WPAC: Ex TD 95W

[Nancy Smar]

95W.INVEST.15kts.1004mb.2.5N.150.8E

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

GFS and ECMWF both have a weak disturbance developing southeast of
the region and moving west over the next few days south of the
Marianas. But whereas the ECMWF keeps all the weather south of 10N
during the week, the GFS brings a good batch of showers into the
Marianas the second half of the week. This seems speculative at this
point, and is adequately covered by the isolated thunderstorms
already in the forecast during that time. So for now, will stay
with the forecast as is.

[Hayabusa]

Another invest where the models aren't excited

[euro6208]

GFS has some slight intensification, 999mb, before weakening. EURO has nothing.

[euro6208]

95W INVEST 190625 0000 3.9N 148.2E WPAC 15 1010

[euro6208]

EURO slightly deepens it but it's future remains bleak.

[Hayabusa]

At least the ensembles of 95W are here to entertain even though they aren't much helpful like the debacle of 94W

[Hayabusa]

I can't tell if it's 95W itself or a new invest the GFS wants to develop something over the South China Sea.

[dexterlabio]

I can't tell if it's 95W itself or a new invest the GFS wants to develop something over the South China Sea.

I think that's a separate entity from 95W, because the latter has been shown dissipating as it tracks north. That tells me just how unfavorable that front in North Asia is when it comes to tropical cyclone development in WPAC.

On another note, I'm really skeptical about that SCS system the GFS has been trying to develop for many days now.

[euro6208]

AN AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) HAS PERSISTED NEAR 9.8N
137.4E, APPROXIMATELY 222 NM NORTHEAST OF PALAU. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A BROAD AREA OF DISORGANIZED
CONVECTION. A PARTIAL 270016Z METOP-A ASCAT PASS SHOWS WEAK TURNING
WITH 10KTS TO THE SOUTH AND 15KT WINDS TO THE NORTH. 95W IS UNDER
WEAK UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND UNFAVORABLE WIND SHEAR (20-25 KTS). SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE (28-30 C) FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL
MODELS SHOW 95W INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING EAST OF THE
PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS AND REMAINING WEAK AS IT TRACKS
NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 10 TO 15
KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.
THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS LOW.

[euro6208]

[Hayabusa]

TROPICAL DEPRESSION 1006 HPA AT 11N 136E NW SLOWLY.

Will models struggle with this one too?

[Nancy Smar]

ABPW10 PGTW 280100

MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//

SUBJ/SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL WEATHER ADVISORY FOR THE WESTERN AND

/SOUTH PACIFIC OCEANS REISSUED/280100Z-280600ZJUN2019//

RMKS/

1. WESTERN NORTH PACIFIC AREA (180 TO MALAY PENINSULA):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY:

(1) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 94W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 28.3N 130.3E, HAS DISSIPATED AND IS NO LONGER SUSPECT FOR THE

DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IN THE NEXT 24 HOURS.

(2) THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED

NEAR 9.8N 137.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.2N 133.5E, APPROXIMATELY

745 NM EAST OF MANILA, THE PHILIPPINES. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL

SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 272054Z SSMIS 91GHZ PASS SHOW A BROAD AREA

OF INCREASINGLY ORGANIZED CONVECTION OBSCURING A CONSOLIDATING LOW

LEVEL CIRCULATION. UPPER LEVEL DIVERGENCE IS GOOD AND VERTICAL WIND

SHEAR IS LOW TO MODERATE (10-20 KTS). SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (30-

31 C) ARE ALSO CONDUCIVE FOR DEVELOPMENT. GLOBAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD

AGREEMENT, SHOWING 95W INTENSIFYING AND CONSOLIDATING EAST OF THE

PHILIPPINES OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS BEFORE WEAKENING AS IT TRACKS

NORTHWARD. MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 15 TO 20

KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1006 MB.

THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE

WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS UPGRADED TO MEDIUM.

(3) NO OTHER SUSPECT AREAS.

2. SOUTH PACIFIC AREA (WEST COAST OF SOUTH AMERICA TO 135 EAST):

A. TROPICAL CYCLONE SUMMARY: NONE.

B. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE SUMMARY: NONE.

