BoB: FANI - Post-Tropical

[doomhaMwx]

91B INVEST 190424 0000 2.1N 91.5E IO 15 0

[doomhaMwx]

The global models develop this into a TC as it slowly moves NW during the next few days.

[doomhaMwx]

So close to the equator. 06Z and 12Z NRL positions have it at 0.6N and 0.8N respectively!


91B INVEST 190424 0600 .6N 89.2E IO 15 1008
91B INVEST 190424 1200 .8N 88.6E IO 15 1006

[doomhaMwx]

REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 91B) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 2.8N 90.2E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 3.0N 89.3E, APPROXIMATELY 610 NM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF COLOMBO. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 260323Z MHS 89GHZ MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICT PERSISTENT, FRAGMENTED BANDING SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING INTO A BROAD CENTER.
HOWEVER, A 260324Z ASCAT PASS SHOWS 25-30 KNOT WINDS OVER THE SOUTH QUADRANT AND 20-25 KNOT WINDS ELSEWHERE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS SHOWS 91B BORDERING AN AREA OF MODERATE TO HIGH (15 TO 25 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR WITH GOOD POLEWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-31C) SUPPORT FUTURE DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT, MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRAJECTORY OVER THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS WITH SLOW DEVELOPMENT. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 25 TO 30 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1000 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH.

[wxman57]

Ensembles and operational runs of the GFS & EC now keep the center well east of India through 7 days.

[doomhaMwx]

Now Tropical Storm 01B by JTWC. Will be named "Fani" once IMD follows suit.

[Hayabusa]

From India to Myanmar, hmmm I wonder where would this TC strike a land if ever.

[doomhaMwx]

We have Cyclonic Storm "Fani" (pronounced as 'Foni' according to the IMD)...

Sub: Cyclonic Storm ‘FANI’ over southeast Bay of Bengal & adjoining East Equatorial Indian
Ocean
The deep depression over East Equatorial Indian Ocean & adjoining southeast Bay of Bengal
intensified into Cyclonic Storm ‘FANI’ (pronounced as ‘FONI’) over southeast Bay of Bengal &
adjoining East Equatorial Indian Ocean and lay centred at 1130 hrs IST of 27
th April, 2019 near latitude 5.2°N and longitude 88.5°E, about 880 km east-southeast of Trincomalee (Sri Lanka), 1250
km southeast of Chennai (Tamil Nadu) and 1460 km south-southeast of Machilipatnam (Andhra
Pradesh). It is very likely to intensify into a Severe Cyclonic Storm during next 24 hours.

http://www.rsmcnewdelhi.imd.gov.in/index.php

[Tailspin]

Ens tracks are spread, none the less maybe a powerful tc threat upstream.

[Sciencerocks]

WTIO31 PGTW 280300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 005//
RMKS/
1. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI) WARNING NR 005
01 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONE IN NORTHIO
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
---
WARNING POSITION:
280000Z --- NEAR 7.1N 88.1E
MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 295 DEGREES AT 08 KTS
POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM
POSITION BASED ON CENTER LOCATED BY SATELLITE
PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION:
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 050 KT, GUSTS 065 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
015 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 095 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
085 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
REPEAT POSIT: 7.1N 88.1E
---
FORECASTS:
12 HRS, VALID AT:
281200Z --- 8.2N 87.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 055 KT, GUSTS 070 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 000 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
080 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
090 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
24 HRS, VALID AT:
290000Z --- 9.2N 86.6E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 060 KT, GUSTS 075 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 090 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
100 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 320 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
36 HRS, VALID AT:
291200Z --- 10.2N 85.8E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
000 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
120 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
070 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 335 DEG/ 06 KTS
---
EXTENDED OUTLOOK:
48 HRS, VALID AT:
300000Z --- 11.2N 85.3E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 080 KT, GUSTS 100 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 010 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
010 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
000 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
010 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 04 KTS
---
72 HRS, VALID AT:
010000Z --- 12.7N 84.4E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 090 KT, GUSTS 110 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 020 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 120 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
150 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 345 DEG/ 02 KTS
---
LONG RANGE OUTLOOK:
---
96 HRS, VALID AT:
020000Z --- 13.5N 84.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 105 KT, GUSTS 130 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
030 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 140 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
140 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
100 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 025 DEG/ 05 KTS
---
120 HRS, VALID AT:
030000Z --- 15.4N 85.2E
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT
WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY
RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 030 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
030 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
060 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT
160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT
130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT
090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT
---
REMARKS:
280300Z POSITION NEAR 7.4N 87.9E.
TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 01B (FANI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 483 NM EAST
OF COLOMBO, SRI LANKA, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THE STORM HAS SLIGHTLY CONSOLIDATED AS RAIN BANDS, ALBEIT STILL
FRAGMENTED, WRAPPED TIGHTER INTO A FLARING CENTRAL CONVECTION THAT
CONTINUES TO OBSCURE THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION (LLC). THE INITIAL
POSITION IS PLACED WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE BASED ON DEFINED LLC IN THE
272359Z 37GHZ CORIOLIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 50
KNOTS IS AVERAGED FROM THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T3.0/45KTS AND
T3.5/55KTS FROM PGTW AND KNES, RESPECTIVELY, AND REFLECTS THE SLIGHT
IMPROVEMENT. THE SYSTEM IS IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WITH LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS), EXCELLENT POLEWARD AND WESTWARD OUTFLOW,
AND WARM (31C) SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE
NORTHEAST AND WILL BE ITS PRIMARY STEERING MECHANISM THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST. AFTER TAU 72, IT WILL BEGIN TO ROUND THE STR AXIS AND TURN
NORTHEASTWARD. THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT WILL PREVAIL FOR THE NEXT
FOUR DAYS AND PROMOTE A STEADY, POSSIBLY RAPID, INTENSIFICATION TO A
PEAK OF 105 KNOTS BY TAU 96. AFTERWARD, INCREASING VWS WILL TRIGGER A
WEAKENING PHASE. THE AVAILABLE NUMERICAL MODELS SPREAD OUT TO OVER
220 NM AT TAU 72 BUT ARE IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE TRACK.
HOWEVER, GIVEN THE FORMATIVE NATURE OF THE CYCLONE AND THE
SIGNIFICANT SPREAD IN THE MODELS, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE JTWC
TRACK FORECAST. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 280000Z IS 17
FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 280900Z, 281500Z, 282100Z AND 290300Z.//
NNNN

