019FEB23 140000 6.8 925.1 134.8 6.8 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.69 -73.52 EYE 16 IR 57.1 12.18 -142.54 ARCHER HIM-8 14.4


2019FEB25 001000 6.4 937.8 124.6 6.4 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 6.94 -74.35 EYE 21 IR 88.1 13.42 -140.40 ARCHER HIM-8 15.7
2019FEB25 004000 6.5 936.0 127.0 6.5 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 10.09 -74.58 EYE 26 IR 88.1 13.50 -140.34 ARCHER HIM-8 15.8
2019FEB25 011000 6.6 933.5 129.6 6.6 6.7 6.7 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 14.50 -73.89 EYE 26 IR 88.1 13.51 -140.32 ARCHER HIM-8 15.8
2019FEB25 014000 6.6 933.5 129.6 6.6 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 17.50 -73.92 EYE 28 IR 88.1 13.56 -140.27 ARCHER HIM-8 15.9
2019FEB25 021000 6.7 931.0 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.81 -74.03 EYE 27 IR 88.1 13.60 -140.25 ARCHER HIM-8 15.9
2019FEB25 023000 6.7 930.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.57 -74.03 EYE 28 IR 88.1 13.62 -140.24 ARCHER HIM-8 16.0
2019FEB25 030000 6.7 930.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.87 -74.09 EYE 29 IR 88.1 13.63 -140.22 ARCHER HIM-8 16.0
2019FEB25 034000 6.7 930.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.01 -73.99 EYE 28 IR 88.1 13.66 -140.20 ARCHER HIM-8 16.0
2019FEB25 041000 6.7 930.9 132.2 6.7 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.81 -73.89 EYE 28 IR 88.1 13.69 -140.18 ARCHER HIM-8 16.1
2019FEB25 043000 6.8 928.4 134.8 6.8 6.8 6.8 NO LIMIT OFF OFF OFF OFF 18.71 -73.72 EYE 27 IR 88.1 13.72 -140.16 ARCHER HIM-8 16.1





UW - CIMSS
ADVANCED DVORAK TECHNIQUE
ADT-Version 9.0
Tropical Cyclone Intensity Algorithm

----- Current Analysis -----
Date : 25 FEB 2019 Time : 043000 UTC
Lat : 13:43:12 N Lon : 140:09:36 E

CI# /Pressure/ Vmax
6.8 / 928.4mb/134.8kt

Final T# Adj T# Raw T#
6.8 6.8 6.8

Estimated radius of max. wind based on IR : 27 km

Center Temp : +18.7C Cloud Region Temp : -73.7C

Scene Type : EYE

Subtropical Adjustment : OFF

Extratropical Adjustment : OFF

Positioning Method : ARCHER POSITIONING

Ocean Basin : WEST PACIFIC
Dvorak CI > MSLP Conversion Used : CKZ Method

Tno/CI Rules : Constraint Limits : NO LIMIT
Weakening Flag : OFF
Rapid Dissipation Flag : OFF

C/K/Z MSLP Estimate Inputs :
- Average 34 knot radii : 130nmi
- Environmental MSLP : 1010mb

Satellite Name : HIM-8
Satellite Viewing Angle : 16.1 degrees

****************************************************
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#309 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:23 am

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Wow!
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#310 Postby doomhaMwx » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:40 am

CURRENT ESTIMATE
Date (mmddhhmm): 02250343
SATCON: MSLP = 929 hPa MSW = 134 knots
SATCON Member Consensus: 131.0 knots
Pressure -> Wind Using SATCON MSLP: 120 knots
Distance to Outer Closed Isobar Used is 185 nm
Eye Size Correction Used is -1.3 knots Source: IR
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#311 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 12:41 am

ADT and SATCON at a solid 135 knots. Both are likely underestimating this though. This is a Category 5.
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#312 Postby NotoSans » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:06 am

CI7.0 from JMA
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#313 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:08 am

Clear T. 7.0
I'm impressed given that it's February.
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#314 Postby NotoSans » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:21 am

02W WUTIP 190225 0600 13.9N 140.1E WPAC 140 918
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#315 Postby euro6208 » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:29 am

This is just historic. First ever Category 5 in the month of February on record! and the earliest Category 5 before March since STY Ophelia in January 1958!

Every month of the year has now seen a Category 5 in the WPAC!
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#316 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Feb 25, 2019 1:42 am

Wutip now tied with 2018's March Jelawat (915 mb). Wutip is also just 5 mb shy of 2015's March Maysak (910 mb), the strongest pre-April WPAC storm.


I love this "weak" El Niño

TY 1902 (Wutip)
Issued at 06:45 UTC, 25 February 2019

<Analysis at 06 UTC, 25 February>
Scale -
Intensity Violent
Center position N13°50' (13.8°)
E140°10' (140.2°)
Direction and speed of movement NNW Slow
Central pressure 915 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 55 m/s (105 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 75 m/s (150 kt)
≥ 50 kt wind area ALL 150 km (80 NM)
≥ 30 kt wind area N 500 km (270 NM)
S 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 26 February>
Intensity Very strong
Center position of probability circle N15°25' (15.4°)
E140°00' (140.0°)
Direction and speed of movement N Slow
Central pressure 940 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 45 m/s (90 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 65 m/s (130 kt)
Radius of probability circle 90 km (50 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 220 km (120 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 27 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N15°35' (15.6°)
E138°30' (138.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W Slow
Central pressure 965 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 35 m/s (70 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 50 m/s (100 kt)
Radius of probability circle 180 km (95 NM)
Storm warning area ALL 280 km (150 NM)

<Forecast for 06 UTC, 28 February>
Intensity -
Center position of probability circle N16°25' (16.4°)
E134°30' (134.5°)
Direction and speed of movement W 20 km/h (10 kt)
Central pressure 990 hPa
Maximum wind speed near center 23 m/s (45 kt)
Maximum wind gust speed 35 m/s (65 kt)
Radius of probability circle 240 km (130 NM)
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ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#317 Postby Dylan » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:10 am

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1099929028289384448


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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#318 Postby mrbagyo » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:27 am

Nearing the 20°C eye temp threshold.
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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#319 Postby TyphoonNara » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:55 am

What an impressive structure as shown from the microwave scan. This is unbelievable.

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Re: WPAC: WUTIP - Typhoon

#320 Postby Hayabusa » Mon Feb 25, 2019 2:58 am

Image
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
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