3. JUSTIFICATION FOR REISSUE: REMOVED AREA IN PARA 1.B.(1), UPGRADED

AREA IN PARA 1.B.(2) TO MEDIUM.//

NNNN

[euro6208]

WTPN21 PGTW 280430
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT (INVEST 95W)//
RMKS/
1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE WITHIN
150 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 11.5N 134.4E TO 15.8N 130.4E
WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 18 TO 23 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 280000Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 12.3N 134.1E. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS.
2. REMARKS:
THE AREA OF CONVECTION (INVEST 95W) PREVIOUSLY LOCATED NEAR 9.8N
137.4E, IS NOW LOCATED NEAR 12.3N 134.1E, APPROXIMATELY 288 NM NORTH
OF PALAU. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL
DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH BUILDING DEEP
CONVECTION. HOWEVER, THE LLCC HAS BECOME EXPOSED OVER THE LAST FEW
HOURS DUE TO THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE (15-20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). A PAIR OF RECENT ASCAT PASSES REVEALS A
WELL-DEFINED, 20 KNOT SURFACE CIRCULATION, WITH ISOLATED 25 KNOT
WINDS UNDERNEATH DEEP CONVECTION. A 280301Z GMI 89GHZ MICROWAVE
IMAGE SHOWS DISORGANIZED FRAGMENTED CONVECTION ON THE WEST SIDE. 95W
IS IN AN AREA OF FAVORABLE UPPER LEVEL OUTFLOW AND SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT (30-31C). BASED ON THE
ASCAT DATA, THE CURRENT LLCC COULD DEVELOP INTO A WARNED TROPICAL
CYCLONE QUICKLY IF THE VWS RELAXES. INITIAL MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES
THERE IS A BRIEF WINDOW FOR DEVELOPMENT OF A WEAK CIRCULATION,
BEFORE DEGRADING INTO A TROUGH OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MAXIMUM
SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT 18 TO 23 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA
LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR 1003 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR
THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS IS HIGH.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY
290430Z.
//
NNNN

[euro6208]

[euro6208]

TXPQ29 KNES 280904
TCSWNP

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (95W)

B. 28/0830Z

C. 13.0N

D. 133.9E

E. THREE/HIMAWARI-8

F. T1.0/1.0/D1.0/24HRS

G. IR/EIR/VIS

H. REMARKS...THIS INTENSITY ESTIMATE WAS DERIVED USING 4 KM IR
DATA. SHEARED PATTERN WITH CIRCULARLY DEFINED CLOUD LINES AND A CENTER
LESS THAN 75 NM FROM A SMALL AREA OF FLARING CONVECTION YIELDS A DT OF
1.0. MET=1.0 AND PT=1.0. FT IS BASED ON DT.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...KIM

[Hayabusa]

HWRF forecasting 95W to be a typhoon, take it with a grain of salt after the debacle of its 94W forecasts

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 282100
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 01//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 373 NM
NORTH-NORTHWEST OF KAYANGEL, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS SITUATED JUST
TO THE WEST OF A 281800Z PGTW SATELLITE FIX WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
INTENSITY OF 25 KNOTS IS CONSISTENT WITH RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES AND FURTHER SUPPORTED BY
EARLIER ASCAT DATA INDICATING 20-25 KNOT WINDS NEAR THE CENTER OF
CIRCULATION. TD 04W IS TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF
A SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST. FLARING
DEEP CONVECTION HAS PERSISTED WITHIN THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) IN THE PRESENCE OF MODERATE
NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE
IN VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS VERY SUPPORTIVE AT 29 TO 30 DEGREES
CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. THIS IS THE FIRST PROGNOSTIC REASONING MESSAGE AND SETS THE
FORECAST PHILOSOPHY.
B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHWESTWARD IN THE
NEAR TERM UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. PERSISTENT VWS SHOULD OFFSET THE FAVORABLE
INFLUENCES OF PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER AND WESTWARD DIFFLUENCE
ALOFT, YIELDING A SLOW INTENSIFICATION RATE. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
DIVERGES REGARDING THE OVERALL SCENARIO, WITH A GROUPING CONSISTING
OF THE GFS, HWRF AND NAVGEM SOLUTIONS REFLECTING A TRACK TOWARD
SOUTHERN TAIWAN OR FARTHER TO THE SOUTH AND THE UKMET AND ECMWF
PREDICTING A TRACK TOWARD NORTHER TAIWAN OR FARTHER TO THE NORTH AND
EAST. THE FIRST 72 HOURS OF THE CURRENT FORECAST FAVORS THE SOUTHERN
GROUPING, CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS.
C. THE TRACK OF TD 04W IN THE EXTENDED RANGE IS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN,
WITH MODEL SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM A STRAIGHT-RUNNING TRACK INTO
NORTHERN PORTION OF THE SOUTH CHINA SEA TO A RECURVATURE TO THE EAST
AND NORTH OF TAIWAN. GIVEN THAT TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO INTENSITY,
ALBEIT SLOWLY, AND THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO
NEARLY MAINTAIN ITS CURRENT POSITION AND ORIENTATION THROUGHOUT THE
FORECAST PERIOD, CONTINUED MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR THE
MIDDLE OF THE MODEL GUIDANCE ENVELOPE IS CONSIDERED MOST PROBABLE.
THUS, THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS POSITIONED NEAR THE MULTI-MODEL
CONSENSUS FOR THE EXTENDED PERIOD, BUT WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. VWS IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE INFLUENCING THE SYSTEM EVEN INTO THE EXTENDED
RANGE AND LAND INTERACTION IS ALSO DISTINCTLY POSSIBLE, SO SLOW
INTENSITY CHANGE IS EXPECTED THROUGHOUT.//
NNNN

