SIO: HALEH - Post-Tropical

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/MikeAdcockWx/status/1102391409779208192

[TyphoonNara]

Now a Cat 3.

17S HALEH
As of 06:00 UTC Mar 04, 2019:

Location: 18.0°S 73.0°E
Maximum Winds: 105 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 mb

[TyphoonNara]

TPXS10 PGTW 040857

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH)

B. 04/0830Z

C. 18.32S

D. 72.73E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: S0.0/03HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI

H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. WMG EYE SURROUNDED BY MG
YIELDS AN E# OF 4.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR LG, TO YIELD
A DT OF 5.0. THE MET AGREES AND THE PT YIELDS A 5.5. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
04/0426Z 17.73S 73.12E GPMI


MILAM

[TyphoonNara]

JTWC is expecting a 120 knot peak.

[TyphoonNara]

A slightly ragged WMG eye in MG. If B or even W forms a ring around the CDO, we may see a Cat 4 or even 5 here.

[cycloneye]

 https://twitter.com/jnmet/status/1102527991324778496

[TorSkk]

Haleh is the sixth Intense Tropical Cyclone (CAT3+ US) this season, which means the current season has tied the record for most ITCs set in 2006-07 season

[TorSkk]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 13/10/20182019

1.A INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/04 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 18.6 S / 72.7 E
(EIGHTEEN DECIMAL SIX DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL SEVEN DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 5.5/5.5/D 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 948 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 90 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 28 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 280 SE: 430 SW: 430 NW: 190
34 KT NE: 170 SE: 280 SW: 280 NW: 130
48 KT NE: 90 SE: 110 SW: 90 NW: 90
64 KT NE: 50 SE: 50 SW: 50 NW: 50

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1001 HPA / 400 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/05 00 UTC: 19.4 S / 72.1 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/05 12 UTC: 20.3 S / 71.3 E, VENT MAX= 095 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 21.3 S / 70.2 E, VENT MAX= 090 KT, INTENSE TROPICAL
CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 22.8 S / 68.7 E, VENT MAX= 085 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 23.9 S / 67.6 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
72H: 2019/03/07 12 UTC: 25.1 S / 67.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 28.2 S / 66.0 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
120H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 32.4 S / 65.8 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=CI=5.5

DURING THE PAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE CLOUD PATTERN REMAINED UNCHANGED
ALTHOUGH IT SHOWED WEAKNESS IN THE SOUTHEAST TO SOUTH SECTOR. THIS
WEAKNESS INDUCES A DVORAK ANALYSIS LIMITING THE ABOVE TO 5.5. THE
MICROWAVE DATA OF 1130UTC SUGGEST THAT THIS WEAKNESS IS ONLY
TEMPORARY AND THE INTENSE TROPICAL CYCLONE HALEH IS EXPECTED TO
CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION.

THE TRACK FORECAST EVOLVES LITTLE TO SHORT TERM, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF
A TRACK SLIGHTLY FURTHER TO THE WEST THAN INITIALLY UNDER THE EFFECT OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE COMING FROM THE SOUTHWEST. WITH THE PASSAGE OF
THE TROUGH FAR TO THE SOUTH, THIS RIDGE WILL WEAKEN AGAIN AND SHIFT TO
THE EAST, FAVOURING A MORE SOUTHERLY TRACK FROM THURSDAY/FRIDAY. THEN
THE TRACK IS EXPECTED TO ACCELERATE.

THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY EXPERIENCING FAVOURABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS TO CONTINUE ITS SLOW INTENSIFICATION OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS.
VERTICAL WINDSHEAR IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN LOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH THAT CONTINUES TO PROVIDE EXCELLENT UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE
THROUGH A GOOD POLAR EVACUATION CHANNEL. FROM WEDNESDAY, HALEH
WILL BE LOCATED UNDER A MODERATE VERTICAL WINDSHEAR FROM THE
NORTHWEST. THE SYSTEM SHOULD THEN EXPERIENCE A SLOW WEAKENING. FROM
THURSDAY, THE WEAKENING SHOULD BECOME MORE SIGNIFICANT WITH
INCREASING WINDSHEAR AND INSUFFICIENT OCEAN ENERGY CONTENT.

[TorSkk]

RSMC / TROPICAL CYCLONE CENTER / LA REUNION
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST WARNING (SOUTH-WEST INDIAN OCEAN)

0.A WARNING NUMBER: 17/10/20182019

1.A TROPICAL CYCLONE 10 (HALEH)

2.A POSITION 2019/03/05 AT 1200 UTC:
WITHIN 20 NM RADIUS OF POINT 21.1 S / 72.0 E
(TWENTY ONE DECIMAL ONE DEGREES SOUTH AND
SEVENTY TWO DECIMAL ZERO DEGREES EAST)
MOVEMENT: SOUTH-SOUTH-WEST 7 KT

3.A DVORAK ANALYSIS: 4.5/5.0/W 1.0/12 H

4.A CENTRAL PRESSURE: 960 HPA

5.A MAX AVERAGE WIND SPEED (10 MN): 80 KT
RADIUS OF MAXIMUM WINDS (RMW): 33 KM

6.A EXTENSION OF WIND BY QUADRANTS (KM):
28 KT NE: 220 SE: 220 SW: 460 NW: 220
34 KT NE: 190 SE: 190 SW: 320 NW: 190
48 KT NE: 110 SE: 110 SW: 140 NW: 110
64 KT NE: 70 SE: 70 SW: 80 NW: 70