[doomhaMwx]

JTWC forecast peak has increased to 115kts. IMD is now forecasting an Extremely Severe Cyclonic Storm as well (the 2nd highest on their scale).

[doomhaMwx]

Northern Andhra Pradesh and Odisha looking more likely to get impacted later this week.

[cycloneye]

Hopefully,it avoids Bangladesh.

[TorSkk]

Looking like a mess

[TorSkk]

MPI is certainly high..

[Tailspin]

looks pretty good (organising) and intensifying.

[shah83]

Ok, the 0429 02:45 image looks like it's all systems go.

I'm definitely concerned that this is going to be on the Sidr, Nargis, '91 cyclone level rather than Phailin or Hudhud level.

[TorSkk]

A. 01B (FANI)

B. 29/1430Z

C. 10.7N

D. 87.2E

E. THREE/MET-8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.5/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...8/10 W BANDING FOR A DT=4.0. MET AND PT AGREE. FT IS BASED
ON DT. EYE MAY BE EMERGING IN LATEST IMAGERY.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL

[TorSkk]

Likely up to 65 kn for 18Z

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE 01B (FANI)

B. 29/1730Z

C. 11.10N

D. 87.12E

E. THREE/MET8

F. T4.0/4.0/D1.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS

G. IR/EIR

H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 1.0 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR W TO
YIELD A DT OF 4.5. MET/PT 4.0. DBO PT.

I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
29/1206Z 10.20N 86.80E GPMI

[Tailspin]

[EGIONAL SPECIALISED METEOROLOGICAL CENTRE-TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY BULLETIN NO. 23
FROM: RSMC –TROPICAL CYCLONES, NEW DELHI
TO: STORM WARNING CENTRE, NAYPYI TAW (MYANMAR)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, BANGKOK (THAILAND)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, COLOMBO (SRILANKA)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, DHAKA (BANGLADESH)
STORM WARNING CENTRE, KARACHI (PAKISTAN)
METEOROLOGICAL OFFICE, MALE (MALDIVES)
OMAN METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT, MUSCAT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
YEMEN METEOROLOGICAL SERVICES, REPUBLIC OF YEMEN (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
NATIONAL CENTRE FOR METEOROLOGY, UAE (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
PRESIDENCY OF METEOROLOGY AND ENVIRONMENT, SAUDI ARABIA (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
IRAN METEOROLOGICAL ORGANISATION, (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
QATAR METEOROLOGICAL DEPARTMENT (THROUGH RTH JEDDAH)
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVISORY NO. 23 FOR NORTH INDIAN OCEAN (THE BAY OF BENGAL AND
ARABIAN SEA) VALID FOR NEXT 120 HOURS ISSUED AT 0300 UTC OF 30.04.2019 BASED ON
0000 UTC OF 30.04.2019.
THE SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM ‘FANI’ (PRONOUNCED AS ‘FONI’) OVER SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING
SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL MOVED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARDS WITH A SPEED OF ABOUT 16
KMPH IN LAST SIX HOURS, INTENSIFIED INTO A VERY SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM AND LAY
CENTRED AT 0000 UTC OF 30TH APRIL, 2019 NEAR LATITUDE 11.7°N AND LONGITUDE 86.5°E OVER
SOUTHEAST & ADJOINING SOUTHWEST BAY OF BENGAL, ABOUT 670 KM EAST-NORTHEAST OF
TRINCOMALEE (43418), 690 KM EAST-SOUTHEAST OF CHENNAI (43278) AND 760 KM SOUTHEAST
OF MACHILIPATNAM (43185). IT IS VERY LIKELY TO INTENSIFY FURTHER INTO AN EXTREMELY
SEVERE CYCLONIC STORM DURING NEXT 36 HOURS. IT IS VERY LIKELY TO MOVE
NORTHWESTWARDS TILL 01ST MAY EVENI/