[Hayabusa]

WDPN31 PGTW 290300
MSGID/GENADMIN/JOINT TYPHOON WRNCEN PEARL HARBOR HI//
SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR)
WARNING NR 02//
RMKS//
1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS.
2. 6 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS.
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 04W (FOUR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 652 NM EAST
OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON LOW-LEVEL
BANDING EVIDENT IN RECENT MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGERY INCLUDING A
282145Z CORIOLIS PASS. THE INTENSITY OF 30 KNOTS IS SUPPORTED BY
RECENT SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF T2.0 FROM PGTW AND KNES, AND IS
CONSISTENT WITH LEVEL STRUCTURE EVIDENT IN SATELLITE DATA. TD 04W HAS
TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE PERIPHERY OF A SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE SITUATED TO THE NORTH AND EAST OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. DEEP CONVECTION CONTINUES TO FLARE AND WANE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN PORTION OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION AS THE SYSTEM
EXPERIENCES PERSISTENT NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). THE
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE IN VICINITY OF THE LLCC IS VERY SUPPORTIVE AT
29 TO 30 DEGREES CELSIUS.
3. FORECAST REASONING.
A. EXTENDED RANGE FORECAST INTENSITIES HAVE BEEN REDUCED FROM THE
PREVIOUS WARNING. HOWEVER, THERE IS NO MAJOR CHANGE TO THE FORECAST
PHILOSOPHY FROM THE PREVIOUS WARNING.
B. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD IN THE NEAR TERM
UNDER THE CONTINUED STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGING TO
THE NORTH AND EAST. VWS WILL PERSIST THROUGH TAU 72, LIMITING
INTENSIFICATION TO A SLOW RATE DESPITE PASSAGE OVER VERY WARM WATER
AN FAVORABLE SOUTHWESTWARD DIFFLUENCE ALOFT. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK
FORECAST GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT, WITH A GROUPING CONSISTING OF THE
GEFS ENSEMBLE AND HWRF MODELS PREDICTING A TRACK TO THE SOUTH OF
TAIWAN AND THE UKMET, NAVGEM AND ECMWF PREDICTING A TRACK FARTHER TO
THE NORTH. THE CURRENT FORECAST IS CONSERVATIVELY CONSISTENT WITH THE
PREVIOUS JTWC TRACK FORECAST AND CURRENT MULTI-MODEL CONSENSUS
THROUGH TAU 72. THE EXACT TRACK WILL DEPEND ON THE AS YET UNCERTAIN
ORIENTATION OF THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE DURING THIS PERIOD.
C. TD 04W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN WEAKENING IN THE EXTENDED RANGE IN
RESPONSE TO INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND POTENTIAL LAND
INTERACTION. NUMERICAL MODEL TRACK FORECAST SPREAD IS PARTICULARLY
PRONOUNCED IN THE EXTENDED RANGE. A FEW CONSENSUS MODELS DEPICT TD
04W TURNING WESTWARD AND INTERACTING WITH A DEVELOPING CIRCULATION IN
THE NORTHERN SOUTH CHINA SEA, WHILE OTHER MODELS DEPICT TD 04W
MAINTAINING A NORTHWESTWARD TRACK OR TURNING POLEWARD ALONG THE
STEERING RIDGE PERIPHERY. THE CURRENT TRACK FORECAST IS WEIGHTED
TOWARD THE NORTHWESTWARD AND POLEWARD TRACK GROUPING BASED ON
EXPECTATIONS OF SLOW BUT SUFFICIENT NEAR TERM INTENSIFICATION.
OVERALL, THERE IS LOW CONFIDENCE IN THE CURRENT JTWC TRACK FORECAST.//
NNNN