7.A FIRST CLOSED ISOBAR (PRESSURE / AVERAGE DIAM): 1007 HPA / 1300 KM

8.A VERTICAL EXTENSION OF CYCLONE CIRCULATION: DEEP

1.B FORECASTS:
12H: 2019/03/06 00 UTC: 22.4 S / 70.5 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
24H: 2019/03/06 12 UTC: 23.8 S / 69.1 E, VENT MAX= 080 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
36H: 2019/03/07 00 UTC: 25.2 S / 67.9 E, VENT MAX= 075 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
48H: 2019/03/07 12 UTC: 27.0 S / 66.9 E, VENT MAX= 065 KT, TROPICAL CYCLONE
60H: 2019/03/08 00 UTC: 29.1 S / 66.1 E, VENT MAX= 060 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM
72H: 2019/03/08 12 UTC: 31.6 S / 65.4 E, VENT MAX= 050 KT, SEVERE TROPICAL STORM

2.B LONGER-RANGE OUTLOOK:
96H: 2019/03/09 12 UTC: 37.6 S / 66.4 E, VENT MAX= 045 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION
120H: 2019/03/10 12 UTC: 45.3 S / 77.8 E, VENT MAX= 040 KT, POST-TROPICAL
DEPRESSION

2.C ADDITIONAL INFORMATION:
T=4.5+ CI=5.0+

OVER THE LAST 6 HOURS, THE EYE KEPT ON GRADUALLY DISAPPEARING WITHIN A
WIDE CDO, WHOSE CLOUD TOPS REMAINED RATHER COLD. THE VIS AND WV
IMAGERY SHOW DRY AIR THAT SEEMS TO CREEP CLOSER TO THE TC IN THE
EASTERN SEMI-CIRCLE. THIS DRY AIR INTAKE PARTLY EXPLAINS THE CURRENT
WEAKENING TREND. HOWEVER, THE 1116Z SSMIS MW IMAGE SHOWS A STILL SOLID
INNER RING OF CONVECTION, WHICH GIVES CREDIBILITY TO THE STATIONARY
INTENSITY IN THE FORECAST FOR THE NEXT 24H.

THE TRACK PHILOSOPHY DOES NOT CHANGE WITH A RATHER MERIDIAN TRACK.
THE TRACK ALREADY BEGAN TO BEND SOUTHWESTWARD, STEERED BY THE
WESTWARD SHIFT OF A MID-LEVEL RIDGE THAT CRAWLS ITS WAY SOUTH OF THE
SYSTEM. FROM WEDNESDAY, THE TRACK SHOULD BEND AGAIN
SOUTHSOUTHWESTWARD WITH THE WEAKENING AND THE SHIFT OF THIS RIDGE.
FROM SATURDAY, THE SYSTEM IS FORECASTED TO EVACUATE TOWARD THE
SOUTHEAST AHEAD A DEEP MID-LATITUDES TROUGH AND ON THE
SOUTH-WESTERN SIDE OF THE NEAR-EQUATORIAL UPPER TROUGH. THE
DISPERSION OF THE EURO ENSEMBLE REMAINS MODERATE ALONG THIS TRACK.

TODAY, THE UPPER TROUGH IN THE SOUTH-WEST CONTINUES TO PROVIDE A GOOD
UPPER DIVERGENCE THROUGH A WELL-DEFINED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL,
WHICH SHOULD ALLOW HALEH TO MAINTAIN ITS INTENSITY ABOVE WATERS WITH
A FAVORABLE OCEANIC HEAT POTENTIAL. WEDNESDAY, THE ARRIVAL OF A NEW
UPPER TROUGH SHOULD STRENGTHEN THE POLEWARD DIVERGENCE AGAIN BUT
ALSO CREATE EVENTUALLY A MODERATE NORTH-WESTERLY VERTICAL
WINDSHEAR. AFTER REMAINING STATIONARY TONIGHT AND WEDNESDAY
MORNING, HALEH'S INTENSITY IS THEN EXPECTED TO DECREASE AGAIN.
THURSDAY, THE NORTH-WESTERLY SHEAR SHOULD STRENGTHEN AND DRIVE A
QUICKER WEAKENING. FROM SATURDAY, OVER WATERS WITH AN INSUFFICIENT
HEAT POTENTIAL, THE SYSTEM SHOULD LOSE ITS PURELY TROPICAL
CHARACTERISTICS.

[TorSkk]

[TyphoonNara]

Weakened to 85 knots.

17S HALEH
As of 00:00 UTC Mar 06, 2019:

Location: 22.3°S 71.0°E
Maximum Winds: 85 kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 mb

[TyphoonNara]

[TyphoonNara]

TPXS10 PGTW 060353

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 17S (HALEH)

B. 05/0300Z

C. 22.52S

D. 70.45E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T5.0/5.0/W0.5/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. LG EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET/PT AGREE. DBO DT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE


MARTIN