WPAC: Invest 99W

[Hayabusa]

ABPW10 PGTW 020600
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND
/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS/020600Z-030600ZAPR2019//
RMKS/
1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:
(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 3.3N 153.0E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 4.2N 155.2E, APPROXIMATELY 275
NM SOUTHEAST OF CHUUK ISLAND. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY AND A 012330Z PARTIAL ASCAT PASS DEPICT AN ILL-DEFINED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH LITTLE ASSOCIATED CONVECTION. THE ENVIRONMENT
IS MARGINALLY FAVORABLE FOR TROPICAL DEVELOPMENT, WITH STRONG UPPER
LEVEL DIVERGENCE AND WARM (28-30C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES OFFSET
BY HIGH (25-30KTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR THAT DECREASES QUICKLY TO THE
NORTH. THERE IS SOME DISAGREEMENT ON MODEL SOLUTIONS, WITH GFS,
NAVGEM, AND UKMO FAVORING A NORTHWESTERN TRACK TOWARDS GUAM, WHILE
THE ECMWF AND JGSM SHOW NO SIGNIFICANT DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS REMAINS LOW.
(2) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.
2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):
A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.
B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

GFS again with its shenanigans

[euro6208]

THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 99W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED
NEAR 4.2N 155.2E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE
DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.